How much would you pay...

[wildcard]

Lee: 6/78

Soriano: 5/65

ARam: 6/78

Zito: 3/30

Schmidt: 2/20 with an option

Mulder: Too early to tell. Is he healthy?

Pettitte: 1/7.5 with an option

Huff: no offer, does no hit lefties, does no fill O's need.

Nomar: 2/19

C Wilson: 3/16.5

Zaun: 2/4

[DrungoHazewood]

Very happy to see that but even with a high payroll we need to be smart about the way we spend money.

Exactly. Smart spending. One of the key things to remember about free agents is that their perceived value can be way out of whack with their performance because they're the best available that year. Lee and Soriano have the possibility of being this year's Pavano and Wright, who got, frankly, insane contracts for their level of performance because they were the best of a poor free agent class. Lee is a healthier version of Jay Gibbons, and Soriano has a career OBP that's below-average. They're good players, but if you were picking the MLB on a playground they might be in the 2nd or 3rd 25 in a good year.

At their absolute best they're top 30, 50 players in baseball. Lee's cleared an .850 OPS and a .500 slugging twice in an eight year career. Soriano has had some odd splits, his walk uptick is partially due to a career high in IBBs, and he's defensively suspect. But they'll probably each be paid like perennial MVP candidates for their age 31-36 seasons.

I'd have less problem overpaying for Soriano than Lee, but unless something bizarre happens I wouldn't even get into the bidding. You can't expect to compete with teams with double your payroll when you're paying $13M a year for .825 OPS outfielders with defensive issues.

[clapdiddy]

If my choices are between Lee and Soriano, I'd have to go after Soriano.

Lee reminds me of Manny Ramirez in LF, without the superior stats. He's got good stats, but not Manny stats. With Manny, you can tolerate some bad D because of what he brings to the offense.

I'd rather just sign Soriano. I'm sure his defense has gotten better since the beginning of the season. He's got speed (which I know will probably decline) that Lee doesn't have. He's also got the bat speed, and I think that's important. I can just see him being more productive over the next 5 years. He's also had the experience of playing in the AL East, which I think would only help us.

[Sports Guy]

Exactly. Smart spending. One of the key things to remember about free agents is that their perceived value can be way out of whack with their performance because they're the best available that year. Lee and Soriano have the possibility of being this year's Pavano and Wright, who got, frankly, insane contracts for their level of performance because they were the best of a poor free agent class. Lee is a healthier version of Jay Gibbons, and Soriano has a career OBP that's below-average. They're good players, but if you were picking the MLB on a playground they might be in the 2nd or 3rd 25 in a good year.

At their absolute best they're top 30, 50 players in baseball. Lee's cleared an .850 OPS and a .500 slugging twice in an eight year career. Soriano has had some odd splits, his walk uptick is partially due to a career high in IBBs, and he's defensively suspect. But they'll probably each be paid like perennial MVP candidates for their age 31-36 seasons.

I'd have less problem overpaying for Soriano than Lee, but unless something bizarre happens I wouldn't even get into the bidding. You can't expect to compete with teams with double your payroll when you're paying $13M a year for .825 OPS outfielders with defensive issues.

Agree with this post completely....What are your thoughts on Aramis Ramirez?

[bgfield]

Didn't see this posted here but Lee decided to stick with his former agent. The article also mentions that the Astros are interested and that Lee owns a ranch outside of Houston and is "seriously interested" in the Astros. If true, sounds like the O's would have to blow him away with an offer if we really wanted him.

[wildcard]

Exactly. Smart spending. One of the key things to remember about free agents is that their perceived value can be way out of whack with their performance because they're the best available that year. Lee and Soriano have the possibility of being this year's Pavano and Wright, who got, frankly, insane contracts for their level of performance because they were the best of a poor free agent class. Lee is a healthier version of Jay Gibbons, and Soriano has a career OBP that's below-average. They're good players, but if you were picking the MLB on a playground they might be in the 2nd or 3rd 25 in a good year.

At their absolute best they're top 30, 50 players in baseball. Lee's cleared an .850 OPS and a .500 slugging twice in an eight year career. Soriano has had some odd splits, his walk uptick is partially due to a career high in IBBs, and he's defensively suspect. But they'll probably each be paid like perennial MVP candidates for their age 31-36 seasons.

I'd have less problem overpaying for Soriano than Lee, but unless something bizarre happens I wouldn't even get into the bidding. You can't expect to compete with teams with double your payroll when you're paying $13M a year for .825 OPS outfielders with defensive issues.

I think you are underestimating Lee here.

From 2004-2006 Lee is carrying a .858 OPS in addition to a 30 HR per season and over 100 RBI. I think to evaluate him on what him did prior to 2004 has little to do was how he projects forward.

To equate him with Jay is also misleading. Jay doesn't hit lefties well which is about 30% of the pitchers. That along with his injuries (which you mentioned) limits his value. The perception of Jay is colored by the fact that I think most of us are disappointed with his production compared to his contract at this point.

I do agree about Lee's defense.

I think that you have to look at the O's need, the players available and what the O's have to trade to see if Lee fits:

1) I think the need for someone who hit lefties is a major one for the O's- Lee fits.

2) There are few players available that will be middle of the lineup protection for Tejada - Lee fits.

3) The only thing I see the O's have to trade are RLo, JJ Johnson and Finch. That package may bring a leftfielder but a doubt it is a middle of the lineup leftfielder.

When you throw into the equation that this is the 2nd year on the Flanny/Duq building program and they probably only get three years to put the O's into contention, I think the O's have to do something this off season.

The conclusion that I come up with is the Lee may be the best fit available for a #5 hitter who hits lefties and plays leftfield or 1B.

[Hank Scorpio]

I'd almost bet you'll see Lee in an Orioles uniform next year. Not saying I want him but he'll fill the hole inLF and the middle of our lineup.

I'd almost take you up on it, too!!!

[Sports Guy]

IMO, the only difference between Jay and Lee is health and about .010 points in OBP.

Now obviously health is a big one BUT is a healthy Carlos Lee worth 10 million a year more than a healthy Jay Gibbons? No way in hell.

That is why i say 4/36 for Lee. I know it won't land him because there are several stupid teams out there that will overpay for a guy who isn't all that great but looks great because he is a big name in a weak FA class.

[TonySoprano]

From 2004-2006 Lee is carrying a .858 OPS in addition to a 30 HR per season and over 100 RBI. I think to evaluate him on what him did prior to 2004 has little to do was how he projects forward.

That's a curious statement since his 2003 season was better than his 2005. Why do you make the cutoff for your projections at 2004?

[Sports Guy]

I guess if you want to take Jay Gibbons ceiling and Carlos Lee's floor and compare them, then yes, they're pretty close. And that's if Gibbons stays healthy. You're ignoring a lot of things if you say the only difference between the two is .010 points in OBP.

Like what? Jay can be a 30/100/830-850 guy just like Lee. Neither strikes out alot.

I think the difference is in the walks and the consistency of Lee, as he is always healthy.

However, if Jay were to stay healthy, i have no doubt in my mind that he puts up very similar stats to Lee.

[TonySoprano]

Gibbons had an OPS+ in 2005 of 123, which is better than Lee's 110. The issue is getting Gibbons to play all 162 games like Lee.

[Sports Guy]

So it's just based on your feelings and nothing concrete. When has he put up stats like Lee's best?

If Jay puts up 30/100/830-850, then he'll be underpaid and we'll be lucky. Unfortunately he's never put up all of those numbers in one year, so it's interesting how sure you are that he'll do it.

Gibbons hit 28 homers a few years ago and 26 last year...He did that in well under 500 ab's. So, project that out to 550-600 ab's and you get a 30+ homer guy.

Last season, his OPS was 833. This year he was well on his way to that again and then got hurt. Now, he has a 811 OPS. Certainly reasonable to think he can get in that 830-850 range this year as well.

Give him 500-600 ab's and i think he puts up similar numbers to Lee.

Now, will he ever be able to do that? That is a good question and that is why Lee has more value. But strictly on a statiscal and talent basis, Carlos Lee is not that far ahead of Gibbons at all.

Last year, Carlos Lee had a WARP of 4...Gibbons was 3.6. Now, in 2004, Lee was much much better but they were close in 2003 as well.

[Sports Guy]

Gibbons had an OPS+ in 2005 of 123, which is better than Lee's 110. The issue is getting Gibbons to play all 162 games like Lee.

And for their careers, Lee has a 111 OPS+ and Jay has a 106 OPS+ and Jay's is brought down from his injury plagued 2004 seaosn where his OPS+ was 74.

Jay's 123 matches Lee career high OPS+ as well.

[Sports Guy]

Lee's career high OPS is .890 something. Gibbons' is .836. Save me the trouble of looking it up. What's the OPS+ mean relative to those numbers?

It takes park effects and things like that into account. MIller Park is a good hitters park, better than OPACY i think.

[NJOriolesFan]

However, having some guys (like Gibbons, Roberts and Markakis and 4 of the 5 starting pitchers and closer) who are very underpaid allows you to overpay a few just as long as they are gone or in the last year of their contracts when you have to start paying the other guys.

It won't happen but besides a couple smart relief pickups (maybe), I would sign two of those players, if available:

Aramis Ramirez for 5/$75

Nomar Garciaparra for 2/$16 with a chance with incentives and an option to make it 3/$30 or 3/$33.

I would also sign Zaun for a year or two.

I would also sign Jose Cruz jr. to platoon with Patterson.

Roberts-2b

Markakis-rf

Tejada-ss

Ramirez-3b

Nomar-1b/dh

Mora-lf

Gibbons-dh/1b

Hernandez-c

Patterson/Cruz-cf