Hultzen or Bauer?

[allstar1579]

I played against a kid ,who after his freshman season at Maryland threw 167 pitches in a wood bat league. He is still pitching in the red sox minor leagues. That is pitching away from contact, not 130

I've talked to people with first hand experience that all he's concerned with is the strikeout and has no intention of pitching to contact. That is also pitching away from contact.

Hey everyone has their own opinions on people, mine is that he is going to get eaten up in the pros, that's all. There's no right or wrong.

[Can_of_corn]

If Cole/Rendon/Bundy are off the board...

Starling

Gray

Jungmann

Bauer

Hultzen

Jungmann over both...

From Mayo via twitter:

Draft buzz: Taylor Jungmann's velocity was down in his loss last night, down to 88-91/2 mph. Not sure why, but not good timing

[RVAbird]

From Mayo via twitter:

Hard to be less concerned about that than I am right now.

There is perhaps no college pitcher in the draft with a better track record than Taylor Jungmann.

[eb45]

Only way I'm concerned is if that's because of an injury. Otherwise, I still comfortably like him over both Hultzen and Bauer.

[Sports Guy]

Jungmann over both...

Yep..I would love to know why the Orioles don't seem to be high on him...the college names we have heard are Bradley and Hultzen...why not Jungmann?

[waroriole]

Listening to reports from some guys on here (Stotle, AllStar and more) I'm becoming a bit weary of Bauer and Hultzen. If it goes Cole, Rendon, Bundy I'm not sure who I'd want to take, but I'd like to hear more about Jungmann. I also wonder if they are considering Starling. I haven't been too high on him, but I'd consider him along with Bauer and Hultzen because nobody stands out like the Top 3, IMO.

[allstar1579]

Listening to reports from some guys on here (Stotle, AllStar and more) I'm becoming a bit weary of Bauer and Hultzen. If it goes Cole, Rendon, Bundy I'm not sure who I'd want to take, but I'd like to hear more about Jungmann. I also wonder if they are considering Starling. I haven't been too high on him, but I'd consider him along with Bauer and Hultzen because nobody stands out like the Top 3, IMO.

Keep in mind this is an odd year, I know personally just because I'm not high on some as much as others it doesn't mean I wouldn't take those guys I'm down on over others in other years. There's just so much talent at the top, and if you are looking for one specific pick, you have to kind of rank them based on something. It would take some kind of catastrophic screw up to miss at #4 this year.

[waroriole]

Keep in mind this is an odd year, I know personally just because I'm not high on some as much as others it doesn't mean I wouldn't take those guys I'm down on over others in other years. There's just so much talent at the top, and if you are looking for one specific pick, you have to kind of rank them based on something. It would take some kind of catastrophic screw up to miss at #4 this year.

How would you compare Bauer and Hultzman to guys in recent years? Would they likely go Top 2 in other years? Not knowing what you know now about Machado, would you take Machado over Hultzen or Bauer?

[crissfan172]

I would choose Hultzen. He's a lefty and has the best command in the draft.

[csgordos]

I would take Hultzen. Bauer's delivery as a therapist bothers me in regards to the potential stress placed on the throwing arm. Hopefully for the kid it is never an issue and whoever gets him will get an All-Star pitcher for years to com, especailly if it is us.

[allstar1579]

How would you compare Bauer and Hultzman to guys in recent years? Would they likely go Top 2 in other years? Not knowing what you know now about Machado, would you take Machado over Hultzen or Bauer?

Probably have both right in between Taillon and Machado, with Hultzen a little ahead of Bauer. In hindsight I'd have Machado just above both of them, but that's because he looks better defensively than I thought and I think he'll stay at SS at least for a few years. If he were a 3rd baseman they'd both be over him easy. I like Taillon just a little more than Bundy and would put him right in the middle of the mix with those guys. If I were choosing from Taillon, Bundy, Hultzen and Bauer I could be swayed to pick any of them I think, but my personal preference would probably be Taillon, Hultzen, Bundy, Bauer, with the most miniscule separation between them all.

[RVAbird]

Listening to reports from some guys on here (Stotle, AllStar and more) I'm becoming a bit weary of Bauer and Hultzen. If it goes Cole, Rendon, Bundy I'm not sure who I'd want to take, but I'd like to hear more about Jungmann. I also wonder if they are considering Starling. I haven't been too high on him, but I'd consider him along with Bauer and Hultzen because nobody stands out like the Top 3, IMO.

Here's my take:

Taylor Jungmann – 6-6, 220 – RHP – Texas

Tenth Inning Overall Rank: 6

Physical: Tall and limber with a strong core, Jungmann shows control of his long arms. He is loose and fairly athletic. Shows a surprising amount of body control for such a tall young pitcher, allowing for surprising control/command. He still has a little room for growth in his upper body, leaving a little bit of projection.

Delivery: I was not particularly a fan of Jungmann’s delivery coming into the season. He throws from a low-three-quarters slot and, in the past, tended to sling the ball across his body, pivoting across a stiff landing leg. This caused quite a bit of deception in his delivery and gave hitters (particularly righties) fits, but it did not bode well for future health or consistency of command. Jungmann has effectively addressed those issues this season. He now lands with a softer left leg that is pointed less toward the right-handed hitter and more toward home. He still maintains deception in his delivery, and has not moved the arm slot, but his left leg has less impact, his body isn’t jerking as much as it used to, and the new pivot point allows for better control and command (evidenced by a career low 1.98 BB/9). I no longer have health or command concerns, and his improved body control and cleaner mechanics actually make him an incredibly safe arm.

Stuff: Nothing in Jungmann’s arsenal will wow you, but he commands three potential plus pitches to both sides of the plate. His fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s and Jungmann feeds off it. He has supreme confidence in the pitch, commanding it well and throwing it in any count. His breaking ball, which I’ll call a slurve, is an ever evolving pitch. In the past, he’s thrown a harder, sharper slider that is a good weapon against left-handed hitters. He still throws it, but has leaned on a more traditional curve this season, on which hitters have a tough time squaring up. The more up and down motion of the pitch is a stark contrast to the horizontal movement Jungmann usually generates from his nearly sidearm delivery. The breaking ball is a feel pitch, which Jungmann can adjust in velocity and plane, and provides a weapon against hitters on both sides of the plate. He throws two change-ups, a traditional version of the pitch with good depth and fade and a “screw change,” which is deceptive and falls off the table like a breaking ball. It’s unclear whether Jungmann will keep the screw change in pro ball, as he sometimes telegraphs the pitch and it has been more of a novelty against college hitters, but it’s actually quite effective (and hilarious) when used properly.

The Skinny: Jungman brings advanced feel of three potential plus pitches, adding and subtracting velocity and moving them around the strike zone at will. One small point of concern is his “low” K-rate. He misses bats, but you usually see a top 10 college arm K more than a batter per inning. The fact that Jungmann’s K/9 rate has dipped to 8.51 even with the new bats suggests that one shouldn’t expect big strikeout numbers from him as a pro. It also suggests, however, that Jungmann doesn’t have to pitch for the strikeout to be successful. Along with the lower K-rate, Jungmann is showing the best control and command of his young career. He keeps runners off the base paths by limiting walks and his stuff, along with his deceptive delivery and good command, keeps hitters off-balance. I imagine Jungman posting a K rate in the sixes, a walk rate under 3, and ERA’s consistently under 4. If Jungmann grows a little in the upper body and adds some velocity, he could step into the front of a rotation, but he’s a very safe bet to stick as a successful starter in MLB as soon as Auguest of 2012.

Future Projection: #2 Starter on a contending team, possible ace with a little growth, very high floor.

Grades Current Future

Fastball 55 60

Curve 55 60

Change 50 55/60

Mechanics 55 55/60

Command 50/55 55/60

Control 55 60

OFP 58-60

Link

[waroriole]

Here's my take:

Link

Thanks RVA, I should note that you're also one to expect quality opinions from about these guys.

[Stotle]

Stotle, Can you express your views on Bauer's pitch counts and workload? Thanks.

Don't really have any concerns from a duability standpoint, except that unless he is getting regular MRIs there is just no way to know if there is slow and steady fraying going on. I'd want to see medicals, but that's true of most high-priced arms.

I do think his mechanics, as the currently exist, prevent him from repeating regularly and I have some concern that his command just isn't going to get there. Couple that with his stuff potentially backsliding some when he runs on shorter rest over a longer season, and there is more risk than I would generally want to take on (particularly given the guys more prototypically in my "want" zone).

It's a greyhound vs. rabbit situation. I prefer the prototypical greyhound, but I can understand why someone would roll the dice on Bauer being a rabbit.

[Scrat1]

It's a greyhound vs. rabbit situation. I prefer the prototypical greyhound, but I can understand why someone would roll the dice on Bauer being a rabbit.

Wouldn't Starling be a rabbit?