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Game 2 @ Toronto - Wednesday 6/15


weams

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BLUE JAYS

Yunel Escobar – SS

Corey Patterson – LF

Jose Bautista – RF

Adam Lind – DH

Juan Rivera – 1B

J.P. Arencibia – C

Aaron Hill – 2B

Rajai Davis – CF

Jayson Nix – 3B

Ricky Romero – P (5-6, 3.18 ERA)

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    • This is the point I am hanging on to. I know patience isn't a popular commodity, but the international draft is the other part of the equation for long term viability re drafting pitching and we do seem to have some interesting possibilities. Anxious to see how they "perculate up" this coming year.
    • I agree ... But if its $35 million for 180+ innings of Burnes or $31 Million for Snell I think its a no brainer.  I'd have no problem with Fried and he's only slightly below Burnes...so probably looking at a similar contract ...No?
    • It's part of the litmus. Maybe sure fire is too strong of a word. That litmus includes the injury risk.  Also, Elias's calculus probably has to include this one: if a position player is more likely to stay healthy, then they are also somebody that can be traded as opposed to a pitcher which has a higher likelihood of being shelved prior to making the majors due to arm injuries. Now, the interesting thing, is I thought I read a study recently that broke down college vs. HS players. And college pitchers are more likely to make the majors over position players, but high school position players are more likely over HS pitchers. Might explain his aversion to drafting HS arms, too. 
    • Why Not?   The projected payroll with allocations is approximately $95.3 million dollars. I believe they could afford a $200 million payroll if they really wanted. They had reported revenues in March of 2024 of $328 million dollars annually. https://www.forbes.com/teams/baltimore-orioles/ This is without Rubbenstein going into his own pocket for anything.   Let's say hypothetically wanted to push the payroll to $180 million for argument sake. He could give $35 million per to Burnes, Give Santander or another hitter $20-$25 million, and give a second starter $20-$25 million. Some one mentioned getting Gray in a trade with his old team eating some of his contract....So maybe you can get him for $15 million   Honestly, They could move some veterans ...Mountcastle and Urias save you $10 million. Assuming they are going with Kjerstad or Mayo at 1B you wouldn't need him. The possibilities are plenty. If Rubbenstein isn't willing to make the Orioles a break even proposition he wasn't serious about going after the World Series.
    • They need to supplement with real free agents and hit on their international signings. Right now, they have some intriguing international FA arms, but they are at least 2 years away. The Astros have hit really big on their international signings. Would love to see the O's even have a fraction of that kind of success (Javier, Uquity, Valdez, Garcia). 
    • I would not say that Elias is picking "sure fire" guys with these picks.  He's got a fair bit of guys with high bust potential. I'm not inherently opposed to taking some of those guys, just pointing out something that you also seem to realize given the rest of your post.
    • I believe it's very much an Elias strategy that shows bats as having a higher hit rate of success in the majors *and* they have less injury issues, so he'd rather go with the sure-fire thing instead of drafting those risky picks (pitchers) higher. He's more likely to trade for somebody else's draft pick that showcased some success w/o taking on the injury concerns (see: Cade Povich) as well as even position player for pitcher swap (see: Pirates trade for Patrick Reilly).  We can talk about below average peripherals until the cows come home for some of these college hitters, i.e. Vance Honeycutt, for example.  But they are trying to go for high upside even if there is risk. Even still, I've yet to see a success story out of some of these guys (Fabian, for example), but they've also had a pretty decent hit rate in the past on some of these post-1st round guys, so I'm holding out hope.  That said, we don't have many success stories from the 2022 or 2023 draft class, yet, for guys not named Jackson Holliday (although still TBD on him). I do really like Dylan Beavers, and regardless what you think of Mac Horvath he did go in a package that got us Eflin, so that's an early return. Jud Fabian isn't trending in the right direction, though. Definitely keeping my eye on how Horvath does with the Rays system as well as Cunningham and Josenberger in the O's minors this year.
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