Sabermatrician Ignoring Stats, Going With Hope

[BaltimoreTerp]

Let's just say Dave Cameron has a damn good reason.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/when-probability-is-not-helpful/

Here on FanGraphs, we talk a lot about probability and likely outcomes. When making a decision, we think it’s generally wise to understand historical precedent, and to learn from history rather than repeat it.

But, there are times in life that you’re not making a decision, and knowledge of the probability of outcomes just doesn’t help at all. You are just rooting for one specific result, even if you don’t have any control over whether it occurs or not.

I’m now in one of those situations. Last week, I was informed that I have Acute Myeloid Leukemia, a particularly nasty member of the cancer family. History has given my doctors all kinds of data about cure rates and life expectancy, and statistical analysis is helping them decide just what kind of chemotherapy I’ll be taking in a few hours, which I’m really thankful for.

But really, those numbers do nothing for me. I’m not going to be making very many decisions over the next few months. I’m just going to be rooting like crazy for the drugs to work. I need reasons for hope, and I won’t find much of that in the harshness of raw data.

[Austin]

Man, that's terrible. Best of luck to him.

[Skeletor]

That's a shame. I'll be pulling for him.

[scOtt]

I don't know this guy, but my prayers are with him. I lost a good friend to Leukemia. It's vicious stuff.

[Remember The Alomar]

That's absolutely terrible. I hope for the best.

[TGO]

This is an awful form of cancer. In a freaky coincidence, I just the other day watched the movie Funny People, in which Adam Sandler's character learns he has AML.

I have never met Dave but I've read enough of his stuff that I feel like I do. I will be thinking of him.