O's to take Archie Bradley? Nope, Dylan Bundy!

[allstar1579]

Scouts.com also had the O's taking Bradley.

But who did they have us taking 3 days ago?

Gotta watch around the boards today, now that this rumor is out there, some places will adjust based on that info so they look like they had it right. A lot of places Mock based on where they think a player is going to go, not where they should go. Hard to tell the difference.

[allstar1579]

Good, bad, or indifferent: if you go against what the scouts say, either you or the scouts shouldn't be employed by the organization. They're paid to tell you who's the best pick.

This high of a pick the scouts really have little to no impact. This high of a first rounder is pretty much made by the top of the food chain and that's it. The further down the picks go, the more various input you'll see.

[Mizerooskie]

If they pick him and he signs for $5M-ish or less, we'll know why they chose him.

No, we really won't. Would you say the same thing about Hultzen?

[Mizerooskie]

This high of a pick the scouts really have little to no impact. This high of a first rounder is pretty much made by the top of the food chain and that's it. The further down the picks go, the more various input you'll see.

So you think, in a draft that's this close to the top, a GM will just ignore his scouts and go with what scouting services say?

[allstar1579]

I think everyone likes Bradley's upside over Hultzen. I think most people would take anyone in the discussion's upside over Hultzen.

Yep, but Hultzen's floor is WAAAAY higher. People call it "playing safe" but with most HS picks you have to have a little question IF they will ever make it to the majors, because they have so much developing left to do. With Hultzen, it's a question of when he gets there.

[allstar1579]

So you think, in a draft that's this close to the top, a GM will just ignore his scouts and go with what scouting services say?

No, a GM has mostly no input on this. It's the scouting director's decision. None of them listen to scouting services. As you move further into the draft they will start talking with their cross-checkers and area scouts, but at the top of the first round Jordan has seen them all in person and will make his own decision. Hence why he said the Hobgood pick was on him and him alone.

[DrOrioles90210]

Yep, but Hultzen's floor is WAAAAY higher. People call it "playing safe" but with most HS picks you have to have a little question IF they will ever make it to the majors, because they have so much developing left to do. With Hultzen, it's a question of when he gets there.

How does his floor compare to other college guys who also have a higher ceiling though (excluding Cole)?

[RVAbird]

How does his floor compare to other college guys who also have a higher ceiling though (excluding Cole)?

Archie Bradley? Well he could never develop a viable third pitch and end up a solid late reliever. He has three more seasons of development to hurt his arm before he reaches the age of college JR.s. Just about any first round (and also second and third round) arm is safer than Bradley. Hultzen is one of the safest in the draft.

[Fan4Life]

No, we really won't. Would you say the same thing about Hultzen?

Lets put it this way, if there is a pick after us that signs for more than ours, then we'll know. I'm not talking about $50k.

[Mizerooskie]

No, a GM has mostly no input on this. It's the scouting director's decision. None of them listen to scouting services. As you move further into the draft they will start talking with their cross-checkers and area scouts, but at the top of the first round Jordan has seen them all in person and will make his own decision. Hence why he said the Hobgood pick was on him and him alone.

Jordan is a scout, hence his title.

[Crazysilver03]

The Orioles can't afford to pooch this pick and if one of Bundy, Starling or Rendon are there, you've got to take one of them.

Bradley is another Rich Stahl, Matt Hobgood, Adam Loewen etc. waiting to happen.

Based on Jordan's comments, I would think this Bradley thing is a smokescreen unless MacPhail stepped in.

How do you know Buck isn't having a heavy hand in this like you telling us earlier?

[DrOrioles90210]

Archie Bradley? Well he could never develop a viable third pitch and end up a solid late reliever. He has three more seasons of development to hurt his arm before he reaches the age of college JR.s. Just about any first round (and also second and third round) arm is safer than Bradley. Hultzen is one of the safest in the draft.

Sorry, I meant to ask if Hultzen's floor was so much higher than those of the other college arms to take the guy with the lowest ceiling?

[Mizerooskie]

Lets put it this way, if there is a pick after us that signs for more than ours, then we'll know. I'm not talking about $50k.

Starling will likely sign for a LOT more than Hultzen. It's a completely plausible scenario that we take Hultzen before Starling is picked. So again, we won't know.

[Crazysilver03]

Wieters and Matusz were consensus top 10 picks. Machado was also a consensus top 10. Rowell, Hobgood and Snyder have been busts thus far and were "reach" picks by Jordan.

Neither Rowell nor Snyder were reach picks. The only reach pick was Hobgood.

[allstar1579]

How does his floor compare to other college guys who also have a higher ceiling though (excluding Cole)?

Floor could be what you see right now, which may never make it out of A ball. That's what is so hard about HS guys, you are taking them based on their potential which is sky high, but there is no guarantee they will ever develop. The further they have to go developmentally, the more risk, and Bradley needs to work on command, needs to develop a 3rd and 4th pitch, and needs to see how his velo is going to play based on a pro schedule. Lots of variables. Some of the college guys at the top could step into Frederick or Bowie right now, I'm not 100% convinced Bradley could pitch in Delmarva right now although I want to think he could.