Rule 5 Draft

[furryburres]

I'd like that Fernando Hernandez guy. Looks like a good reliever for the O's.

[phattybeers]

As I stated to open this thread...Baseball America Delivers

Here is the link from Chris Kline

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/265252.html

Buckle your seatbelts. This year's Rule 5 draft will likely be more exciting than 2006, thanks to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Included in the new CBA, which went into effect last October, was an alteration to the Rule 5, giving teams an extra year of protection to further aid the development process. Instead of clubs having three years (for players signed at age 19 or older) or four years (for players 18 and younger) to wait before adding players to the major league 40-man roster, they now have four and five years.

High school players drafted in 2003 and college players drafted in 2004 become eligible for the Rule 5 for the first time this year. International signees and all others signed before age 19 in the year 2003 also require protection.

While there likely won't be the Josh Hamilton bomb the Reds dropped on the Rule 5 world last season, more clubs will be active among a much deeper pool of players available—more than 800 names are up for grabs in the major league phase of the draft.

"Even with the new CBA last year there were a few nifty picks," said one front-office executive. "The Royals grabbing Joakim Soria, Reds nabbing Hamilton and Jared Burton . . . The Nationals taking Jesus Flores was creative. San Diego taking Kevin Cameron from the Twins and seeing him pitch late in the game in certain situations at Petco Park . . . The percentage of players sticking in the majors is not very good and the percentage shrinks on teams that are actually in contention. The draft still serves as a good barometer to make clubs correctly assess what they have in their own system and perhaps find another piece.

"Looking back on 2006, teams felt a little more secure in protecting their own because they had another full year to assess what they had in their own system."

Machinations Of The Draft

The Rule 5 draft is split into two segments: In the major league phase, clubs draft eligible players off Triple-A reserve lists. Players selected in the major league phase of the draft cost $50,000 each and must remain on the selecting team's big league roster for all of the 2008 season or be offered back to the player's original team for $25,000.

The minor league phase is split into two sections—the Triple-A phase and the Double-A phase. In the Triple-A phase, clubs draft players off Double-A reserve lists for $12,000 apiece; in the Double-A phase, clubs draft players off Class A reserve lists for $4,000 each. In neither case do players drafted have to be returned to their original team.

Roughly 400 players are eligible to be drafted in the minor league phase, and clubs had targeted several players. And just like the major league portion, expect teams to focus on trying to beef up their systems on the mound and behind the plate.

"It's a cheap and easy way to improve the depth of your farm system," a scout from an American League club said. "It's rare to get a position player (in the minor league phase) who becomes an impact player, but you'll see clubs trying to buy arms in bulk and hoping to find more depth at catcher."

While it is rare to strike gold in the minor league phase, the most recent success story is Giants infielder Eugenio Velez, who was selected from the Blue Jays in 2005 and has a chance to stick with the big league club in 2008.

Position players on the minor league side that were garnering interest early this season were catchers Korey Feiner (Twins), Morgan Clendenin (Orioles), Mario Mercedes (Cubs), and utilityman Jesus Soto (Royals).

But let's focus on the major league phase for now. Here are some players to keep an eye on, in order of their Rule 5 helium:

Randor Bierd, rhp, Tigers

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2003, Bierd was mediocre for his first two seasons in the States and then needed Tommy John surgery midway through 2005. After pitching at short-season Oneonta in 2006, Bierd took a major step this past season, jumping to Double-A Erie where he finished 3-2, 3.35 with 52 strikeouts in 45 innings. While Bierd has a swing-and-miss 90-93 mph sinking fastball, his solid-average slider also gets a lot of ground balls. And he has the makings of a third pitch with an average changeup.

Brian Barton, of, Indians

Ever the enigma, Barton went undrafted in 2004 after clubs were scared off by his aerospace engineering major at Miami. The Indians signed him for $100,000 and an additional $100,000 in college funds after a brief showing in the Cape Cod League and Barton has not looked back. A five-tool player who can play all three outfield spots, Barton has been hampered by a lingering knee injury since his breakout year in 2006 when he hit .322 with 19 homers and swiped 41 bags in 49 attempts. Even with the knee problem, Barton still turned in a .305/.402/.420 season in 2007, finishing the year in Triple-A. Quiet and leading through example through his 2006 season, some scouts expressed concerns about Barton's demeanor. "I loved him that first year in Double-A," one scout from a National League club said. "But this past year, it was almost like he'd earned this elite status and you saw him have this lackadaisical approach to the game that wasn't there before. Where he was playing with chips on both shoulders with something to prove initially, that part of his game was replaced by some sort of false bravado. He's really tough to get a handle on, but the tools are very real."

Garrett Guzman, of, Twins

Guzman missed the entire 2005 season after breaking his neck in a car accident just days before leaving for spring training that year. Now 25, the undersized lefthanded hitter profiles as arguably the best fourth outfielder candidate on the Rule 5 eligible list, drawing comparisons to Orlando Palmeiro. While Palmeiro was a bit better runner and defender, Guzman offers more power and offensive upside. Guzman, who batted .312/.359/.453 at Double-A New Britain in 2007, has solid gap power and the ability to play anywhere in the outfield, though he profiles best in left. "He probably doesn't run as well (as Palmeiro) but they're very similar players who can do a lot of things for you," said one National League scout.

Carlos Guevara, rhp, Reds

A 2003 seventh-round pick out of St. Mary's (Texas) University, Guevara repeated at Double-A Chattanooga despite an impressive season with 89 in 77 innings in 2006. Guevara was just as good if not better in 2007, averaging 12.63 K/9, and should be an easy Rule 5 decision for a club searching for middle relief. Guevara has one plus pitch, but it's the niche of that pitch being a screwball that helps spike his value, and explain why he's available, as some scouts dismiss him as a trick-pitch artist. The rest of Guevara's stuff is fringe-average, but he could be a solid addition for clubs in need of bullpen arms.

Samuel Deduno, rhp, Rockies

The Rockies signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2003, and he was the Rookie-level Pioneer League pitcher of the year two years later in his U.S. debut. Effectively wild, Deduno doesn't have overpowering stuff, but misses a lot of bats with average command of his 91-92 mph fastball and a 70 curveball, all on the 20-80 scouting scale. After leading the minors with 34 wild pitches in 2006, Deduno lowered that number to 13 this year. He can lose his release point very easily at times. Deduno was shut down in winter ball with elbow soreness, but several clubs were still expressing interest in the 24-year-old. He went 6-9, 5.53 with 8.6 K/9 in 2007.

The following players were receiving strong consideration for the Rule 5 draft in December:

Kyle Aselton, lhp, Twins

Overlooked in Twins system; arm strength with low 90s heat

Jesus Castillo, rhp, Dodgers

Fastball command to both sides; up to 94 mph in winter ball

Jamie D'Antona, 3b/c, Diamondbacks

Second straight year left unprotected, can play 1b, 3b or c

Jose de la Cruz, rhp, Mariners

Six-foot-6 righthander with power sinker and added a split

Diory Hernandez, ss, Braves

Plus runner with easy actions; uses the whole field

Fernando Hernandez, rhp, White Sox

Matt Guerrier-type righthander with plus moxie

Dusty Hughes, rhp, Royals

Strong Arizona Fall League effort boosts short guy's stock

Steven Jackson, rhp, Yankees

Strong, physical presence and has yet to reach his ceiling

Preston Larrison, rhp, Tigers

Very heavy lower half, but can be effective out of the pen

Shane Lindsay, rhp, Rockies

Health is a major issue, but showed power stuff in Hawaii

Yohan Pino, rhp, Twins

Great feel to pitch with a four fringe-average pitches

Tony Richie, c, Cubs

Solid catch-and-throw guy who hits a little bit

Kyle Schmidt, rhp, Orioles

Medical baggage, but bounced back with 145 whiffs in 131 IP

Leyson Septimo, lhp, Diamondbacks

Converted outfielder reportedly hit triple-digits this fall

Brett Smith, rhp, Yankees

Solid-average stuff, doesn't pitch with his fastball enough

Von Stertzbach, rhp, Angels

Profiles as a solid bullpen guy with above-average slider

Chris Stewart, c, Rangers

Solid defender with the big leagues already on his resume

Luis Valbuena, 2b, Mariners

Outstanding defender with interesting lefty bat

Marwin Vega, rhp, Mariners

Three average pitches with a lively 91-93 mph fastball

Matt Whitney, 1b, Indians

Blasting 32 homers might be enough to get Whitney noticed

[ijoshyounot]

Jose de la Cruz would be interesting to have

[JTrea81]

Fernando Hernandez should be an Oriole target. Hopefully he makes it to us.

[mikezpen]

They'll probably take some no-hit utility player who plays 9 positions. Can never have enough of those.

[CrazyTrain]

This guys is interesting as well. Plays 3rd, 1st, and maybe LF.

Jamie D'Antona

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jamie%20D%27Antona&pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=452202

I know the guy that coached him in the Cape Cod League. He said he has a ton of natural talent, but suffers from a lack of concentration in the field. He had the penchant for make spectacular defensive plays, but messes up on the easy ones at times. Also said he had a huge swing with some holes in it, but if that could be fixed he would be a really good big league hitter.

[Greg Pappas]

The one guy who interests me is Brian Barton of the Indians who is referenced in the article.

Me as well. BTW, it appears that my boy Lubanski will not be available as was eroneously reported.

Barton could be a very good ML'er and taking a look at him this spring would be a good cheap move that could pay huge dividends.

[OrioleLochRaven]

Barton sounds a lot like Jim Edmonds to me.

I'm interested.

[Ruzious]

Barton and Bierd sound like the 2 prizes. I'd also be interested in SS Diory Hernandez. He showed a lot of improvement last year in the SS loaded Braves organization.

[WebLink21]

Barton sounds like exactly the type of player that we should be looking for in the Rule 5 draft. We could plug him into the outfield and see how it works. Only 25 and will have plenty of opportunity here to prove himself. Has anyone heard of any names WE are interested in or is that something held tight to the vest. Are we still in line right now to have the 1st pick or has one of the teams in front of us dropped a player from their 40 to make room for a pick?

[bigbird]

Barton sounds like exactly the type of player that we should be looking for in the Rule 5 draft. We could plug him into the outfield and see how it works. Only 25 and will have plenty of opportunity here to prove himself. Has anyone heard of any names WE are interested in or is that something held tight to the vest. Are we still in line right now to have the 1st pick or has one of the teams in front of us dropped a player from their 40 to make room for a pick?

I don't think dropped players count after the Rule 5 deadline passes.

[byrdz]

I'm totally confused by this thread. I swear I was reading it an hour ago and it had more posts in it than this. Long day I guess.

Anyway, I saw somewhere in the mystery thread that we were way down the Rule 5 draft, somewhere in the teens. If this is true, there's no way we get Barton.

Edit: Ok, same exact discussion going on SG's CFer thread. Boy, talk about redundancy. Maybe there should be a Barton thread as well.

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[Crazysilver03]

http://riveraveblues.com/2007/11/23/a-look-at-the-rule-v-draft/

From a Yankees site but still good stuff.

Dan Smith, 24, LHP, Braves

Smith went undrafted out of Palm Springs (FL) High School in 2002, and he choose to sign with the Braves as an undrafted free agent instead of attending college. He backs his low-90’s heat with a great changeup, although he struggles to spin his breaking ball consistently. He comes over-the-top and uses a huge downhill plane, which makes him tough to hit (7.00 Hper9 career) and is the main reason he’s given up only 18 homers in 338 career innings.

Smith’s biggest pitfall is that his command comes and goes, as he’ll rack up big walk totals (4.36 BBper9) to go along with big strikeout totals (9.74 Kper9). He was lights out down the stretch during Triple-A Richmond’s run to the International League Championship, notching a pair of big strikeouts against Durham’s #2 and 3 hitters in the deciding game. Smith has had an impressive career, compiling a 25-19 record with a 2.96 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Even though he’s spent most of his career as a reliever, he’s also made 30 starts in the last two years, and should be able to go long if needed. No one took a chance on Smith in last year’s Rule V draft, but with a full season of Double-A and a half season of Triple-A now under his belt, the Braves won’t be that lucky this year.

Sean Thompson, 25, LHP, Rockies

Thompson appeared to be on the cusp of the big leagues after Spring Training, but he ended up pitching at two levels for three different organizations last year. He was with Double-A San Antonio until the Padres DFA’d in late June to make room for Milton Bradley. The Royals claimed him off waivers a week later and assigned him to Triple-A Omaha, where he managed to throw one whole inning before being DFA’d again a week later, this time to make room for Reggie Sanders coming off the 60-day DL. Five days later the Rockies scooped him up off waivers, and assigned him to Double-A Tulsa.

Thompson spent the rest of the year with Tulsa (he actually was DFA’d yet again to make room on the 40-man for top prospect Ian Stewart, but no one claimed him and he remained with the club), and managed to put together another solid season despite all the address changing. He gave up less than a hit per inning for the 5th time in his 6 pro seasons, and he again produced an above-average GB/FB ratio (1.41). Both his curveball and changeup are well-above-average pitches that ranked among the best in the Padres system at the start of the year. His fastball is fringy, sitting at 86-88, and the only thing that has held him back has been his inability to command it enough to consistently get ahead in the count.

Jesse Ingram, 25, RHP, Rangers

Ingram set Cal Berkeley’s single season saves record with 10 in 2004, but he wasn’t a true shutdown, knockout reliever; it was more along the lines of ”he’s the most experienced guy in the ‘pen, so he’s the closer.” Ingram missed most of 2005 with rotator cuff soreness, but he’s been nothing but healthy and dominant since coming back. In the two seasons since the injury, he’s thrown 140.1 IP between High-A Bakersfield and Double-A Frisco, and has given up only 96 hits and 55 walks against 187 strikeouts. Numbers like those probably make you think he’s a power arm with nasty stuff, but that isn’t the case.

Ingram relies on his impeccable command and control, working with a 90-92 mph fastball, a good slider and the occasional get-me-over changeup. He’s an equal opportunity pitcher, manhandling both lefty and righty batters. Ingram’s been a workhorse reliever despite the rotator cuff troubles, pitching back-to-back-to-back days on several occasions, and even working a 4-inning stint earlier in the year. Ingram will only go as far as his savvy and toughness will take him, but that should be good enough for a middle relief gig in The Show.

I wouldnt mind any one of those three.

[Crazysilver03]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=675#more-675

It seems as if the Rays will grab OF Barton with the first pick in the Rule V, to replace losing Pridie, Dukes, and Young in the last week.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=674

Hernandez, a 49th-round draft-and-follow out of Broward (Fla.) Community College in 2002, spent two stints in the Mexican League in 2005 before spending all of 2006 at high Class A Winston-Salem. The 23-year-old pitched at Double-A Birmingham this past season and boosted his profile significantly in the Arizona Fall League.

Often compared to Twins righthander Matt Guerrier for his command and control rather than pure stuff, Hernandez is also an innings-eater with an above-average curveball.

"This is a guy someone’s going to bite on," said one National League scouting director. "He’s all guts and showed the ability to shut people down with games on the line. He profiles as more of a middle reliever, but any manager you talk to who’s had him will tell you they’re not afraid to put him in there in the ninth inning.

"His fastball can be fringy, but he’s got a pretty good curveball with a lot of depth to it, and his changeup is probably his second-best pitch."

Hernandez went 0-0, 0.00 in 12 appearances for Phoenix during his AFL season. He struck out 11 in 12 innings, walking four.

I would love to grab this guy if he falls to us at #3.

Pittsburgh is disqualified from participating in the draft because their 40 man roster is full.

[Dr. FLK]

It doesn't sound like Barton will be there for us to take.

From Rotoworld:

With an even greater need for outfield depth after sending Elijah Dukes to the Nationals, the Rays are rumored to be taking Brian Barton with the first pick in Thursday's Rule 5 draft.

The Indians felt like they could leave Barton unprotected after September knee surgery, but it looks like he will be taken. The former University of Miami projects as a long-term reserve, though there could be a few teams out there that see him as a starter.