SI: What Texas wants for Tex

[OrioleMagic]

Wow, very mature.

RC/27= Not park adjusted. Not all-inclusive. Not adjusted for position. You're not counting his huge, unexplained fall-off this year. You're not considering that his OBP, which is considered by some to be 3X more important than SLG, is not that great.

I think the infatuation with a 1Bmen who's only OPSing .870 in Texas this year is nuts. True, it's an off year, yes, he is great, is young, would do quite well here--but people make him out to be a 1B guy with a David Ortiz bat, 1000+ OPS, far better than all the other 1B options. A 30 VORP isn't too great. It's worse than Brian Roberts and like 60 or so other people.

Very good? Yes. Very overrated? IMO, yes.

Fight? I'm not picking a fight. I'm expressing my opinions.

Bryan, this just doesn't sound very manly...

[66-70-83-??]

His OPS in 2004 was .893; in 05 it was .808; and yes it is .972 this year, but I would hardly call that an upward trend. He had a bad 03, and is having a bad year this year at home. Does that mean he is a bad hitter at home when the stats over the last four years do add up there? No. He is over an .800 OPS guy, granted. I HAVE SAID THAT. He would be an .850 OPS guy at OPACY with 25-30 HRS and 100 RBI. BUT he is not worth our SS and our top pitcher and would make too much money as a free agent. Is an 800 OPS guy an all-star? That is debatable.

And yes good games at a couple of parks can significantly raise your away stats. Let's see how it looks at the end of the season. The Rangers still have 14 away games, so that could either raise or lower his year end stats.

Who ever said he was worth Miggy and Bedard ?

I don't recall any post where that was the debate.

The debate is about whether he is the "most overrated player" in baseball.

I don't know anyone can call Tex that. He only has three years under his belt and hasn't reached his peak yet.

[BigSteve]

His OPS in 2004 was .893; in 05 it was .808; and yes it is .972 this year, but I would hardly call that an upward trend.

No, it isn't a trend, but is a pretty clear indication that he's a good hitter away from home.

He had a bad 03, and is having a bad year this year at home.

In 03 he had an .811 OPS as a 23 year old rookie. I wouldn't really call that a bad a year.

He would be an .850 OPS guy at OPACY with 25-30 HRS and 100 RBI.

He has a .920 OPS and an .884 road OPS the last three years. I don't see any reason to think that he'll be only an .850 OPS guy. I would think .900 is not unreasonable, and that's certainly an All-Star.

And yes good games at a couple of parks can significantly raise your away stats. Let's see how it looks at the end of the season. The Rangers still have 14 away games, so that could either raise or lower his year end stats.

Yeah, a couple games can affect you either way, but that's the nature of the beast. If you're going to exclude certain games where he's played well, you can go ahead and exclude the ten games a year he's played in a pitcher's park like Safeco Field and the negative impact that had on his numbers.

[OrioleMagic]

On the serious side of things, I am as enamored with Texeira as most. "Hometown slugger". BUT, a safer strategy for a GM/Owner who is planning to spend some money right now, at what likely will be looked back on as "the end of the steroid era", would spend on pitching and defense/speed. A guy like Carl Crawford... I still like Santana and Aybar... I am sure there is a few more out there.

[66-70-83-??]

On the serious side of things, I am as enamored with Texeira as most. "Hometown slugger". BUT, a safer strategy for a GM/Owner who is planning to spend some money right now, at what likely will be looked back on as "the end of the steroid era", would spend on pitching and defense/speed. A guy like Carl Crawford... I still like Santana and Aybar... I am sure there is a few more out there.

I do too. And I would have made that deal.

Although we may be at the end of the steroid era- I would still spend money on a good power hitter if I had the chance. The pitcher took roids every bit as much as the hitters did. Their performances will drop off too.

[Sports Guy]

Thats a reasonable position I was assuming Lee could repeat that year if healthy. But generally I agree. But i do not see where we are over rating him. Do you?

Of course we aren't. This is a case of Bryan looking at one stat and running with it.

[Sports Guy]

850 OPS, 25 homer guy at OPACY?

So basicaly rhbett, you think he is slightly better than Gibbons? That is just laughable.

Just admit you are wrong. Your road OPS theory has been proven wrong. The idea that he is overrated was proven wrong but the stats i showed.

And as 66/70/83 pointed out, this is not a Tejada vs Tex discussion anymore. Bryan said he was overrated and he is wrong, as you are.

[bryanman8]

Bryan said he was overrated and he is wrong, as you are.

Uy guvalt.

We are no worthy, SG! You are always 100% correct! Even with a completely opinionated thing such as 'overratedness', I am wrong, you are right!

[mweb]

Ahhh, a reality check for all the people on here who thought Tex might come somewhat cheaply. Of course I haven't seen any of them admit their folly.

And while Bryan went overboard imo with the most overrated player in baseball line, Tex is a little overrated on here.

[Sports Guy]

Uy guvalt.

We are no worthy, SG! You are always 100% correct! Even with a completely opinionated thing such as 'overratedness', I am wrong, you are right!

LOL, this is funny coming from you.

Is this the only post you can respond to? Care to show the numbers that show him to be overrated? Seeing as the h/r splits have been shown to prove you wrong there, what other stats would you like to show? Are you only going to focus on his rookie year road stats and his first half of this year? Cause, as a stat guy, i would think you would know that is too much of a small sample size.

So please, show us what stats you have that show him to be overrated.

[Sports Guy]

Ahhh, a reality check for all the people on here who thought Tex might come somewhat cheaply. Of course I haven't seen any of them admit their folly.

I would think his value is down slightly from last year but it is getting better by the day it seems.

And while Bryan went overboard imo with the most overrated player in baseball line, Tex is a little overrated on here

Don't see how anyone is overrating him.

[8ripken2131]

Wow, very mature.

RC/27= Not park adjusted. Not all-inclusive. Not adjusted for position. You're not counting his huge, unexplained fall-off this year. You're not considering that his OBP, which is considered by some to be 3X more important than SLG, is not that great.

I think the infatuation with a 1Bmen who's only OPSing .870 in Texas this year is nuts. True, it's an off year, yes, he is great, is young, would do quite well here--but people make him out to be a 1B guy with a David Ortiz bat, 1000+ OPS, far better than all the other 1B options. A 30 VORP isn't too great. It's worse than Brian Roberts and like 60 or so other people.

Very good? Yes. Very overrated? IMO, yes.

Fight? I'm not picking a fight. I'm expressing my opinions.

I think the main thing to consider here is his age. Tex is only 26, and most players peak between 27 and 32 - so his best years should be AHEAD of him. He sports an .870-and-CLIMBING OPS in an OFF-YEAR, and posted OPSs of .929 and .954 in the 2 previous years at the ages of 24 and 25!!!!

Once again, looking at just the numbers is not the correct way to evaluate a player, and Teixeira is no exception. Just using a little common sense, you'll see that he'll likely end up with around 30 homers and another OPS over .900 at season's end, and he'll have accomplished all this before his 27th birthday- so he's going to get EVEN BETTER.

Calling any player who has put up these kind of numbers at this age overrated really doesn't make any sense.

[bryanman8]

LOL, this is funny coming from you.

Is this the only post you can respond to? Care to show the numbers that show him to be overrated? Seeing as the h/r splits have been shown to prove you wrong there, what other stats would you like to show? Are you only going to focus on his rookie year road stats and his first half of this year? Cause, as a stat guy, i would think you would know that is too much of a small sample size.

So please, show us what stats you have that show him to be overrated.

Career away OPS: .830 (clearly, you know even this year is too small of a sample size to say he's a bad away hitter, so perhaps his ENTIRE CAREER may be big enough)

VORP this year: 30, ranks in the 60s in baseball.

Career OBP: .365

SLG% this year in Texas: .495

'Shown to prove me wrong'? Give me a break! No one knows what on Earth they're talking about with h/r splits. Not me, not you...you certainly didn't prove me wrong by citing Soriano, who you hated in the first place, as one example of a guy who made you outguess them.

He's had a wild and wacky career. This year, I believe he's been overrated because I believe most don't know he's been worse than like 60-some hitters in baseball. It's my contention that he's not a great hitter for a 1Bmen and will forever be around the 10th best 1Bmen in the game, give or take a few. It's your contention that I'm wrong and will rebound to have an even more remarkable career. What do you think his career OPS will be? Average VORP?

Bottom line, it's all predictions. I'm quite sure most people thought Tex was a better hitter than 60-70th this year. There are many things that make me wary of him, despite that I'd love to have him, and until someone actually names a baseball player more overrated by people with understanding of stats (so like Darin Erstad by Joe Morgan or something wouldn't count), I see no reason to not call him the most overrated player. Name someone else (and Derek Jeter is just not one, as much as it tears me up).

[mweb]

I would think his value is down slightly from last year but it is getting better by the day it seems.

Don't see how anyone is overrating him.

I think people on here overrate him because they act like he is the savior for the O's and a bonafide superstar. He's very good and has great potential, but he's not that great yet. He had a 5.3 WARP3 in 2004, nothing to write home about there. Last year he had an impressive 9.6, but was helped out by playing half his games in the Coors of the AL, and this year he has a 7, which is good, but not great. Now he is hitting much better on the road this year, which is a good sign, but what's going on at home? There's no excuse for his OPS to be so low in that park.

I really like the guy, would love to have him as an Oriole, but I think he does get overhyped on here. I'm sure much of that is because he went to school with me at Mount Saint Joe's. But seriously the hometown hero thing is why he is overrated on here imo. If he grew up in SoCal, people wouldn't be quite as high on him.

[mweb]

I'll say Todd Helton is more overrated by most.