Adam Jones is amongst the worst defensive outfielders this year

[CA-ORIOLE]

But here is what I don't get. His OOZ rating is 44 - middle of the ground. One would assume that is his RZR is second worst in the league that he would be near the bottom in OOZ as well.

RZR doesn't take into account things like speed/trajectory. The advance systems will also break down the zone into smaller zones/subzones so plays in the outer edge of the zone are assigned more weight/value. RZR/OOZ will not account for that as it is one larger zone. Basically, the advanced systems assign more complex variables (truer value) to the play than RZR does, thereby making it more accurate.

No one has ever been able to explain to me what exactly an outfielder's ZONE is. Moreover, all of these numbers are based on "what an average fielder should be able to get to" who determines that?

It's more complex than this, but so as not to be too confusing, it basically works like this:

In Jones' case: The advanced sytems classify by location and complexity (speed/trajectory/zone/location etc.) all hit balls to CF and compares them to how well all centerfielders played that particular classification of play. Lets say an average guy made 10 out of 20 (50%) of a particular play/classification. In Jones's case, lets say he made only 8 out of 20 of the same play/classification. Jones made 2 less plays than average on that particular play. 2 plays equal apprixomatley .45 runs. So, Jones is approximately 0.9 runs below avearage on that particular type of play.

More complicated than that, but that gives you the basic methodolgy.

[CA-ORIOLE]

My biggest complaint about defensive metrics (specifically and especially UZR) is that I can't watch or walk through a game, see the plays, and understand how a player's performance in that game increased or decreased his metric. It makes it very hard to tell just what is being evaluated.

Edit: I can sort of do this for the +/- system, which leads me to prefer that. But there are still plenty of other reservations.

UZR and plus-minus encompass the same basic methodology.

[Roll Tide]

Jones should be playing LF for somebody. He'd have more value as a LF IMO. He wouldn't have to cover the gaps (the balls hit over his head.)

[CA-ORIOLE]

Jones should be playing LF for somebody. He'd have more value as a LF IMO. He wouldn't have to cover the gaps (the balls hit over his head.)

Or right field with his arm. It seams to me that Nick's arm (subjectively here) isn't what it used to be. Maybe Jones in RF and Nick in LF would work.

[ccbird]

I'm convinced Jones isn't comfortable coming in on line drives and hard hit balls and it's why he plays so shallow. He's misplayed numerous balls this year thate he was charging in on. The result is more balls getting over his head that numerous CFers would catch.

[CA-ORIOLE]

My biggest complaint about defensive metrics (specifically and especially UZR) is that I can't watch or walk through a game, see the plays, and understand how a player's performance in that game increased or decreased his metric. It makes it very hard to tell just what is being evaluated.

Edit: I can sort of do this for the +/- system, which leads me to prefer that. But there are still plenty of other reservations.

I tried to answer your PM, but I'm not sure if I did it right.

[SilentJames]

RZR doesn't take into account things like speed/trajectory. The advance systems will also break down the zone into smaller zones/subzones so plays in the outer edge of the zone are assigned more weight/value. RZR/OOZ will not account for that as it is one larger zone. Basically, the advanced systems assign more complex variables (truer value) to the play than RZR does, thereby making it more accurate.

It's more complex than this, but so as not to be too confusing, it basically works like this:

In Jones' case: The advanced sytems classify by location and complexity (speed/trajectory/zone/location etc.) all hit balls to CF and compares them to how well all centerfielders played that particular classification of play. Lets say an average guy made 10 out of 20 (50%) of a particular play/classification. In Jones's case, lets say he made only 8 out of 20 of the same play/classification. Jones made 2 less plays than average on that particular play. 2 plays equal apprixomatley .45 runs. So, Jones is approximately 0.9 runs below avearage on that particular type of play.

More complicated than that, but that gives you the basic methodolgy.

Okay thats helpful but who is doing this? and who determines what an average player can do? It just seems awfully subjective to me.

[JohnD]

You see, it TRIES to be objective, but really can't because not all balls hit to the outfield are the same. Measuring offense through various new and more complex stats is fine, but defensive stats are hogwash. When it says guy you KNOW are good outfielders aren't, and guys you KNOW aren't good at defense are even middle of the pack, it's nonsense. There is simply too much about defense that you can't quantify like that. It just can't work. And, once again, it doesn't.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Okay thats helpful but who is doing this?

The companies that promulgate UZR and Plus-Minus.

and who determines what an average player can do?

Average is determined as I explained previously.

Example:

1. Medium Line drive (speed/trajectory), in zone 40 (location), segment 4 (depth). (Note; these are just examples)

The average Centerfielder makes that catch 10 ot of 20 times.

Jones makes that catch 8 out of 20 times.

Jones is 2 plays below average.

The zone/segment can be determined pretty accurately by film/technology. Speed/trajectory classifications get a little more fuzzy/anecdotal. Something that field fx will probably enhance. That being said, it's a pretty objective systems approach and far more precise than RZR would be.

[CA-ORIOLE]

You see, it TRIES to be objective, but really can't because not all balls hit to the outfield are the same. Measuring offense through various new and more complex stats is fine, but defensive stats are hogwash. When it says guy you KNOW are good outfielders aren't, and guys you KNOW aren't good at defense are even middle of the pack, it's nonsense. There is simply too much about defense that you can't quantify like that. It just can't work. And, once again, it doesn't.

Some of the inputs are anecdotal at this point. That doesn't mean they don't have quality control processes. There are other flaws as well (field adjustments/speed of the runner etc.). That being said, over a large sample size, it becomes more and more stable. Three years worth of UZR is worth roughly one year of offensive statistics. The best approach is to average at least 3-4 years of defensive data for truer value. Even then, it's comparative in nature. If the quality of the position improves, the fielder may decline relative to the pool.

That beings said, a player that is consitently below average is probably below average. A player that is consitently above average is probably above average. From there you can assess scale and trends.

Field FX will provide an opportunity to make the anecdotal inputs very precise. You'll be able to assign a quantity/value to a hit ball and assign value within all elements of the spatial relationship. For me, it's fairly easy to see the mathematics in being able to do that.

FYI, I don't view some subjectiveness as a bad thing. Most errors are errors to a pretty high degree. Errors and other defensive misplays not accounted for in the system can be used to enhance it and/or provide more depth.

[SilentJames]

The companies that promulgate UZR and Plus-Minus.

Average is determined as I explained previously.

Example:

1. Medium Line drive (speed/trajectory), in zone 40 (location), segment 4 (depth). (Note; these are just examples)

The average Centerfielder makes that catch 10 ot of 20 times.

Jones makes that catch 8 out of 20 times.

Jones is 2 plays below average.

The zone/segment can be determined pretty accurately by film/technology. Speed/trajectory classifications get a little more fuzzy/anecdotal. Something that field fx will probably enhance. That being said, it's a pretty objective systems approach and far more precise than RZR would be.

Does it account for wind? spin of the ball? Bad bounces? Sun? Rain? Positioning? I mean, there is a big thing. If Jones is positioned for a pull hitter but he saw one off into the opposite gap does that count against him?

Too many variables. They are alright, but any stat that puts Jones near the bottom when virtually every baseball outlet agrees that his defense has been more than adequate this year has something wrong with it.

There is no way Adam regressed from last year. not a chance.

[Purple Oriole]

shut the heck up!

[CA-ORIOLE]

Does it account for wind? spin of the ball? Bad bounces? Sun? Rain? Positioning? I mean, there is a big thing. If Jones is positioned for a pull hitter but he saw one off into the opposite gap does that count against him?

Too many variables. They are alright, but any stat that puts Jones near the bottom when virtually every baseball outlet agrees that his defense has been more than adequate this year has something wrong with it.

There is no way Adam regressed from last year. not a chance.

Does it account for wind? spin of the ball? Bad bounces? Sun? Rain?

Probably not. It's pretty dynamic and I don't keep up with it on a regular basis. I'd guess no. That being said, these are probably minor/small scale relative to the total number of plays and you'd have to assume some sort of equal distribution imo.

Positioning? I mean, there is a big thing.

Definitely a big thing. They consider postioning as neutral. Each player starting at a set position. Assumption being, if players are positioned properly then they are rewarded.

... any stat that puts Jones near the bottom when virtually every baseball outlet agrees that his defense has been more than adequate this year has something wrong with it. There is no way Adam regressed from last year. not a chance

Subjectively, I don't see him being nearly as good as most of the other centerfielders in the league, so I agree with the stats. I did not look at them in quite a while. I do think hs range rate this year will improve. I consider most of the player/baseball analysts to be fairly dumb actually. I did mention in a previous post that Shelby has had issues with his postioning/defense.

[Hallas]

Jones seems to have trouble with OPACY for some reason. His away UZR is consistently above average, and his home UZR is consistently below average by a lot more.

This could point to a problem with the park effect calculations, or it could just point to a home field quirk that is unfavorable to Jones' skillset.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Jones seems to have trouble with OPACY for some reason. His away UZR is consistently above average, and his home UZR is consistently below average by a lot more.

This could point to a problem with the park effect calculations, or it could just point to a home field quirk that is unfavorable to Jones' skillset.

You could be on to something there. I know that's been the case with Nick in the past, but his is more obvious with the short right field wall. I'm not sure why there would be a similar effect in CF though?