Hardy or Reyes?

[HokieOs]

I have been saying there is a simple formula for situations where we should go after Reyes.

1. He can't get the contract he wants and will do a 1-2 year deal. AND

2. We cannot re-sign Hardy. (Reyes won't play 2B in a rebound contract).

OR

1. He has to weaken his demands and we give him a good sized contract and play him at 2B.

Anything else I view as silly. He won't sniff being as valuable as his contract. And I know that very few FAs are, but the contract numbers that he wants (at least the ones floating around) pretty much assure the contract won't be worth it.

And #1 has about NO chance to happen. Even if his demands get pushed back a bit, I'm guessing SOMEONE will sign him up for NO LESS than a 5/70 type contract... which would STILL be way too much for him. If he could come down to a 3/45 type contract, I'd be more willing to listen.... If someone offered me a 3/45 contract I might listen too. I'm equally as likely to end up with a 3/45 contract as Reyes is to having to settle on that.

Extend Hardy.... we have a solid SS for 100-125 games out of the year. HOPEFULLY by 2014 (the 3rd year of Hardy's 4 year deal), we have Machado in the wings at which point Hardy could either change positions, become a valuable trade commodity.... or they could completely co-exist with Machado sliding from 3B to SS when Hardy is injured.

[rhall]

Not $30M, but I think Gil Meche walked away from over $10M earlier this year.

As was said, definitely the exception, but yes, Meche walked away from $12.4 million, and handled his demise as a pitcher and eventual retirement with the ultimate "what's best for the team & organization" attitude (source). Classy. Smart? Maybe not. But classy.

Sorry that this isn't that pertinent to the purpose of the thread, but I wanted to plug the Meche/Royals story because I find it very interesting. If you can drop the time to read Joe Posnanski's long article linked above, do it.

On the Hardy/Reyes comparison. I prefer Reyes as a player, but considering expected contract demands, I'd be very happy to pursue a Hardy extension instead. Also, I'll be surprised if Fielder wants to come here, but I'd love the O's to make a run at convincing him, something I don't think would happen with a Reyes signing. Do you think a Hardy signing could actually help attract Fielder since they've played together?

[Roll Tide]

Assuming that those numbers were to hold up in 2012 (VERY unlikely... at least for Fielder), and you're talking about an 8-9 win difference, then we DO turn into a high-80 win team next year (assuming all else stays the same).

That said, this is a contract year for Fielder. Don't expect those numbers to hold up over the course of the season... and ABSOLUTELY do not count on numbers like that for 2012. I'd expect a 5-6 win difference... which is nice for 2012 (a year we still won't be in contention no matter what moves we make).... but then what do we do WHEN Fielder starts to decline over the course of his bear of a contract?

As for Reyes.... it would be BEYOND stupid to sign him to his demands. Especially given that we have a couple SS prospects in our system already. That's not to count on Machado or anyone in particular... but I'd far rather lock Hardy up for a shorter contract (would probably take 4 years which is OK) and see what happens with the prospects. Four years is plenty of time for us to evaluate Hardy/Machado/Schoop/etc AND make alternate plans if Machado/Schoop don't work out.

I dont know how you can possibly say that. 1st Fielder is in his prime ...He could easily surpass 35 homers & 110 RBIs as his numbers the last 4-5 season suggest that. 2nd theres no reason to believe Lee will recover. He looks like he's out of gas to me. The difference is 20 Homers & 60 RBIs minimum. As far as his 2012 numbers your talking out of your back side...Totally a uneducated statement! Fielder has averaged 38 homers the last 5 years that had nothing to do with a free agent contract. 105 RBIs per season the last 5 seasons that had nothing to do with a contract year. Nearly 100 walks per season the last 4 years that had nothing to do with a contract year.

As for Reyes ...I'd rather have Fielder of the two...Hardy can play SS until Machado is ready and can move to 2B. Im not concerned about that ...What I'd like to see is a leadoff hitter so Hardy can bat 2 in the lineup.

[HokieOs]

I dont know how you can possibly say that. 1st Fielder is in his prime ...He could easily surpass 35 homers & 110 RBIs as his numbers the last 4-5 season suggest that. 2nd theres no reason to believe Lee will recover. He looks like he's out of gas to me. The difference is 20 Homers & 60 RBIs minimum. As far as his 2012 numbers your talking out of your back side...Totally a uneducated statement!

You may need to read what I wrote again. You took WAYYYYY too much out of what I typed. Another way to word what I said is that Fielder and Lee won't end up being THIS far apart either at the end of 2011 or in 2012 as they are now. I think Lee is washed up (I thought this when he was signed and thought it was a pretty bad move)... but Fielder isn't likely going to keep up his 2011 numbers all year.... or in 2012. As a matter of fact, he tends to go back and forth with years.... following a great year with just a good one. But even in 2012... while his HRs may stay the same.... his WHOLE numbers aren't likely to stay as high as they are now. And they REALLY aren't likely to do that again in 2012... the first year of a new contract, in a new league (if he comes to Baltimore).

Fielder has averaged 38 homers the last 5 years that had nothing to do with a free agent contract. 105 RBIs per season the last 5 seasons that had nothing to do with a contract year. Nearly 100 walks per season the last 4 years that had nothing to do with a contract year.

As for Reyes ...I'd rather have Fielder of the two...Hardy can play SS until Machado is ready and can move to 2B. Im not concerned about that ...What I'd like to see is a leadoff hitter so Hardy can bat 2 in the lineup.

I agree that between Reyes and Fielder that I'd rather have Fielder (I think Reyes has the potential to be a COMPLETE waste of money for whoever signs him). Fielder will at least be a very good player for a couple years. But it would be foolish for a team like us, who is NOWHERE NEAR contention to sign him to a very expensive, long term contract. It's called short-term tunnel vision thinking. Instead of a 75-80 win team, we're looking at maybe a 82-87 win team.

If 1B were our only hole... or one of just a couple holes, then by all means, sign him up. But when we have holes at 1B, 2B, LF, the pen, the back end of the rotation, and maybe even RF, we have more important things to do then to spend a large chunk of the team's money at plugging just one of those holes... even if it's a very big plug.

[JTrea81]

If 1B were our only hole... or one of just a couple holes, then by all means, sign him up. But when we have holes at 1B, 2B, LF, the pen, the back end of the rotation, and maybe even RF, we have more important things to do then to spend a large chunk of the team's money at plugging just one of those holes... even if it's a very big plug.

Trade for Alonso for LF/1B/DH, and sign Reyes for SS to move to 2B eventually and Fielder for 1B/DH - LF, 1B and 2B solved.

[Roll Tide]

You may need to read what I wrote again. You took WAYYYYY too much out of what I typed. Another way to word what I said is that Fielder and Lee won't end up being THIS far apart either at the end of 2011 or in 2012 as they are now. I think Lee is washed up (I thought this when he was signed and thought it was a pretty bad move)... but Fielder isn't likely going to keep up his 2011 numbers all year.... or in 2012. As a matter of fact, he tends to go back and forth with years.... following a great year with just a good one. But even in 2012... while his HRs may stay the same.... his WHOLE numbers aren't likely to stay as high as they are now. And they REALLY aren't likely to do that again in 2012... the first year of a new contract, in a new league (if he comes to Baltimore).

I agree that between Reyes and Fielder that I'd rather have Fielder (I think Reyes has the potential to be a COMPLETE waste of money for whoever signs him). Fielder will at least be a very good player for a couple years. But it would be foolish for a team like us, who is NOWHERE NEAR contention to sign him to a very expensive, long term contract. It's called short-term tunnel vision thinking. Instead of a 75-80 win team, we're looking at maybe a 82-87 win team.

If 1B were our only hole... or one of just a couple holes, then by all means, sign him up. But when we have holes at 1B, 2B, LF, the pen, the back end of the rotation, and maybe even RF, we have more important things to do then to spend a large chunk of the team's money at plugging just one of those holes... even if it's a very big plug.

Sorry if I didn't get what you were thinking compared to what you typed. LOL. But let's try it again....Fielder numbers do dip to high 800 OPS every other year it seems.... Can you remember the last time the Orioles got that out of a 1B? Palmeiro round one? Actually they got one out of Huff but you get the point.

The difference between Fielder and Lee will depend on if Lee recovers which I don't think he will. Fielders actually on pace to hit over forty and drive in 160 rbis so I was lowballing 35 and 110. If Lee plays in 2012 I doubt he even plays for the Orioles so the comparison won't matter.

[ledzepp8]

I dont know how you can possibly say that. 1st Fielder is in his prime ...He could easily surpass 35 homers & 110 RBIs as his numbers the last 4-5 season suggest that. 2nd theres no reason to believe Lee will recover. He looks like he's out of gas to me. The difference is 20 Homers & 60 RBIs minimum. As far as his 2012 numbers your talking out of your back side...Totally a uneducated statement! Fielder has averaged 38 homers the last 5 years that had nothing to do with a free agent contract. 105 RBIs per season the last 5 seasons that had nothing to do with a contract year. Nearly 100 walks per season the last 4 years that had nothing to do with a contract year.

As for Reyes ...I'd rather have Fielder of the two...Hardy can play SS until Machado is ready and can move to 2B. Im not concerned about that ...What I'd like to see is a leadoff hitter so Hardy can bat 2 in the lineup.

Yep all that and he's still been worth less WAR (according to baseball reference) than Nick Markakis (coming into this season). Who would give Nick Markakis the kind of contract people are whining to give Prince Fielder?

[Roll Tide]

Yep all that and he's still been worth less WAR (according to baseball reference) than Nick Markakis (coming into this season). Who would give Nick Markakis the kind of contract people are whining to give Prince Fielder?

War is a misleading stat..Markakis has never hit any where need 40 bombs. This guy has driven in 140 in a season. Those are facts ....Nick can't touch...He a offensive force that the Orioles haven't had since Palmeiro.

[ledzepp8]

War is a misleading stat..Markakis has never hit any where need 40 bombs. This guy has driven in 140 in a season. Those are facts ....Nick can't touch...He a offensive force that the Orioles haven't had since Palmeiro.

All that's true and still Nick has been the more valuable player. Would you give Nick the kind of money you want to give Fielder?

[DrungoHazewood]

War is a misleading stat..Markakis has never hit any where need 40 bombs. This guy has driven in 140 in a season. Those are facts ....Nick can't touch...He a offensive force that the Orioles haven't had since Palmeiro.

I think it's dead on. Fielder has never had a year where he was a good fielder at a key position. He's never had a year where he wasn't a bad fielder at an easy position. He's never had a year where he didn't cost his team runs on the basepaths. Despite a very good OBP he's only scored 100 runs twice. He's had the benefit of tons of intentional walks padding his OBP that Nick doesn't.

In a normal year the difference between Fielder and Markakis is that Fielder hits two or three times as many homers and Nick does everything else better. It's like the comp that Bill James did between Craig Biggio and Ken Griffey in their primes. The general assumption was the Griffey was far better, but when he broke it down you saw that Biggio did everything better than Griffey except hit for power, and there was a good argument that Biggio was the more valuable player.

[HokieOs]

Sorry if I didn't get what you were thinking compared to what you typed. LOL. But let's try it again....Fielder numbers do dip to high 800 OPS every other year it seems.... Can you remember the last time the Orioles got that out of a 1B? Palmeiro round one? Actually they got one out of Huff but you get the point.

The difference between Fielder and Lee will depend on if Lee recovers which I don't think he will. Fielders actually on pace to hit over forty and drive in 160 rbis so I was lowballing 35 and 110. If Lee plays in 2012 I doubt he even plays for the Orioles so the comparison won't matter.

And as has been pointed out by others in this thread... he isn't as valuable as some of his stats seems to indicate. He's an average fielder (no pun intended... and to put it mildly). Now, I'm not sure Markakis is truly "as valuable" as Fielder... but Fielder isn't worth 2.5-3X what Markakis is getting either. He's a good player and he'd be welcome for a good price. You don't get good prices in free agency most of the time.

[SrMeowMeow]

So what were you implying in this statement.

Lee is on pace for a -1 WAR, Fielder is on pace for about a 8.5 WAR. I think it's fair to say he's not remotely close to an 8 win better player, but I'd be surprised if Lee is less than 5 WAR worse than Fielder this year. Especially at this pace and with Milwaukee being in the thick of a play off race? Yeah it's unreasonable to say they'll finish at this pace, but with Lee already being negative and getting worse at hitting, not better, I don't think there is anything unreasonable about saying Fielder is 5-6 wins better.

Do you seriously think Fielder is an 8.5 win player? Would you even take the over on 8 WAR looking at just this season? 7 WAR? 6 WAR? I wouldn't.