BASH BROTHERS PART DEUX has begun

[Remember The Alomar]

I still think they will make an effort. We need that kind of a bat. Why wouldn't we. We won't get him, because he will want 8/200M to play in B'more. I bet he goes to Cubs or Angels. But I think we make an offer 6/140'sh. Depends onthe GM situation.

I'd put money on Fielder going to the Angels. I think they'll feel a need to spend a bunch of money after being passed by the Rangers the past few years.

[waroriole]

I think he' sign for something in the neighborhood of 6/160M - 7/180M. We'll offer around 6/145M. You do the math.

Not within 10%. It's really just a token offer, but that's what I'd expect from this team.

[El Gordo]

Not within 10%. It's really just a token offer, but that's what I'd expect from this team.

I think that is a very reasonable offer. Fielder will produce in the neighborhood of 100M the first 5 years, and then decline to 25M or less over the final two years, IMO. So that would be a 20M O's surtax. When they make their offer they can't know what other teams are doing. Fielder is a crap shoot, becuase of Pujols, other teams' apprehensions over his weight, plus the Boras factor. Who really knows what he'll be offered.

[waroriole]

I think that is a very reasonable offer. Fielder will produce in the neighborhood of 100M the first 5 years, and then decline to 25M or less over the final two years, IMO. So that would be a 20M O's surtax. When they make their offer they can't know what other teams are doing. Fielder is a crap shoot, becuase of Pujols, other teams' apprehensions over his weight, plus the Boras factor. Who really knows what he'll be offered.

It might be a reasonable contract, but it's not a reasonable offer if you know that it's well below what he will get.

[olehippi]

Hey, if our starters can throw like Simon threw tonight, I don't see why not. It's amazing how many games a baseball team can win when their starting pitchers pitch well.

What starters? I only see Simon and Guthrie....and maybe Bergesen because the team is desperate. After that we have Matusz, Britton, Tillman, and an injured Arrieta - who generally now look horrible and mentally broken. Maybe Tommy Hunter can step up, but the reality is, we are more than a little short in the starter dept.

[LookitsPuck]

This team will not win if we just sign Fielder, Reyes, or whatever harebrained schemes people come up with the offense.

We are LOSING this year quite simply because of our pitching. Nothing else to it.

We are scoring 4.13 R/G. The league average is 4.34. Now, that's below average, but I pin that directly on the shoulders of our vets: Vladdy, Lee, and even Markakis (definitely missing Roberts hurts, also). I'm not worried about the offense, although I did envision us being above average (but not by much).

Our pitching is atrocious. Some horrific numbers, guys:

Allowing 5.30 R/G. League average: 4.29 [off average by a full run]. We are dead last. By a LARGE margin (Kansas City is second to last with 4.88 R/G, nearly half a run better)

4.86 ERA. League average: 3.93. we are dead last. And nearly a full run worse. Kansas City is second to last with a 4.51 ERA.

947 1/3 IP. League average: 972. We are dead last.

136 home runs allowed. League average: 99. We are dead last.

1033 hits. League average: 942. We are tied for last with Kansas City.

703 strike outs. League average: 737. We are 4th from last.

360 walks. League average: 336. We are 4th from last.

82 ERA+. League average: 101. We are dead last.

1.470 WHIP. League average: 1.315. We are dead last.

Guys, it's PITCHING that is screwing us NOT hitting. In order for us to even be .500 at this point:

We've allowed 562 runs.

We've scored 438 runs.

We'd need to have scored 124 more runs to at least be considered "average" by theory. If we scored 562 runs, we'd be up there with the Red Sox and Yankees at the top of the runs scored list. But the difference? We'd only be .500 and they'd still be 20-30 games over.

Sorry guys, the offense is not the problem. Even IF we had an average pitching staff (471 runs allowed), here's something to swallow:

The Red Sox have scored 595 runs. They've only allowed 454. That's a differential of 141.

The Yankees have scored 569 runs. They've only allowed 412. That's a differential of 157.

We've scored 438 runs. We've allowed 562. That's a differential of -124

They're better than us by 265/281 runs (Red Sox, Yankees respectively). Let that sink in.

Guess what guys, to get the offense that the Red Sox or Yankees have, it's going to take more than just Fielder. To compete with the Red Sox or Yankees, our pitching has to be AT LEAST average.

[El Gordo]

It might be a reasonable contract, but it's not a reasonable offer if you know that it's well below what he will get.

How will you know what the offer he takes will be? Believe what Ken Rosenthal says it is?:rolleyestf:

[NCRaven]

After Guthrie, Simon, and Hunter, we have no starting pitching that we can rely on right now. Unfortunately, Custer got massacred again. Arrieta is going to be shutdown, he might have been a fourth. Matusz and Britton have been huge disappointments. Having to pick two from Bergesen, Jakubobaliscous, and ? is downright depressing.

[waroriole]

How will you know what the offer he takes will be? Believe what Ken Rosenthal says it is?:rolleyestf:

I'd imagine they will have a good idea of what the contract will be. Obviously not specifics, but they'll know if they're close.

[El Gordo]

I'd imagine they will have a good idea of what the contract will be. Obviously not specifics, but they'll know if they're close.

You live in a fantasy world if you think that. Boras will be clear about wanting 8/200M. GM's will be equally clear about laughing at that publically. Then every body waits to see what happens with Pujols. The teams that are in on him make their offers and the ones eying Fielder maybe make there's, or lay in the weeds. It's a poker game. Who can know what hand takes the pot, or what the pot will be. The players will be MIL, STL, CHINL, LAAA,TEX, GNATS, O's, and a mystery team.

[waroriole]

You live in a fantasy world if you think that. Boras will be clear about wanting 8/200M. GM's will be equally clear about laughing at that publically. Then every body waits to see what happens with Pujols. The teams that are in on him make their offers and the ones eying Fielder maybe make there's, or lay in the weeds. It's a poker game. Who can know what hand takes the pot, or what the pot will be. The players will be MIL, STL, CHINL, LAAA,TEX, GNATS, O's, and a mystery team.

Who said anything about going on Boras' word? If the GM doesn't know about what the contract will be then he shouldn't be a GM.

[El Gordo]

Who said anything about going on Boras' word? If the GM doesn't know about what the contract will be then he shouldn't be a GM.

Your not making sense. The contract should be what Fielder is likely to produce. Because of his weight issues, he can't be counted on for much more than 5 years at 100-120M. I think just about every GM would agree with that. But it's an auction. How much can you afford to overbid, against how badly do you need him? You can't believe the rumors and press leaks, because these are often just agent/GM gamesmanship.

[TXOriole]

His MLB UZR indicates otherwise. Now the scouting community may feel that he can improve with consistent time at 1B given his overall athleticism. But hey, Reynolds and Reimold are athletic too, and their defense is subpar.

This can be attributed to his woes at 3B. The guy is a stud at 1st, but Texas bounced him around quite a bit. Same problems with his bat. The guy never got any consistent AB's. They would leave him in the lineup long enough for him to strike out 10 times and hit 3 HR's and then ship him off to AAA...where he'd play regularly and tear it up.

I really think if he is given regular AB's he can become more confident as a hitter and prove how good he really is. The bonus to playing 1B in Baltimore is you shouldnt have to look over your shoulder too much.

[flashjordnk]

I can approve getting Aramis Ramirez in an all-in offseason.

The problem is that he's got a $16 million option for 2012 that the the Cubs will likely pick up so he's not going to be a FA.

So you leave Reynolds at 3B and move Davis to DH when you sign Fielder.

Davis can back up both corners and you can rotate the DH through the 3 of them.

And now this is another Fielder thread. Instead of talking about Davis's inability to really walk we're now back onto Fielder.

I thought it was interesting to note in 2009 he really was bad against the fastball. He was close to average against breaking stuff, but 10 runs below average against the fastball. Woulda thought a power guy like this would be more of a fastball type hitter.

[Frobby]

This team will not win if we just sign Fielder, Reyes, or whatever harebrained schemes people come up with the offense.

We are LOSING this year quite simply because of our pitching. Nothing else to it.

Nobody has spent more time than me this year advocating the position that pitching is the biggest problem we have, by far. However, I'm not sure we can get the pitching to be average or above by adding outside talent. If you think we can, tell me who you'd like to acquire, and how.

Obviously, no matter whether the pitching is good or bad, more runs scored = more wins. So if we can find a way to score 100 more runs, I'm in favor of doing it, even if that alone can't make us a contender. 100 runs ~ 10 extra wins. The rest can only come by improving the pitching. In my opinion, most of the pitching improvement is going to have to come from improvement by the young pitchers we already have. There simply aren't a lot of top starters out there on the market or available in a trade that makes sense.