Draft Hindsight - Don't Count Out Class of '09

[NCRaven]

A lot of people look at Billy Rowell and think what an aweful draft we had in '06 based on the failure of the top guy. But, we got Zach Britton (3rd Rd) in that draft and I think most of us still expect good things from him as he continues to get experience at the ML level. It also brought in Pedro Beato (1st/Sup Rd) who is proving himself in the Mets bullpen (not Jordan's fault that he isn't doing it in Baltimore). Ryan Adams (2nd Rd) has hit his way to AAA and had a cup of coffee in the bigs this year. Blake Davis (4th Rd) is making an argument for his value as a utility infielder at the ML level. And even Jason Berken (6th Rd) has had some success, half of last year, anyway, at the major league level.

Callis said 2 guys making it to the bigs is a successful draft. Even though Rowell isn't one of those guys and clearly is not likely ever to be, Britton and Beato look they they are, and others still have a opportunity. Not a bad draft, in hindsight, after all.

My point, is don't look at Hobgood and give up all hope for '09. Some of the overdrafts, for example, may still develop into ML players. Unfortunately, there doesn't look to be much hitting potential after Townsend and possibly Givens in that group.

Note: Pat Egan was a 36th round pick in '06; Kipp Schutz, 26th; that probably taps out those still having much of a shot. Edit: We didn't sign Schutz in '06, but redrafted him in '09 in the 19th round.

[Frobby]

A lot of people look at Billy Rowell and think what an aweful draft we had in '06 based on the failure of the top guy. But, we got Zach Britton (3rd Rd) in that draft and I think most of us still expect good things from him as he continues to get experience at the ML level. It also brought in Pedro Beato (1st/Sup Rd) who is proving himself in the Mets bullpen (not Jordan's fault that he isn't doing it in Baltimore). Ryan Adams (2nd Rd) has hit his way to AAA and had a cup of coffee in the bigs this year. Blake Davis (4th Rd) is making an argument for his value as a utility infielder at the ML level. And even Jason Berken (6th Rd) has had some success, half of last year, anyway, at the major league level.

Callis said 2 guys making it to the bigs is a successful draft. Even though Rowell isn't one of those guys and clearly is not likely ever to be, Britton and Beato look they they are, and others still have a opportunity. Not a bad draft, in hindsight, after all.

My point, is don't look at Hobgood and give up all hope for '09. Some of the overdrafts, for example, may still develop into ML players. Unfortunately, there doesn't look to be much hitting potential after Townsend and possibly Givens in that group.

Note: Pat Egan was a 36th round pick in '06; Kipp Schutz, 26th; that probably taps out those still having much of a shot. Edit: We didn't sign Schutz in '06, but redrafted him in '09 in the 19th round.

I'm not sure exactly what Callis said, but the average team debuts 6-8 players a year, 70% of whom come from the draft. Thus, an average draft class should produce 5+ players who reach the majors. Of course if you aren't producing Latin American players (almost 30% of the players who debut), then you need to average more than 5 coming out of the draft every year.

I'd certainly agree that if Britton develops into a solid starting pitcher that will take a lot of sting out of Rowell. Still, the '06 draft is unlikely to exceed so-so unless Britton becomes a very good starter.

As to '09, it is too early to say. But right now that class is horribly snakebitten and I think it's highly likely to be a bust.

[mcpd]

I'm not sure exactly what Callis said, but the average team debuts 6-8 players a year, 70% of whom come from the draft. Thus, an average draft class should produce 5+ players who reach the majors. Of course if you aren't producing Latin American players (almost 30% of the players who debut), then you need to average more than 5 coming out of the draft every year.

I'd certainly agree that if Britton develops into a solid starting pitcher that will take a lot of sting out of Rowell. Still, the '06 draft is unlikely to exceed so-so unless Britton becomes a very good starter.

As to '09, it is too early to say. But right now that class is horribly snakebitten and I think it's highly likely to be a bust.

If you get 1-2 players over five years of drafting you will get 6-8 players a year. You are not going to five players from the same draft make it every year. You have highschoolers who take 3-5 years then college guys who might take1-4 years.

[DrOrioles90210]

Of course every player from the same draft won't debut during the same year, but in order to debut 6-8 every year, about 5 players from every draft need to make it to the majors.

I think what Callis means is 1-2 good players, or the difference between Britton and a guy like Viola making their debuts.

[Orange Line]

I'm not sure what he exactly means by "good players" but here is the quote from Mr Melewski's article from earlier in the day

"If your team gets two good players out of a draft, you are doing better than most of the other teams. The odds are stacked against them. But if you look at it as an investment, the potential return on the investment is tremendous," Callis said.

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2011/08/what-makes-a-good-draft.html

[Frobby]

I'm not sure what he exactly means by "good players" but here is the quote from Mr Melewski's article from earlier in the day

"If your team gets two good players out of a draft, you are doing better than most of the other teams. The odds are stacked against them. But if you look at it as an investment, the potential return on the investment is tremendous," Callis said.

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2011/08/what-makes-a-good-draft.html

Yes, this is true. For this purpose, "good" would mean someone who sticks in the majors for 3+ full years. Two of those a year is pretty decent.

Callis also said 10-12% of draftees make the majors, which translates to 5-6 per team, as I said. He said maybe three dozen would have solid careers, so that's 1.2 per team. Our 2007 draft has a decent chance of producing two, Wieters and Arrieta.

[mark_beckens]

Yes, this is true. For this purpose, "good" would mean someone who sticks in the majors for 3+ full years. Two of those a year is pretty decent.

Callis also said 10-12% of draftees make the majors, which translates to 5-6 per team, as I said. He said maybe three dozen would have solid careers, so that's 1.2 per team. Our 2007 draft has a decent chance of producing two, Wieters and Arrieta.

10-12% of all drafted players, or those who sign?

[GoldGlove21]

If 10%-12% stick than I would think that increasing the number of players you bring in would be a smart move. This holds especially true with compensation picks. If you spent $7.25M on Lee than what is his Return on Investment (ROI)? Use those monies to get the best prospects via overslot deals. Over the last 3 years the Nationals and Pirates are kicking everyone's hindparts and they are getting very good prospects. Role the dice with Mega Millions because you are set if you win. Do that verses buying scratch offs that only have limited return even if you win.

I will say it again, if the Orioles have a team payroll of $85M than I want guys moved until it gets down to $40M-$56M and pump the rest into the draft, international markets and player development. Go out and get the best organizations guys by offering 1.5-2 times what they make somewhere else and let them balk at the number.

[Frobby]

10-12% of all drafted players, or those who sign?

Good point -- Callis was referring to players drafted and signed. I don't know what percentage of players drafted are signed. The O's only signed 22 of 50 this year, but that's atypical and is the result of eliminating two farm teams last offseason. The year before they signed 43 of 50.

I still believe I am correct that the average team drafts and signs 4-6 players a year who make it to the majors.

[NCRaven]

Good point -- Callis was referring to players drafted and signed. I don't know what percentage of players drafted are signed. The O's only signed 22 of 50 this year, but that's atypical and is the result of eliminating two farm teams last offseason. The year before they signed 43 of 50.

I still believe I am correct that the average team drafts and signs 4-6 players a year who make it to the majors.

Well Adams, Angle and Blake Davis made their debuts this year. But are they "major league" players? Sure, 5 or 6 players may make their debuts, but I only 1 or 2 of them will have any kind of MLB career, even as a utility player or reliever. This year, it looks like Britton is that guy.

And, you're right, we probably can stick a fork in the '09 class, but we might as well hold out hope, it's all we got.

[Frobby]

Well Adams, Angle and Blake Davis made their debuts this year. But are they "major league" players? Sure, 5 or 6 players may make their debuts, but I only 1 or 2 of them will have any kind of MLB career, even as a utility player or reliever. This year, it looks like Britton is that guy.

And, you're right, we probably can stick a fork in the '09 class, but we might as well hold out hope, it's all we got.

You are right that the number of guys who have brief ML careers is much bigger than the number of guys who last. I wouldn't rule out Davis, Adams and Angle though the odds aren't in their favor.

[Frobby]

Best Oriole drafts:

1967 -- 1. Grich (67.6 WAR) and 2. Baylor (29.3 WAR)

1973 -- 3. Murray (66.7 WAR) and 7. Flanagan (23.9 WAR)

1978 -- 2. Ripken 89.3 WAR and 6. Boddicker (29.0 WAR)

1987 -- 3. Harnisch (15.5 WAR), 9. Voigt (2.9 WAR), 13. Finley (40.5 WAR) and 18. Segui (7.9 WAR). They also drafted Mussina in the 11th round but he went to Stanford instead.

1988 -- 1. Olson (13.8 WAR) and 3. Rhodes (13.1 WAR).

1989 -- 1. McDonald (19.8 WAR) and 17. Zaun (10.5 WAR)

1990 -- 1. Mussina (74.7 WAR) and 10. D. Buford (2.1 WAR)

1997 -- 1. Werth (20.0 WAR), 11. Hairston (9.5 WAR) and 26. Carrasco (4.1 WAR)

1999 -- 1s. Roberts (21.8 WAR), 6. Bedard (18.3 WAR), 24 Harris (3.1 WAR).

2003 -- 1. Markakis (19.2 WAR) and 3. Ray (3.4 WAR)

Note: all WAR numbers are rWAR from before 2011.

The Jordan drafts:

2005: Hernandez, Reimold, Snyder, Olson

2006: Britton, Davis, Beato, Berken, Adams

2007: Wieters, Arrieta, Angle

2008: Matusz

None of the players drafted since 2008 have made the majors yet, but that's not particularly unusual.

From 2005, Spoone and Erbe remain of interest. From 2006, Henson and Egan might get a cup of coffee. From 2007, Bascom, Mahoney and McCurry might get a look. From 2008, Avery, Hoes, Hudson, Miclat, Joseph, and Bundy all have a shot at reaching the majors.

[allstar1579]

Nice list Frobby!

As an asterisk, I refuse to acknowledge the 1999 draft because of all of the misses as well. They did find Roberts, Bedard and Harris, but the fact that they missed on FIVE picks before Roberts is just too much for me to forgive. That' s just a personal thing though.

[Frobby]

Nice list Frobby!

As an asterisk, I refuse to acknowledge the 1999 draft because of all of the misses as well. They did find Roberts, Bedard and Harris, but the fact that they missed on FIVE picks before Roberts is just too much for me to forgive. That' s just a personal thing though.

I have analyzed this in some depth, and I think the 1999 draft does not deserve the infamy it has received. Only 45% of all the players drafted in the first round (and 1st supplemental) in 1999 made it to the majors. The Orioles had no picks higher than 13, and if you exclude the 12 players picked ahead of them, only 16 of 39 (41%) made it to the majors. The O's had 3 of 7 (43%), including BRob, who despite being the 50th overall pick is no. 3 in that entire 1st round in total WAR (only overall no. 9 Zito and no. 2 Beckett have done better to date; overall no. 1 pick Josh Hamilton is likely to pass BRob). Bigbie, who was the 21st pick, ranks 14th in WAR among the 1/1s picks that year. Throw in the fact that we stole Bedard in the 6th round and plucked a solid player in Willie Harris in the 24th round and I'd say that's an excellent draft.

Only two teams got more WAR out of the 1999 draft than the Orioles. The Cardinals stumbled on Albert Pujols in the 13th round and also drafted Coco Crisp in the 7th. The Rays drafted Hamilton no. 1 overall, drafted Carl Crawford in the 2nd round, and also landed Matt Diaz in the 17th round.

Bottom line is that while we didn't have a great 1st round, it was only average, not terrible by any means, and our picks in the later rounds were very productive.

[allstar1579]

I have analyzed this in some depth, and I think the 1999 draft does not deserve the infamy it has received. Only 45% of all the players drafted in the first round (and 1st supplemental) in 1999 made it to the majors. The Orioles had no picks higher than 13, and if you exclude the 12 players picked ahead of them, only 16 of 39 (41%) made it to the majors. The O's had 3 of 7 (43%), including BRob, who despite being the 50th overall pick is no. 3 in that entire 1st round in total WAR (only overall no. 9 Zito and no. 2 Beckett have done better to date; overall no. 1 pick Josh Hamilton is likely to pass BRob). Bigbie, who was the 21st pick, ranks 14th in WAR among the 1/1s picks that year. Throw in the fact that we stole Bedard in the 6th round and plucked a solid player in Willie Harris in the 24th round and I'd say that's an excellent draft.

Only two teams got more WAR out of the 1999 draft than the Orioles. The Cardinals stumbled on Albert Pujols in the 13th round and also drafted Coco Crisp in the 7th. The Rays drafted Hamilton no. 1 overall, drafted Carl Crawford in the 2nd round, and also landed Matt Diaz in the 17th round.

Bottom line is that while we didn't have a great 1st round, it was only average, not terrible by any means, and our picks in the later rounds were very productive.

I know it was generally a pretty weak draft by what made it to the majors, but to have 6 picks in the first and supplemental and find ONE ML player is pretty awful. I know they were taking players they thought they could sign cheap because they had so many picks, and I think that in part is why it wasn't a very good draft. Guys like Crawford and Lackey were out there in the 2nd, but even at the time of the draft a lot of people were scratching their heads over some of those picks. It was such a waste.