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Adam Jones is amongst the worst defensive outfielders this year


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Who is claiming he is a GG centerfielder?

We are saying to call him the worst defender in basball is preposterous. And it is.

I think the fact these stats say this is eye opening. I hate to bring Jeter up all the time but I will be honest. I was floored when four or five years ago people started pointing out Jeter was rather bad in the field. Not just bad but one of the worst.

After that I really go out of my way to watch what is going on at SS when we play the Yankees. And he is truly not good on defense. I would think most Yankee fans still are offended by this concept.

But Jeter dives head first into the stands to get a ball and cuts his head open. He makes great jump throws in the hole. Jones can sometimes jump and take away a homerun or make a basket catch for the ages. But that doesnt make them good on defense.

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There are some cases of guys getting better at defense in pro ball. But it doesnt seem anywhere near the majority of guys get better after they get here.

Just with my eyes I dont think Jones goes back on balls that well and honestly doesnt come in on balls that well.

He is extremely athletic. It just doesnt seem to be enough.

Seconded.

Jones appears to be quite good at ranging from left to right (hence the solid out-of-zone ratings). But he has always struggled with straight-on balls, either over head, or shallow in front.

A couple things may account for that. First, it is without question the hardest ball to read and hardest ball for OFs in general. And let's not forget that Jones is a converted infielder. He only started playing the OF as a 20-year old in AAA. It's quite possible he will never have the instincts for CF, having never honed them growing up. Instead he can get by using his athletic abilities to run down balls in the gaps.

Positioning can help mask his struggles (i.e. playing back to limit balls over his head), but those struggles might always be there.

I'm so waiting for Field f/x to settle arguments like these...

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I think the fact these stats say this is eye opening. I hate to bring Jeter up all the time but I will be honest. I was floored when four or five years ago people started pointing out Jeter was rather bad in the field. Not just bad but one of the worst.

After that I really go out of my way to watch what is going on at SS when we play the Yankees. And he is truly not good on defense. I would think most Yankee fans still are offended by this concept.

But Jeter dives head first into the stands to get a ball and cuts his head open. He makes great jump throws in the hole. Jones can sometimes jump and take away a homerun or make a basket catch for the ages. But that doesnt make them good on defense.

Derek Jeter has been way past his prime while you have been paying attention, and his defense especially at SS is going to be declining rapidly in later years. Nothing out of the ordinary about that. His defense should suck at that point of his career.

Jones is 11 years younger, so the comparison is not really relevant as far as the age factor and he plays a completely different position.

I am as much of a "stat" guy as the next one, but only with things that are based on FACTS. These "stats" are based on the opinion of whoever tracking them, and I will NEVER rely on that to make a judgement on a player especially when I see otherwise. It is impossible to track OF defensive numbers accurately for a myriad of reasons. The human eye and judgement is not that good watching it from afar, and never will be.

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I am as much of a "stat" guy as the next one, but only with things that are based on FACTS. These "stats" are based on the opinion of whoever tracking them, and I will NEVER rely on that to make a judgement on a player especially when I see otherwise. It is impossible to track OF defensive numbers accurately for a myriad of reasons. The human eye and judgement is not that good watching it from afar, and never will be.

It will be interesting to see how accurate these numbers are when the field FX stuff gets going.

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I am not going to say that AJ is among the best outfielders, but among the worst? I mean if he was truly among the worst wouldn't there be like at least 30 threads on here calling for his head? To be among the worst shouldn't someone be at least noticeably bad?

Someone can be quietly below average, someone can be quietly above average. But when you get to extremes like that you would think that more people would be noticing and commenting on it.

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I am not going to say that AJ is among the best outfielders, but among the worst? I mean if he was truly among the worst wouldn't there be like at least 30 threads on here calling for his head? To be among the worst shouldn't someone be at least noticeably bad? Someone can be quietly below average, someone can be quietly above average. But when you get to extremes like that you would think that more people would be noticing and commenting on it.

This is not an objective fan site...none of them are.

How many Yankee fans admit Jeter is a below average defensive player?

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I am not going to say that AJ is among the best outfielders, but among the worst? I mean if he was truly among the worst wouldn't there be like at least 30 threads on here calling for his head? To be among the worst shouldn't someone be at least noticeably bad?

Someone can be quietly below average, someone can be quietly above average. But when you get to extremes like that you would think that more people would be noticing and commenting on it.

Brett Gardner is an "elite player" when looking at his WAR. And people were questioning WAR because of that.

It is shocking to hear that he is considered one of the worst CF when using this stat, but his flaws have been well known for 3 years now.

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AJ is good at catching the ball. If he is in range he can jump, dive or do whatever the acrobatics necessary to make the catch, hence Web Gems, HR robberies, GG's and the impression some fans have that he is an above average OF. In fact Luke Scott is probably a more effective OF. Jones seems to have trouble judging the ball off the bat and frequently his first step is late or in the wrong direction. So many times he can't get to balls, other less spectacular OF's, can. He has good speed which can make up for some of this and one of the best arms in the game to compensate as well. But the various metrecs all agree that this is not enough to keep him from being the -RS CF that he is.

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I am not going to say that AJ is among the best outfielders, but among the worst? I mean if he was truly among the worst wouldn't there be like at least 30 threads on here calling for his head? To be among the worst shouldn't someone be at least noticeably bad?

Someone can be quietly below average, someone can be quietly above average. But when you get to extremes like that you would think that more people would be noticing and commenting on it.

Bill James once said something to the effect of "a good statistic confirms 85% of what we thought, and challenges 15%". For example, everyone could have told you, without the benifit of WAR, that Albert Pujols was really good in 2009. I doubt many people would have been able to tell you that Ben Zobrist was just as goood (that year) though.

Adam Jones appears to be one of those fielders that looks a lot better than he is. This is not an impossible or even unlikely concept.

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We are saying to call him the worst defender in basball is preposterous. And it is.

Having a poor UZR isn't saying he's the worst defender in baseball. It's saying that he has turned fewer balls into outs than expected of an average major league center fielder. Over time you might conclude that he's a poor defensive center fielder.

But in the short term all you know is that by several different metrics a lot of balls fall in the Orioles outfield that don't in other outfields. That could be because Jones is a poor fielder. Or because there are some unusual park effects in OPACY. Or because Oriole pitchers give up an unusual mix of flyballs or line drives or popups. Or because the stringers who record the data in Baltimore have some type of bias. Over a large enough period of time most of those things wash out, but not all.

We are never able to definitively say who is better than who. But we can get closer and closer with more data. And the data has been pretty damning about Jones' defense for a number of years. You're left with either quite persistant measurement errors, or that he's just not all that good. Or both.

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Bill James once said something to the effect of "a good statistic confirms 85% of what we thought, and challenges 15%". For example, everyone could have told you, without the benifit of WAR, that Albert Pujols was really good in 2009. I doubt many people would have been able to tell you that Ben Zobrist was just as goood (that year) though.

Adam Jones appears to be one of those fielders that looks a lot better than he is. This is not an impossible or even unlikely concept.

James also said a statistic that is consistently surprising is probably wrong. I think UZR and +/- and TZ are sometimes surprising, but usually confirm our beliefs. Which is fine. Most people with pretty swings are fairly good hitters. Just not all.

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I am not going to say that AJ is among the best outfielders, but among the worst? I mean if he was truly among the worst wouldn't there be like at least 30 threads on here calling for his head? To be among the worst shouldn't someone be at least noticeably bad?

Someone can be quietly below average, someone can be quietly above average. But when you get to extremes like that you would think that more people would be noticing and commenting on it.

Jones' UZR is compared to all centerfielders not all outfielders. Centerfielders have the most skill. He's obviously better than most corner outfielders, but it shouldn't be shocking he's below average as compared to CF. You're also getting too wrapped up over a half years worth of data. Look at 3 years.

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But in the short term all you know is that by several different metrics a lot of balls fall in the Orioles outfield that don't in other outfields. That could be because Jones is a poor fielder. Or because there are some unusual park effects in OPACY. Or because Oriole pitchers give up an unusual mix of flyballs or line drives or popups. Or because the stringers who record the data in Baltimore have some type of bias. Over a large enough period of time most of those things wash out, but not all.

.

Exactly my point.

It isn't as black and white as it might seem. Far from it.

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Dude, how many threads were there calling for Jones' head last year? Really?

But the point remains. Jones is not perceived by anyone to be anything worse than average and by most to be above average.

No one is saying that Jones doesn't have issues or he is elite or anything - but worst? I mean really? And its not just worst - but worst by a fairly wide margin. When stats and general perception are THAT far off it makes you wonder.

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