What do expect from Chris Davis?

[wildcard]

Chris Davis is going to get a chance over the next two months to play everyday at the major league level. That will be different for him. He has had at least 90 at bats in 4 months over his 3 1/2 years major league career. July and August of 2008. May and Sept of 2009. He hasn't had that opportunity in 2010 or this year.

The test will be if he can get his averages to increase with steady playing time. His history say he will hit around .250. His OBP will be around .300. He will strikeout somewhere between 32-34% of the time. That is 200 strikeouts in 600 at bats. The real thing to watch may be his slugging pct and his homers. When he is doing well his slugging pct is 500 or better. That gets him to a 800 OPS. When he is not good he is closer to a 450 Slug pct and a 750 OPS on average.

This is what I see in the numbers he has put up in the majors. What do you expect him to do the rest of the year?

[Phantom]

I'm not expecting that much, but he wouldn't be the first player labeled as "AAAA" that put it together later than expected (and he's only 25). The guy slugged .824 in 200 AAA ABs this season. I sure hope to see some flashes of that to go along with the insane strikeout rate.

[clapdiddy]

I would expect: .250/.275/.425 for the rest of the season. I just can't see a guy with his plate discipline issues being an effective Major League hitter.

[DrungoHazewood]

I would expect: .250/.275/.425 for the rest of the season. I just can't see a guy with his plate discipline issues being an effective Major League hitter.

People with plate discipline issues become effective major league hitters all the time. It's just much harder. And for someone with Davis' profile it's essentially impossible for him to become a truly good major league hitter, not with a 5:1 K:BB ratio and a walk in only 6.7% of his plate appearances.

I'd expect him to fall somewhere in this range:

                                                                                                                                           Rk             Player OPS+  ISO  SO BB  PA Year Age  Tm Lg   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS     Pos1       Floyd Rayford  131 .214  69 10 372 1985  27 BAL AL 105 359  55 110 21  1 18  48   0   0  2  1  10  3  1 .306 .324 .521 .845   *52/D2     Alfonso Soriano  129 .247 157 23 741 2002  26 NYY AL 156 696 128 209 51  2 39 102   1  14  1  7   8 41 13 .300 .332 .547 .880    *4/D3       Roberto Kelly  128 .237  46  8 270 1998  33 TEX AL  75 257  48  83  7  3 16  46   0   3  1  1   4  0  2 .323 .349 .560 .910  *897/D4    Andres Galarraga  127 .273  93 19 449 1994  33 COL NL 103 417  77 133 21  0 31  85   8   8  0  5  10  8  3 .319 .356 .592 .949      *35      Jeff Francoeur  126 .249  58 11 274 2005  21 ATL NL  70 257  41  77 20  1 14  45   3   4  0  2   4  3  2 .300 .336 .549 .884      *96          Tony Armas  125 .218 115 19 462 1981  27 OAK AL 109 440  51 115 24  3 22  76   6   2  0  1   6  5  1 .261 .294 .480 .774    *9/87          Rex Hudler  123 .245  54  9 317 1996  35 CAL AL  92 302  60  94 20  3 16  40   0   3  2  1   7 14  5 .311 .337 .556 .893 *48/D738        Raul Mondesi  123 .210  78 16 454 1994  23 LAD NL 112 434  63 133 27  8 16  56   5   2  0  2   9 11  8 .306 .333 .516 .849     *989      Rocco Baldelli  122 .231  70 14 387 2006  24 TBD AL  92 364  59 110 24  6 16  57   1   7  0  2   2 10  1 .302 .339 .533 .871      *810      Juan Gonzalez  122 .278  73 14 346 2003  33 TEX AL  82 327  49  96 17  1 24  70   1   4  0  1  10  1  1 .294 .329 .572 .901     *9D11         Tony Armas  121 .263 156 32 679 1984  30 BOS AL 157 639 107 171 29  5 43 123   9   1  0  7  13  1  3 .268 .300 .531 .831   *8D/912        Kevin Young  120 .234  89 16 362 1997  28 PIT NL  97 333  59 100 18  3 18  74   1   4  1  8   6 11  2 .300 .332 .535 .867  *357/913          John Buck  115 .208 111 16 437 2010  29 TOR AL 118 409  53 115 25  0 20  66   1   6  0  6   6  0  0 .281 .314 .489 .802    *2/D14       Wily Mo Pena  115 .268 108 22 364 2004  22 CIN NL 110 336  45  87 10  1 26  66   1   6  0  0   7  5  2 .259 .316 .527 .843    98/715     Steve Scarsone  115 .210  82 18 261 1995  29 SFG NL  80 233  33  62 10  3 11  29   0   6  3  1   2  3  2 .266 .333 .476 .810    *54316        Cory Snyder  115 .228 123 16 433 1986  23 CLE AL 103 416  58 113 21  1 24  69   0   0  1  0   8  2  3 .272 .299 .500 .799 *965/7D17    Corey Patterson  114 .213  77 15 347 2003  23 CHC NL  83 329  49  98 17  7 13  55   2   1  0  2   5 16  5 .298 .329 .511 .839      *818         Tony Armas  114 .249  90 18 410 1985  31 BOS AL 103 385  50 102 17  5 23  64   4   2  0  5  14  0  0 .265 .298 .514 .812  *8D7/919     Jesse Barfield  112 .258 110 22 420 1983  23 TOR AL 128 388  58  98 13  3 27  68   0   4  1  5   8  2  5 .253 .296 .510 .806  *9/D8720         Bo Jackson  108 .226 146 25 468 1988  25 KCR AL 124 439  63 108 16  4 25  68   6   1  1  2   6 27  6 .246 .287 .472 .758  *79/8D21       Wily Mo Pena  105 .238 116 20 335 2005  23 CIN NL  99 311  42  79 17  0 19  51   0   3  0  1   7  2  1 .254 .304 .492 .796    *98722       Miguel Olivo  103 .241 126 19 416 2009  30 KCR AL 114 390  51  97 15  5 23  65   0   5  1  1  10  5  2 .249 .292 .490 .781     *2D23     Jose Hernandez   99 .237  69 13 268 1995  25 CHC NL  93 245  37  60 11  4 13  40   3   0  8  2   8  1  0 .245 .281 .482 .762     64524    Alfonso Soriano   98 .205  80 16 326 2011  35 CHC NL  89 308  33  76 15  0 16  47   3   1  0  1  11  1  1 .247 .285 .451 .737    *7/D25      Marcus Thames   98 .257  72 13 284 2007  30 DET AL  86 269  37  65 15  0 18  54   1   1  0  1   6  2  1 .242 .278 .498 .776   73/9DRk             Player OPS+  ISO  SO BB  PA Year Age  Tm Lg   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS     Pos26         Juan Uribe   98 .223  55  8 283 2001  21 COL NL  72 273  32  82 15 11  8  53   1   2  0  0   6  3  0 .300 .325 .524 .849      *627      Matt Williams   98 .253  72 14 311 1989  23 SFG NL  84 292  31  59 18  1 18  50   1   2  1  2   5  1  2 .202 .242 .455 .697     *5628   Andres Galarraga   97 .231 146 32 604 1995  34 COL NL 143 554  89 155 29  3 31 106   6  13  0  5  14 12  2 .280 .331 .511 .842      *329         Bo Jackson   94 .201 106 23 308 1993  30 CHW AL  85 284  32  66  9  0 16  45   1   0  0  1   5  0  2 .232 .289 .433 .722     D7930         Bo Jackson   94 .220 158 30 434 1987  24 KCR AL 116 396  46  93 17  2 22  53   0   5  1  2   3 10  4 .235 .296 .455 .750  *78/9D31        Cory Snyder   89 .220 166 31 615 1987  24 CLE AL 157 577  74 136 24  2 33  82   4   1  0  6   3  5  1 .236 .273 .456 .729    *96732        Chris Truby   86 .217  56 10 279 2000  26 HOU NL  78 258  28  67 15  4 11  59   1   5  1  5   4  2  1 .260 .295 .477 .772      *533        Chris Davis   85 .205 150 24 419 2009  23 TEX AL 113 391  48  93 15  1 21  59   2   2  0  2   6  0  0 .238 .284 .442 .726   *35/D34         Tony Armas   85 .235 131 29 613 1983  29 BOS AL 145 574  77 125 23  2 36 107   0   2  0  8  31  0  1 .218 .254 .453 .707     *8D35      Melvin Nieves   83 .214  88 19 262 1995  23 SDP NL  98 234  32  48  6  1 14  38   0   5  1  3   9  2  3 .205 .276 .419 .695  *79/8336       Andre Dawson   82 .226  53  9 306 1994  39 BOS AL  75 292  34  70 18  0 16  48   3   4  0  1  15  2  2 .240 .271 .466 .737      *D37        Brant Brown   81 .217 114 22 371 1999  28 PIT NL 130 341  49  79 20  3 16  58   3   4  0  4   4  3  4 .232 .283 .449 .732   98/3D38        Rod Barajas   80 .204  63 13 389 2004  28 TEX AL 108 358  50  89 26  1 15  58   0   3  8  7   3  0  1 .249 .276 .453 .728    *2/339         Juan Uribe   73 .205  82 13 495 2006  26 CHW AL 132 463  53 109 28  2 21  71   1   3  9  7  10  1  1 .235 .257 .441 .698      *6

Who woulda thought that the '85 vintage of the Sugar Bear would have the highest OPS+ among players with a 4.5:1 or worse K:BB ratio since 1980?

[Nigel Tufnel]

What do you expect him to do the rest of the year?

Lee May, circa 1979.

[ShaneDawg85]

My absolute worst fear is he pulls a Josh Bell and doesn't walk at all.

[Dipper9]

I expect him to be the best solution at first than anyone else in our organization right now. That might not be saying much, or it may say a lot, time will tell.

[GoldGlove21]

I expect him to be the best solution at first than anyone else in our organization right now. That might not be saying much, or it may say a lot, time will tell.

I just want to be excited when one of our first baseman comes to the plate. I think he will do that and you never know how being blocked messes with your confidence.

[Frobby]

He's an extremely interesting case. Andy was right to trade Lee so that he could maximize Davis's at bats the rest of this season.

My "default position" is that Davis is what his career ML numbers say he is -- a .750ish guy with a poor OBP and a good ISO. But that career minor league line of .317/.374/.596 hints that he could be better than that if we can get his K rate under control. The O's have done a pretty good job with Reynolds in that regard, and if they can do the same with Davis, we may have something.

[TakebackOPACY]

People with plate discipline issues become effective major league hitters all the time. It's just much harder. And for someone with Davis' profile it's essentially impossible for him to become a truly good major league hitter, not with a 5:1 K:BB ratio and a walk in only 6.7% of his plate appearances.

I'd expect him to fall somewhere in this range:

                                                                                                                                           Rk             Player OPS+  ISO  SO BB  PA Year Age  Tm Lg   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS     Pos1       Floyd Rayford  131 .214  69 10 372 1985  27 BAL AL 105 359  55 110 21  1 18  48   0   0  2  1  10  3  1 .306 .324 .521 .845   *52/D2     Alfonso Soriano  129 .247 157 23 741 2002  26 NYY AL 156 696 128 209 51  2 39 102   1  14  1  7   8 41 13 .300 .332 .547 .880    *4/D3       Roberto Kelly  128 .237  46  8 270 1998  33 TEX AL  75 257  48  83  7  3 16  46   0   3  1  1   4  0  2 .323 .349 .560 .910  *897/D4    Andres Galarraga  127 .273  93 19 449 1994  33 COL NL 103 417  77 133 21  0 31  85   8   8  0  5  10  8  3 .319 .356 .592 .949      *35      Jeff Francoeur  126 .249  58 11 274 2005  21 ATL NL  70 257  41  77 20  1 14  45   3   4  0  2   4  3  2 .300 .336 .549 .884      *96          Tony Armas  125 .218 115 19 462 1981  27 OAK AL 109 440  51 115 24  3 22  76   6   2  0  1   6  5  1 .261 .294 .480 .774    *9/87          Rex Hudler  123 .245  54  9 317 1996  35 CAL AL  92 302  60  94 20  3 16  40   0   3  2  1   7 14  5 .311 .337 .556 .893 *48/D738        Raul Mondesi  123 .210  78 16 454 1994  23 LAD NL 112 434  63 133 27  8 16  56   5   2  0  2   9 11  8 .306 .333 .516 .849     *989      Rocco Baldelli  122 .231  70 14 387 2006  24 TBD AL  92 364  59 110 24  6 16  57   1   7  0  2   2 10  1 .302 .339 .533 .871      *810      Juan Gonzalez  122 .278  73 14 346 2003  33 TEX AL  82 327  49  96 17  1 24  70   1   4  0  1  10  1  1 .294 .329 .572 .901     *9D11         Tony Armas  121 .263 156 32 679 1984  30 BOS AL 157 639 107 171 29  5 43 123   9   1  0  7  13  1  3 .268 .300 .531 .831   *8D/912        Kevin Young  120 .234  89 16 362 1997  28 PIT NL  97 333  59 100 18  3 18  74   1   4  1  8   6 11  2 .300 .332 .535 .867  *357/913          John Buck  115 .208 111 16 437 2010  29 TOR AL 118 409  53 115 25  0 20  66   1   6  0  6   6  0  0 .281 .314 .489 .802    *2/D14       Wily Mo Pena  115 .268 108 22 364 2004  22 CIN NL 110 336  45  87 10  1 26  66   1   6  0  0   7  5  2 .259 .316 .527 .843    98/715     Steve Scarsone  115 .210  82 18 261 1995  29 SFG NL  80 233  33  62 10  3 11  29   0   6  3  1   2  3  2 .266 .333 .476 .810    *54316        Cory Snyder  115 .228 123 16 433 1986  23 CLE AL 103 416  58 113 21  1 24  69   0   0  1  0   8  2  3 .272 .299 .500 .799 *965/7D17    Corey Patterson  114 .213  77 15 347 2003  23 CHC NL  83 329  49  98 17  7 13  55   2   1  0  2   5 16  5 .298 .329 .511 .839      *818         Tony Armas  114 .249  90 18 410 1985  31 BOS AL 103 385  50 102 17  5 23  64   4   2  0  5  14  0  0 .265 .298 .514 .812  *8D7/919     Jesse Barfield  112 .258 110 22 420 1983  23 TOR AL 128 388  58  98 13  3 27  68   0   4  1  5   8  2  5 .253 .296 .510 .806  *9/D8720         Bo Jackson  108 .226 146 25 468 1988  25 KCR AL 124 439  63 108 16  4 25  68   6   1  1  2   6 27  6 .246 .287 .472 .758  *79/8D21       Wily Mo Pena  105 .238 116 20 335 2005  23 CIN NL  99 311  42  79 17  0 19  51   0   3  0  1   7  2  1 .254 .304 .492 .796    *98722       Miguel Olivo  103 .241 126 19 416 2009  30 KCR AL 114 390  51  97 15  5 23  65   0   5  1  1  10  5  2 .249 .292 .490 .781     *2D23     Jose Hernandez   99 .237  69 13 268 1995  25 CHC NL  93 245  37  60 11  4 13  40   3   0  8  2   8  1  0 .245 .281 .482 .762     64524    Alfonso Soriano   98 .205  80 16 326 2011  35 CHC NL  89 308  33  76 15  0 16  47   3   1  0  1  11  1  1 .247 .285 .451 .737    *7/D25      Marcus Thames   98 .257  72 13 284 2007  30 DET AL  86 269  37  65 15  0 18  54   1   1  0  1   6  2  1 .242 .278 .498 .776   73/9DRk             Player OPS+  ISO  SO BB  PA Year Age  Tm Lg   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS     Pos26         Juan Uribe   98 .223  55  8 283 2001  21 COL NL  72 273  32  82 15 11  8  53   1   2  0  0   6  3  0 .300 .325 .524 .849      *627      Matt Williams   98 .253  72 14 311 1989  23 SFG NL  84 292  31  59 18  1 18  50   1   2  1  2   5  1  2 .202 .242 .455 .697     *5628   Andres Galarraga   97 .231 146 32 604 1995  34 COL NL 143 554  89 155 29  3 31 106   6  13  0  5  14 12  2 .280 .331 .511 .842      *329         Bo Jackson   94 .201 106 23 308 1993  30 CHW AL  85 284  32  66  9  0 16  45   1   0  0  1   5  0  2 .232 .289 .433 .722     D7930         Bo Jackson   94 .220 158 30 434 1987  24 KCR AL 116 396  46  93 17  2 22  53   0   5  1  2   3 10  4 .235 .296 .455 .750  *78/9D31        Cory Snyder   89 .220 166 31 615 1987  24 CLE AL 157 577  74 136 24  2 33  82   4   1  0  6   3  5  1 .236 .273 .456 .729    *96732        Chris Truby   86 .217  56 10 279 2000  26 HOU NL  78 258  28  67 15  4 11  59   1   5  1  5   4  2  1 .260 .295 .477 .772      *533        Chris Davis   85 .205 150 24 419 2009  23 TEX AL 113 391  48  93 15  1 21  59   2   2  0  2   6  0  0 .238 .284 .442 .726   *35/D34         Tony Armas   85 .235 131 29 613 1983  29 BOS AL 145 574  77 125 23  2 36 107   0   2  0  8  31  0  1 .218 .254 .453 .707     *8D35      Melvin Nieves   83 .214  88 19 262 1995  23 SDP NL  98 234  32  48  6  1 14  38   0   5  1  3   9  2  3 .205 .276 .419 .695  *79/8336       Andre Dawson   82 .226  53  9 306 1994  39 BOS AL  75 292  34  70 18  0 16  48   3   4  0  1  15  2  2 .240 .271 .466 .737      *D37        Brant Brown   81 .217 114 22 371 1999  28 PIT NL 130 341  49  79 20  3 16  58   3   4  0  4   4  3  4 .232 .283 .449 .732   98/3D38        Rod Barajas   80 .204  63 13 389 2004  28 TEX AL 108 358  50  89 26  1 15  58   0   3  8  7   3  0  1 .249 .276 .453 .728    *2/339         Juan Uribe   73 .205  82 13 495 2006  26 CHW AL 132 463  53 109 28  2 21  71   1   3  9  7  10  1  1 .235 .257 .441 .698      *6

Who woulda thought that the '85 vintage of the Sugar Bear would have the highest OPS+ among players with a 4.5:1 or worse K:BB ratio since 1980?

Until reading this post, my thought process was: hope he figures things out, expect mediocrity with a few extra HR's. That's still accurate, but...

Now my thought process is:

If we get lucky and he gets hot but doesn't show signs of improving plate discipline, don't be fooled. Hope someone else is fooled and try to flip him for more than we gave up. If he shows signs (beyond a hot slg%) that he can genuinely improve and sustain success, consider keeping him in the plans. That's possible, but doesn't seem likely. In other words, strictly from an overly simplified statistical outlook, if he bats .270/.300/.475 with a .350 babip (for example) and is still striking out a ton over a relatively small sample size of July-Sept, don't be fooled into thinking he's the man going forward.

JTrea (whom I actually think has had some accurate opinions on this one) suggested Davis could be a decent bench option/part-time DH. But it's been hard for this team to justify a bench spot for someone who doesn't play more infield positions. There have just been too many problems elsewhere to have that luxury.

Davis can go up and down this year (not that he will) but this is his last option year. So it's not even safe to say that they could have him in AAA as depth for injuries. (His ML time this year all came as a result of Beltre, Cruz, etc minor recurring injuries.)

[wildcard]

People with plate discipline issues become effective major league hitters all the time. It's just much harder. And for someone with Davis' profile it's essentially impossible for him to become a truly good major league hitter, not with a 5:1 K:BB ratio and a walk in only 6.7% of his plate appearances.

I'd expect him to fall somewhere in this range:

                                                                                                                                           Rk             Player OPS+  ISO  SO BB  PA Year Age  Tm Lg   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS     Pos1       Floyd Rayford  131 .214  69 10 372 1985  27 BAL AL 105 359  55 110 21  1 18  48   0   0  2  1  10  3  1 .306 .324 .521 .845   *52/D2     Alfonso Soriano  129 .247 157 23 741 2002  26 NYY AL 156 696 128 209 51  2 39 102   1  14  1  7   8 41 13 .300 .332 .547 .880    *4/D3       Roberto Kelly  128 .237  46  8 270 1998  33 TEX AL  75 257  48  83  7  3 16  46   0   3  1  1   4  0  2 .323 .349 .560 .910  *897/D4    Andres Galarraga  127 .273  93 19 449 1994  33 COL NL 103 417  77 133 21  0 31  85   8   8  0  5  10  8  3 .319 .356 .592 .949      *35      Jeff Francoeur  126 .249  58 11 274 2005  21 ATL NL  70 257  41  77 20  1 14  45   3   4  0  2   4  3  2 .300 .336 .549 .884      *96          Tony Armas  125 .218 115 19 462 1981  27 OAK AL 109 440  51 115 24  3 22  76   6   2  0  1   6  5  1 .261 .294 .480 .774    *9/87          Rex Hudler  123 .245  54  9 317 1996  35 CAL AL  92 302  60  94 20  3 16  40   0   3  2  1   7 14  5 .311 .337 .556 .893 *48/D738        Raul Mondesi  123 .210  78 16 454 1994  23 LAD NL 112 434  63 133 27  8 16  56   5   2  0  2   9 11  8 .306 .333 .516 .849     *989      Rocco Baldelli  122 .231  70 14 387 2006  24 TBD AL  92 364  59 110 24  6 16  57   1   7  0  2   2 10  1 .302 .339 .533 .871      *810      Juan Gonzalez  122 .278  73 14 346 2003  33 TEX AL  82 327  49  96 17  1 24  70   1   4  0  1  10  1  1 .294 .329 .572 .901     *9D11         Tony Armas  121 .263 156 32 679 1984  30 BOS AL 157 639 107 171 29  5 43 123   9   1  0  7  13  1  3 .268 .300 .531 .831   *8D/912        Kevin Young  120 .234  89 16 362 1997  28 PIT NL  97 333  59 100 18  3 18  74   1   4  1  8   6 11  2 .300 .332 .535 .867  *357/913          John Buck  115 .208 111 16 437 2010  29 TOR AL 118 409  53 115 25  0 20  66   1   6  0  6   6  0  0 .281 .314 .489 .802    *2/D14       Wily Mo Pena  115 .268 108 22 364 2004  22 CIN NL 110 336  45  87 10  1 26  66   1   6  0  0   7  5  2 .259 .316 .527 .843    98/715     Steve Scarsone  115 .210  82 18 261 1995  29 SFG NL  80 233  33  62 10  3 11  29   0   6  3  1   2  3  2 .266 .333 .476 .810    *54316        Cory Snyder  115 .228 123 16 433 1986  23 CLE AL 103 416  58 113 21  1 24  69   0   0  1  0   8  2  3 .272 .299 .500 .799 *965/7D17    Corey Patterson  114 .213  77 15 347 2003  23 CHC NL  83 329  49  98 17  7 13  55   2   1  0  2   5 16  5 .298 .329 .511 .839      *818         Tony Armas  114 .249  90 18 410 1985  31 BOS AL 103 385  50 102 17  5 23  64   4   2  0  5  14  0  0 .265 .298 .514 .812  *8D7/919     Jesse Barfield  112 .258 110 22 420 1983  23 TOR AL 128 388  58  98 13  3 27  68   0   4  1  5   8  2  5 .253 .296 .510 .806  *9/D8720         Bo Jackson  108 .226 146 25 468 1988  25 KCR AL 124 439  63 108 16  4 25  68   6   1  1  2   6 27  6 .246 .287 .472 .758  *79/8D21       Wily Mo Pena  105 .238 116 20 335 2005  23 CIN NL  99 311  42  79 17  0 19  51   0   3  0  1   7  2  1 .254 .304 .492 .796    *98722       Miguel Olivo  103 .241 126 19 416 2009  30 KCR AL 114 390  51  97 15  5 23  65   0   5  1  1  10  5  2 .249 .292 .490 .781     *2D23     Jose Hernandez   99 .237  69 13 268 1995  25 CHC NL  93 245  37  60 11  4 13  40   3   0  8  2   8  1  0 .245 .281 .482 .762     64524    Alfonso Soriano   98 .205  80 16 326 2011  35 CHC NL  89 308  33  76 15  0 16  47   3   1  0  1  11  1  1 .247 .285 .451 .737    *7/D25      Marcus Thames   98 .257  72 13 284 2007  30 DET AL  86 269  37  65 15  0 18  54   1   1  0  1   6  2  1 .242 .278 .498 .776   73/9DRk             Player OPS+  ISO  SO BB  PA Year Age  Tm Lg   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS     Pos26         Juan Uribe   98 .223  55  8 283 2001  21 COL NL  72 273  32  82 15 11  8  53   1   2  0  0   6  3  0 .300 .325 .524 .849      *627      Matt Williams   98 .253  72 14 311 1989  23 SFG NL  84 292  31  59 18  1 18  50   1   2  1  2   5  1  2 .202 .242 .455 .697     *5628   Andres Galarraga   97 .231 146 32 604 1995  34 COL NL 143 554  89 155 29  3 31 106   6  13  0  5  14 12  2 .280 .331 .511 .842      *329         Bo Jackson   94 .201 106 23 308 1993  30 CHW AL  85 284  32  66  9  0 16  45   1   0  0  1   5  0  2 .232 .289 .433 .722     D7930         Bo Jackson   94 .220 158 30 434 1987  24 KCR AL 116 396  46  93 17  2 22  53   0   5  1  2   3 10  4 .235 .296 .455 .750  *78/9D31        Cory Snyder   89 .220 166 31 615 1987  24 CLE AL 157 577  74 136 24  2 33  82   4   1  0  6   3  5  1 .236 .273 .456 .729    *96732        Chris Truby   86 .217  56 10 279 2000  26 HOU NL  78 258  28  67 15  4 11  59   1   5  1  5   4  2  1 .260 .295 .477 .772      *533        Chris Davis   85 .205 150 24 419 2009  23 TEX AL 113 391  48  93 15  1 21  59   2   2  0  2   6  0  0 .238 .284 .442 .726   *35/D34         Tony Armas   85 .235 131 29 613 1983  29 BOS AL 145 574  77 125 23  2 36 107   0   2  0  8  31  0  1 .218 .254 .453 .707     *8D35      Melvin Nieves   83 .214  88 19 262 1995  23 SDP NL  98 234  32  48  6  1 14  38   0   5  1  3   9  2  3 .205 .276 .419 .695  *79/8336       Andre Dawson   82 .226  53  9 306 1994  39 BOS AL  75 292  34  70 18  0 16  48   3   4  0  1  15  2  2 .240 .271 .466 .737      *D37        Brant Brown   81 .217 114 22 371 1999  28 PIT NL 130 341  49  79 20  3 16  58   3   4  0  4   4  3  4 .232 .283 .449 .732   98/3D38        Rod Barajas   80 .204  63 13 389 2004  28 TEX AL 108 358  50  89 26  1 15  58   0   3  8  7   3  0  1 .249 .276 .453 .728    *2/339         Juan Uribe   73 .205  82 13 495 2006  26 CHW AL 132 463  53 109 28  2 21  71   1   3  9  7  10  1  1 .235 .257 .441 .698      *6

Who woulda thought that the '85 vintage of the Sugar Bear would have the highest OPS+ among players with a 4.5:1 or worse K:BB ratio since 1980?

That is a pretty big range. Everything from Melvin Nieves 695 OPS to Andre Galarrage's 949 OPS

[Hank Scorpio]

I expect him to completely forget how to play baseball.

[JohnD]

My expectations are fairly low on this. I'm not sold this guy is anything more than a AAAA type. He's still young enough to show improvement, but with that BB/K rate I'm not so hopeful. Maybe he can be a good platoon guy, if the team can find someone to work with. But assuming, or even hoping this solves the long term hole there would be foolish. I'm enormously high on Hunter. I'd have made the trade even up for that guy.

[Tony-OH]

According to Baseball Reference "Similar batters through age 24", Chris Davis has some nice company:

Carlos Delgado (980)

Justin Morneau (971)

Dick Gernert (962)

Jose Cruz (961)

Willie Stargell (954) *

Brian Hunter (953)

Frank Thomas (952)

Pat Burrell (952)

Albert Belle (948)

Melvin Nieves (946)

The high average in the minors despite the lack of walks and high K rate gives me hope that he could be better then a lot of people think. Grant it he's played in some hitters' parks, but he's got a chance to become a good player over at first base. In case anyone was wondering, he's only nine months older than Brandon Snyder and 11 months older than Joe Mahoney yet has already put up a .751 OPS in 957 major league plate appearances. Snyder has a career .771 minor league OPS and Mahoney has a career .769 OPS. In other words, he's clearly a better option at first base for the Orioles for now.

[NewMarketSean]

I expect him to completely forget how to play baseball.

Yup. He'll be the 1B version of Josh Bell.