What is going on in LF in the American League

[Frobby]

Today I was starting to analyze the claim that Adam Jones would be better suited for LF than for CF, when I came across this: the median OPS in LF in the American League is .689 this year.

.689? Are you kidding me? In LF, where the weakest defensive OF traditionally plays?

Well, yes.

RF: .769

CF: .726

LF: .689

I don't get it, at all.

Of course, the Orioles are producing a .604 OPS in LF, so maybe I should get it.

[hoosiers]

I wonder if 1/4 or 1/3 of the CF-LF difference is due to the Orioles alone - Jones in CF and mediocrity in LF. Funny.

[RVAbird]

Frobby, where did you get this median measurement? What is the qualifying number of plate appearances for inclusion? How many data are there?

Among qualifying starting LFers on Fangraphs (both AL and NL), of which 17 names are included, I'm seeing a mean OPS of .785 and a mean wOBA of .343 (down about 10 points from 2010 qualifiers). It's sometimes tough to distinguish "pure" LFers from corner outfielders in general, and LF is a position that tends to see a revolving door of roster names.

[RVAbird]

According to Fangraphs, though, the mean OPS for qualified CFers (among 21 of them) is ~.776 and the mean wOBA for that group is ~.344.

So, even looking at it more conservatively as mean production from NL and AL qualifiers, there is clearly a closing gap in offensive production between the two positions.

I think you can say, at least, that there isn't much difference between the offensive contributions of the average CFer and that of the average LFer. Whether that trend continues remains to be seen, but if Adam Jones can go from a below average defensive center fielder to an average defensive left fielder, it might be to the team's benefit.

[DrungoHazewood]

Without looking into this in any detail, I'd assume it's a short term blip. I'm sure you can find years with similar oddities, like second basemen outperforming third basemen, or shortstops out hitting second basemen, and the like.

But in terms of real, long term changes in the defensive spectrum the last one I'm aware of is the swap of 2B and 3B about 1930.

[RVAbird]

Without looking into this in any detail, I'd assume it's a short term blip. I'm sure you can find years with similar oddities, like second basemen outperforming third basemen, or shortstops out hitting second basemen, and the like.

But in terms of real, long term changes in the defensive spectrum the last one I'm aware of is the swap of 2B and 3B about 1930.

Right. When we talk about starting left fielders in the AL, we are talking about 14 players (should they all qualify). It's pretty easy to see some random fluctuations among 14 players for 2/3 of a season.

[Frobby]

Frobby, where did you get this median measurement? What is the qualifying number of plate appearances for inclusion? How many data are there?

I am looking at ESPN's team batting, by position. Here's a link for LF: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/83/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true It includes all plate appearances for anyone while playing LF. By the way, I shouldn't have said "median," I should have said "mean." But the team median is very close to .689 anyway.

[Gurgi]

Would PED withdraw hit slower power positions first? Like LF, DH, and Firstbase. Maybe we should see if DH and First show similar surprising numbers.

[DrungoHazewood]

Would PED withdraw hit slower power positions first? Like LF, DH, and Firstbase. Maybe we should see if DH and First show similar surprising numbers.

Would be awfully strange if you could tie decreased hitting just among AL LFers in 2011 to PED withdrawl after the current testing regimen was instituted 5-6 years ago.

[Gurgi]

Would be awfully strange if you could tie decreased hitting just among AL LFers in 2011 to PED withdrawl after the current testing regimen was instituted 5-6 years ago.

Took a while for the Manny types to get out of the system. I have read that even after people stop roiding that there is a slight boost on the numbers anyway. That when their stats drop they usually dont fall all the way back to pre roid levels.

And didnt Manny just get caught a year and a half ago?

[RVAbird]

I am looking at ESPN's team batting, by position. Here's a link for LF: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/83/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true It includes all plate appearances for anyone while playing LF. By the way, I shouldn't have said "median," I should have said "mean." But the team median is very close to .689 anyway.

Oh I see. Yeah, we were looking at very different data.

[DrungoHazewood]

Took a while for the Manny types to get out of the system. I have read that even after people stop roiding that there is a slight boost on the numbers anyway. That when their stats drop they usually dont fall all the way back to pre roid levels.

And didnt Manny just get caught a year and a half ago?

If you're really, really focused on looking for evidence of a massive impact of PEDs in all aspects of baseball I'm sure a lot of things begin to look like that evidence.

[Hallas]

According to Fangraphs, though, the mean OPS for qualified CFers (among 21 of them) is ~.776 and the mean wOBA for that group is ~.344.

So, even looking at it more conservatively as mean production from NL and AL qualifiers, there is clearly a closing gap in offensive production between the two positions.

I think you can say, at least, that there isn't much difference between the offensive contributions of the average CFer and that of the average LFer. Whether that trend continues remains to be seen, but if Adam Jones can go from a below average defensive center fielder to an average defensive left fielder, it might be to the team's benefit.

You could also draw the conclusion that LF is becoming more skilled defensively and Jones would go from a way below-average CFer to a merely below-average LFer. Thus the position change wouldn't really offset the increased production requirements for his new position.

[TGO]

You could also draw the conclusion that LF is becoming more skilled defensively and Jones would go from a way below-average CFer to a merely below-average LFer. Thus the position change wouldn't really offset the increased production requirements for his new position.

There certainly seem to be a bunch of AL teams playing no-hit LFers in what I assume is either an attempt to boost their defenses or a cost-saving measure (because they decided to pay more for players at other positions). Corey Patterson, Carlos Peguero, Juan Pierre, Sam Fuld. And it doesn't help that a few of the LFers who are supposed to hit are not doing so--Carl Crawford and Delmon Young come to mind.