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Hardy or Reyes?


JTrea81

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I am not going to pretend I am an expert in the stats and what the birds should and should not do in regards to player moves. Mostly I read just to see what others think.

I do have this question for those who consistently post that the Orioles should not sign/trade for this or that player because it is only going to mean + so many games in the win column (which is highly subjective to begin with).

My question is: What do you want the birds to do? From what I see in your posts is that no player is worth the price they will cost. They have to keep taking steps IMHO to get better a little at a time. The last offseason held probably 3 or 4 steps in the right direction. The pitching staff takes a few more steps seemingly monthly, Fielder would be a big step. Pretty soon those steps lead to a trot, from there a leap. From my years of watching sports I have seen teams and individuals take giant strides forward out of nowhere, strides that "shocked" the experts and fans. I would like the O's to be that team, for that they need to first take the steps, begin to run, and then they can take the leap.

Spending money and getting lucky are equivalent to energy boosters and power bars, they help. I understand that a bad contract can hurt for years, but without risk there is no reward. It seems many are risk adverse to the point that it is detrimental to progress, that leads only to stagnation. This team has been stagnant for a long time, it is time to take the cement shoes off. The GM seems to make good decisions far more often then not. At some point you have to believe and I know it is hard, trust. We cannot keep waiting for the perfect storm of circumstances to arrive. The broth is almost ready, it is time to add the meat and potatoes.

OK, I am done with cliches. :D

Go O's

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Albert Belle is just one example. And yes, we did get unlucky. That said, while star quality is nice, it's not going to improve us all that much. With Fielder, an 80 win team maybe becomes an 85 win team. Is that really worth spending well over $20 mil a year? Is it really worth committing 6 or 7 years? The answer is that it would be a foolish waste of cash.

How many more wins might the Orioles have right now if Fielder/A Gonz had been batting cleanup instead of the Great Mr. Lee? I'd bet the difference this year would be 5 or 6 games. I would be interested to go back and insert Fielder's stats in place of Lee's ...It would be a lot of work and the situational stuff would have to be included. But I don't get how you can generically say there wouldn't be much of a difference.

Lee Avg .229- R 20- h 40- 2B 6- HR 4- rbi15---K 46 - BB 18- SLG .331 OPS .632

Fielder Avg .305- R39- H 72- 2B 17 HR19- RBI 58 K37- --BB 31- SLG .627 OPS 1042

Wow ...Not much difference ????

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How many more wins might the Orioles have right now if Fielder/A Gonz had been batting cleanup instead of the Great Mr. Lee? I'd bet the difference this year would be 5 or 6 games. I would be interested to go back and insert Fielder's stats in place of Lee's ...It would be a lot of work and the situational stuff would have to be included. But I don't get how you can generically say there would be much of a difference.

Lee Avg .229- R 20- h 40- 2B 6- HR 4- rbi15---K 46 - BB 18- SLG .331 OPS .632

Fielder Avg .305- R39- H 72- 2B 17 HR19- RBI 58 K37- --BB 31- SLG .627 OPS 1042

Wow ...Not much difference ????

Very very outside chance Fielder is worth more than 5-6 wins for the entire season over DLee. You are wrong about that estimation.

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Very very outside chance Fielder is worth more than 5-6 wins for the entire season over DLee. You are wrong about that estimation.

This is where WAR is a tricky bed fellow though. Fielder has created 63 runs so far this year. Lee 17. Let's add 10 to Lee's numbers for missed games purposes. If you do that Fielder actually would give the Orioles a neutral run differential on the year. But if you think back to situationally for the Orioles, 36 runs in certain games would have netted us way more wins than that. Give we're 3 games under now, give me even a 920 OPS at 1b and I bet you the Orioles are easily 5 games over .500 right now.

Applied to games and situations, especially the first 60 here, I think you could make a pretty good argument the O's would have won at least 3 or 4 games they lost if they had Prince, maybe more. Fielder has struck out less, he's walked more. He's hit for power, he's hit with guys on. I know WAR can tell you a lot, but in terms of pieces of where this O's team could be right now...we're getting below replacement level from Lee, -.4. So at current trends, is already 3.3 WAR better. At this pace, it'd be 6. It might not finish that way, but Lee is going to have to play a lot better than he has.

I'm not sure Fielder stays this hot, but through this point in the season, Fielder would definitely helped us win 3 more games.

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Very very outside chance Fielder is worth more than 5-6 wins for the entire season over DLee. You are wrong about that estimation.

You might be right and I certainly understand that you know more about stats than I do....But considering all the 1 run games that we have lost. I dont expect Lee to recover ...Just my opinion. There is no reason to believe Fielder wont produce the numbers he is on a pace to get.

I think Fielder will hit between 40-50 homers . Lee will be lucky to hit 15 IMO ...Lee would have to go on a tear to drive in more 50 RBIs at this point. Fielder should drive in at least 110. Really that 60 more runs... hardly a small difference.

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You might be right and I certainly understand that you know more about stats than I do....But considering all the 1 run games that we have lost. I dont expect Lee to recover ...Just my opinion. There is no reason to believe Fielder wont produce the numbers he is on a pace to get.

I think Fielder will hit between 40-50 homers . Lee will be lucky to hit 15 IMO ...Lee would have to go on a tear to drive in more 50 RBIs at this point. Fielder should drive in at least 110. Really that 60 more runs... hardly a small difference.

Well, the RBI example you give is not really how things work and you aren't taking into account defense.

I do think its possible that Fielder has a WAR of 5-6 higher than DLee this year but its not a great chance. DLee has usually had a better or similar WAR to Fielder throughout their careers.

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Well, the RBI example you give is not really how things work and you aren't taking into account defense.

I do think its possible that Fielder has a WAR of 5-6 higher than DLee this year but its not a great chance. DLee has usually had a better or similar WAR to Fielder throughout their careers.

Sure but he's 35/36 ... Usually about the time BB players are in serious decline. A common mistake the Orioles continue to make.

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Well, the RBI example you give is not really how things work and you aren't taking into account defense.

I do think its possible that Fielder has a WAR of 5-6 higher than DLee this year but its not a great chance. DLee has usually had a better or similar WAR to Fielder throughout their careers.

Lee has a negative WAR right now. I mean...what tells you he's anywhere near breaking out of that? But even since he got back from his injury his OPS has gone down. He's K'd 5 times and walked none. There is no indication Lee is going to be better than replacement this year at all. Through 45 games our 1b is slugging 331. Let's not overestimate the value of the Lee right now either.

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Lee has a negative WAR right now. I mean...what tells you he's anywhere near breaking out of that? But even since he got back from his injury his OPS has gone down. He's K'd 5 times and walked none. There is no indication Lee is going to be better than replacement this year at all. Through 45 games our 1b is slugging 331. Let's not overestimate the value of the Lee right now either.

I'm not even remotely doing this.

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Very very outside chance Fielder is worth more than 5-6 wins for the entire season over DLee. You are wrong about that estimation.

So what were you implying in this statement.

I'm not even remotely doing this.

Lee is on pace for a -1 WAR, Fielder is on pace for about a 8.5 WAR. I think it's fair to say he's not remotely close to an 8 win better player, but I'd be surprised if Lee is less than 5 WAR worse than Fielder this year. Especially at this pace and with Milwaukee being in the thick of a play off race? Yeah it's unreasonable to say they'll finish at this pace, but with Lee already being negative and getting worse at hitting, not better, I don't think there is anything unreasonable about saying Fielder is 5-6 wins better.

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So what were you implying in this statement.

Lee is on pace for a -1 WAR, Fielder is on pace for about a 8.5 WAR. I think it's fair to say he's not remotely close to an 8 win better player, but I'd be surprised if Lee is less than 5 WAR worse than Fielder this year. Especially at this pace and with Milwaukee being in the thick of a play off race? Yeah it's unreasonable to say they'll finish at this pace, but with Lee already being negative and getting worse at hitting, not better, I don't think there is anything unreasonable about saying Fielder is 5-6 wins better.

Well, obviously I don't feel those WAR nubmers will stay on the same pace...But I do agree that there is a chance Fielder could be 5-6 wins better..but its an outside chance IMO.
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Well, obviously I don't feel those WAR nubmers will stay on the same pace...But I do agree that there is a chance Fielder could be 5-6 wins better..but its an outside chance IMO.

But taking this back to the original thread title. I think there are positions where we have really good value and ones where we don't. At DH/1b right now we're really hurting ourselves in the larger scheme of things. I don't think it'd be smart to go out and spend at SS when we have an in house option that isn't going to lend us an option to get quality WAR back in return.

The Lee/Fielder discrepancy shows that we have areas that need help, but SS right now doesn't appear to be that place to spend.

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How many more wins might the Orioles have right now if Fielder/A Gonz had been batting cleanup instead of the Great Mr. Lee? I'd bet the difference this year would be 5 or 6 games. I would be interested to go back and insert Fielder's stats in place of Lee's ...It would be a lot of work and the situational stuff would have to be included. But I don't get how you can generically say there wouldn't be much of a difference.

Lee Avg .229- R 20- h 40- 2B 6- HR 4- rbi15---K 46 - BB 18- SLG .331 OPS .632

Fielder Avg .305- R39- H 72- 2B 17 HR19- RBI 58 K37- --BB 31- SLG .627 OPS 1042

Wow ...Not much difference ????

Assuming that those numbers were to hold up in 2012 (VERY unlikely... at least for Fielder), and you're talking about an 8-9 win difference, then we DO turn into a high-80 win team next year (assuming all else stays the same).

That said, this is a contract year for Fielder. Don't expect those numbers to hold up over the course of the season... and ABSOLUTELY do not count on numbers like that for 2012. I'd expect a 5-6 win difference... which is nice for 2012 (a year we still won't be in contention no matter what moves we make).... but then what do we do WHEN Fielder starts to decline over the course of his bear of a contract?

As for Reyes.... it would be BEYOND stupid to sign him to his demands. Especially given that we have a couple SS prospects in our system already. That's not to count on Machado or anyone in particular... but I'd far rather lock Hardy up for a shorter contract (would probably take 4 years which is OK) and see what happens with the prospects. Four years is plenty of time for us to evaluate Hardy/Machado/Schoop/etc AND make alternate plans if Machado/Schoop don't work out.

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Assuming that those numbers were to hold up in 2012 (VERY unlikely... at least for Fielder), and you're talking about an 8-9 win difference, then we DO turn into a high-80 win team next year (assuming all else stays the same).

That said, this is a contract year for Fielder. Don't expect those numbers to hold up over the course of the season... and ABSOLUTELY do not count on numbers like that for 2012. I'd expect a 5-6 win difference... which is nice for 2012 (a year we still won't be in contention no matter what moves we make).... but then what do we do WHEN Fielder starts to decline over the course of his bear of a contract?

As for Reyes.... it would be BEYOND stupid to sign him to his demands. Especially given that we have a couple SS prospects in our system already. That's not to count on Machado or anyone in particular... but I'd far rather lock Hardy up for a shorter contract (would probably take 4 years which is OK) and see what happens with the prospects. Four years is plenty of time for us to evaluate Hardy/Machado/Schoop/etc AND make alternate plans if Machado/Schoop don't work out.

We have 1 SS prospect...Schoop isn't a SS and will not be staying there.

Reyes is a better player than Fielder.

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I have been saying there is a simple formula for situations where we should go after Reyes.

1. He can't get the contract he wants and will do a 1-2 year deal. AND

2. We cannot re-sign Hardy. (Reyes won't play 2B in a rebound contract).

OR

1. He has to weaken his demands and we give him a good sized contract and play him at 2B.

Anything else I view as silly. He won't sniff being as valuable as his contract. And I know that very few FAs are, but the contract numbers that he wants (at least the ones floating around) pretty much assure the contract won't be worth it.

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