Draft Hindsight - Don't Count Out Class of '09

[allstar1579]

Yet somehow those 7 picks ended up producing more WAR than the average picks in those same slots as Frobby showed and a higher % of those picks made the majors than the average of picks within that range that year. So again, they did better than their peers with picks in that range in either way of judging them. And it wasn't 1-7 either. So you should just have a problem with the ways teams in general drafted, since they did worse than the O's within that range.

No, ONE of those picks produced a ton of WAR, and you are lumping him into the rest to support your argument. My argument is that they should have had 2-3 other players with similar WAR with that many high picks. Someone dropped the ball to take Paradis over Jennings and Lackey, to take Reed over Crawford (those are just the apples to apples picks I'm willing to compare, you could make an argument that they were trying to save money like the Rays this year and not take the best talent on the board for fear of costs, and that is not the way to build a team like they needed to do. The difference between other teams and the O's is that the O's alone were responsible for 14% of those picks in total. Other teams missed once or twice in that period, not 6 times. And yes it was 1-7, Bigbie was no success in the majors, he was serviceable for a couple years but far from an all-star, and he's the only one you can really make an argument for besides Roberts, and like I said before, even then, Roberts was an accident.

[mweb]

No, ONE of those picks produced a ton of WAR, and you are lumping him into the rest to support your argument. My argument is that they should have had 2-3 other players with similar WAR with that many high picks. Someone dropped the ball to take Paradis over Jennings and Lackey, to take Reed over Crawford (those are just the apples to apples picks I'm willing to compare, you could make an argument that they were trying to save money like the Rays this year and not take the best talent on the board for fear of costs, and that is not the way to build a team like they needed to do. The difference between other teams and the O's is that the O's alone were responsible for 14% of those picks in total. Other teams missed once or twice in that period, not 6 times. And yes it was 1-7, Bigbie was no success in the majors, he was serviceable for a couple years but far from an all-star, and he's the only one you can really make an argument for besides Roberts, and like I said before, even then, Roberts was an accident.

Haha, ok. The O's should have not only picked the most productive player that was picked in their range, they should have also picked 2-3 more that almost all the other teams also missed on. And it doesn't matter that they got a really good player in ther 6th round. And it doesn't matter that they got 2 other guys in the first round that made the majors and were better than the average pick in that spot. Oh, and their best pick was a fluke. Whatever. Obviously the facts aren't going to sway you from your already established position. Good day.

[Frobby]

No, ONE of those picks produced a ton of WAR, and you are lumping him into the rest to support your argument. My argument is that they should have had 2-3 other players with similar WAR with that many high picks.

And that is simply expecting too much. There aren't that many 20 WAR players around, and it's hard to pick even one. Here are a few years around the 1999 draft, and the number of players chosen in the first round who have accumulated either 20+ or 10-20 WAR:

1997 - 6/2 (52 picks)

1998 - 2/8 (43 picks)

1999 - 4/3 (51 picks)

2000 - 3/1 (40 picks)

2001 - 3/2 (44 picks)

In 1999, the odds of picking a player worth 10+ WAR in the 1st round were 7 out of 51 -- roughly one out of 7. The O's had 7 picks, and they got their one 10+ WAR player, in fact, they got a 20+ WAR player. So, good for them. It should not have been expected for them to find two 20+ WAR players, or even two 10+ WAR players, among 7 top 50 picks.

I think I've about beaten this horse to death. I'm sure you can find examples of teams that had multiple first round picks and knocked a few out of the park, but that that's a rarity.

[Stotle]

I think Frobby has done some great research when it comes to average outcomes in the draft (WAR per slot/round/etc.). I'm not sold on it as a proper measure on a draft-by-draft basis, and I think it is also probably relevant to note whether there are organizations that are better or worse than average on a regular basis (that is, are these averages true, or are they generally skewed with a few teams way better than most, or way worse than most, and thus affecting the "averages").

I don't have the time to do all of that leg work -- honestly, I'm impressed Frobby has found time to push the discussion forward as far as he has with all of his research.

After reading this discussion, I think it's safe to say the results of the draft were not as bad as has been made out in the past. The same, I haven't read anything convincing that would indicate that their picks put them in the best position to succeed. Not saying they were all terrible picks -- just that I don't personally know, and pointing to WAR only tells us about results and not process.

[mark_beckens]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/history/draft/draft.jsp?year=1999&type=junreg

TYPE ROUND PICK NAME POS DRAFTED BY SIGNED SCHOOL

JR 1 1 Hamilton, Josh OF Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Athens Drive HS (Raleigh, NC)

JR 1 2 Beckett, Josh P Florida Marlins - Spring HS (TX)

JR 1 3 Munson, Eric C Detroit Tigers - University of Southern California

JR 1 4 Myers, Corey SS Arizona Diamondbacks - Desert Vista, HS (Scottsdale, AZ)

JR 1 5 Garbe, B.J. OF Minnesota Twins - Moses Lake HS (WA) -.--

JR 1 6 Girdley, Joshua P Montreal Expos - Jasper HS (TX) -.--

JR 1 7 Snyder, Kyle P Kansas City Royals - University of North Carolina

JR 1 8 Bradley, Bobby P Pittsburgh Pirates - Wellington Community HS (FL)

JR 1 9 Zito, Barry P Oakland Athletics - University of Southern California

JR 1 10 Sheets, Ben P Milwaukee Brewers - Northeast Louisiana University

JR 1 11 Christianson, Ryan C Seattle Mariners - Arlington HS (Riverside, CA)

JR 1 12 Myers, Brett P Philadelphia Phillies - Englewood Senior HS (Jacksonville, FL)

JR 1 13 Paradis, Mike P Baltimore Orioles - Clemson University

JR 1 14 Howington, Ty P Cincinnati Reds - Hudson's Bay HS (Vancouver, WA)

JR 1 15 Stumm, Jason P Chicago White Sox - Centralia HS (WA)

JR 1 16 Jennings, Jason P Colorado Rockies - Baylor University

JR 1 17 Asadoorian, Rick OF Boston Red Sox - Northbridge HS (Whitinsville, MA)

JR 1 18 Stahl, Richard P Baltimore Orioles - Newton County HS (Covington, GA)

JR 1 19 Rios, Alex OF Toronto Blue Jays - San Pedro Martin HS (Guaynabo, PR)

JR 1 20 Faison, Vince OF San Diego Padres - Toombs County HS (Lyons, GA)

JR 1 21 Bigbie, Larry OF Baltimore Orioles - Ball State University

JR 1 22 Ginter, Matt P Chicago White Sox - Mississippi State University

JR 1 23 Reed, Keith OF Baltimore Orioles - Providence College

JR 1 24 Ainsworth, Kurt P San Francisco Giants - Louisiana State University

JR 1 25 MacDougal, Mike P Kansas City Royals - Wake Forest University

JR 1 26 Christensen, Ben P Chicago Cubs - Wichita State University

JR 1 27 Walling, Dave P New York Yankees - University of Arkansas

JR 1 28 Baxter, Gerik P San Diego Padres - Edmonds Woodway HS (WA)

JR 1 29 Ortiz, Omar P San Diego Padres - University of Texas-Pan American

JR 1 30 Caple, Chance P St. Louis Cardinals - Texas A&M University

JR C 31 Daigle, Casey P Arizona Diamondbacks - Sulphur HS (Vinton, LA)

JR C 32 Gehrke, Jay P Kansas City Royals - Pepperdine University

JR C 33 Heaverlo, Jeff P Seattle Mariners - University of Washington

JR C 34 Cenate, Joshua P Baltimore Orioles - Jefferson HS (Charlestown, WV)

JR C 35 West, Brian P Chicago White Sox - West Monroe HS (West Monroe, LA)

JR C 36 Stocks, Nick P St. Louis Cardinals - Florida State University

JR C 37 Repko, Jason OF Los Angeles Dodgers - Hanford HS (West Richland, WA)

JR C 38 Lewis, Colby P Texas Rangers - Bakersfield Junior College

JR C 39 Williams, Jerome P San Francisco Giants - Waipahu HS (Waipahu, Hawaii)

JR C 40 Baker, Brad P Boston Red Sox - Pioneer Valley Regional School HS (Leyden, MA)

JR C 41 Burns, Casey P San Diego Padres - University of Richmond

JR C 42 Rosamond, Michael SS Houston Astros - University of Mississippi

JR C 43 Gobble, Jimmy P Kansas City Royals - John S. Battle School HS (Bristol, VA)

JR C 44 Rice, Scott P Baltimore Orioles - Royal HS (Simi Valley, CA)

JR C 45 Purvis, Robert P Chicago White Sox - Bradley University

JR C 46 Duncan, Chris 1B St. Louis Cardinals - Canyon Del Oro HS (Tucson, AZ)

JR C 47 Mead, David P Texas Rangers - Soddy Daisy HS (Sale Creek, TN)

JR C 48 Fossum, Casey P Boston Red Sox - Texas A&M University

JR C 49 Bynum, Mike P San Diego Padres - University of North Carolina

JR C 50 Roberts, Brian SS Baltimore Orioles - University of South Carolina

How about we look at the first round and judge the talent available. There are alot of players that did little to nothing in the first round. Obviously it was a really weak draft. San Diego had 5 picks, and got less from them then we did.

[Frobby]

I think Frobby has done some great research when it comes to average outcomes in the draft (WAR per slot/round/etc.). I'm not sold on it as a proper measure on a draft-by-draft basis, and I think it is also probably relevant to note whether there are organizations that are better or worse than average on a regular basis (that is, are these averages true, or are they generally skewed with a few teams way better than most, or way worse than most, and thus affecting the "averages").

I don't have the time to do all of that leg work -- honestly, I'm impressed Frobby has found time to push the discussion forward as far as he has with all of his research.

After reading this discussion, I think it's safe to say the results of the draft were not as bad as has been made out in the past. The same, I haven't read anything convincing that would indicate that their picks put them in the best position to succeed. Not saying they were all terrible picks -- just that I don't personally know, and pointing to WAR only tells us about results and not process.

I can't argue with any of this. I wasn't following the draft at all in 1999. It wasn't covered as intently in those days, like a lot of other things.

[Stotle]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/history/draft/draft.jsp?year=1999&type=junreg

TYPE ROUND PICK NAME POS DRAFTED BY SIGNED SCHOOL

JR 1 1 Hamilton, Josh OF Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Athens Drive HS (Raleigh, NC)

JR 1 2 Beckett, Josh P Florida Marlins - Spring HS (TX)

JR 1 3 Munson, Eric C Detroit Tigers - University of Southern California

JR 1 4 Myers, Corey SS Arizona Diamondbacks - Desert Vista, HS (Scottsdale, AZ)

JR 1 5 Garbe, B.J. OF Minnesota Twins - Moses Lake HS (WA) -.--

JR 1 6 Girdley, Joshua P Montreal Expos - Jasper HS (TX) -.--

JR 1 7 Snyder, Kyle P Kansas City Royals - University of North Carolina

JR 1 8 Bradley, Bobby P Pittsburgh Pirates - Wellington Community HS (FL)

JR 1 9 Zito, Barry P Oakland Athletics - University of Southern California

JR 1 10 Sheets, Ben P Milwaukee Brewers - Northeast Louisiana University

JR 1 11 Christianson, Ryan C Seattle Mariners - Arlington HS (Riverside, CA)

JR 1 12 Myers, Brett P Philadelphia Phillies - Englewood Senior HS (Jacksonville, FL)

JR 1 13 Paradis, Mike P Baltimore Orioles - Clemson University

JR 1 14 Howington, Ty P Cincinnati Reds - Hudson's Bay HS (Vancouver, WA)

JR 1 15 Stumm, Jason P Chicago White Sox - Centralia HS (WA)

JR 1 16 Jennings, Jason P Colorado Rockies - Baylor University

JR 1 17 Asadoorian, Rick OF Boston Red Sox - Northbridge HS (Whitinsville, MA)

JR 1 18 Stahl, Richard P Baltimore Orioles - Newton County HS (Covington, GA)

JR 1 19 Rios, Alex OF Toronto Blue Jays - San Pedro Martin HS (Guaynabo, PR)

JR 1 20 Faison, Vince OF San Diego Padres - Toombs County HS (Lyons, GA)

JR 1 21 Bigbie, Larry OF Baltimore Orioles - Ball State University

JR 1 22 Ginter, Matt P Chicago White Sox - Mississippi State University

JR 1 23 Reed, Keith OF Baltimore Orioles - Providence College

JR 1 24 Ainsworth, Kurt P San Francisco Giants - Louisiana State University

JR 1 25 MacDougal, Mike P Kansas City Royals - Wake Forest University

JR 1 26 Christensen, Ben P Chicago Cubs - Wichita State University

JR 1 27 Walling, Dave P New York Yankees - University of Arkansas

JR 1 28 Baxter, Gerik P San Diego Padres - Edmonds Woodway HS (WA)

JR 1 29 Ortiz, Omar P San Diego Padres - University of Texas-Pan American

JR 1 30 Caple, Chance P St. Louis Cardinals - Texas A&M University

JR C 31 Daigle, Casey P Arizona Diamondbacks - Sulphur HS (Vinton, LA)

JR C 32 Gehrke, Jay P Kansas City Royals - Pepperdine University

JR C 33 Heaverlo, Jeff P Seattle Mariners - University of Washington

JR C 34 Cenate, Joshua P Baltimore Orioles - Jefferson HS (Charlestown, WV)

JR C 35 West, Brian P Chicago White Sox - West Monroe HS (West Monroe, LA)

JR C 36 Stocks, Nick P St. Louis Cardinals - Florida State University

JR C 37 Repko, Jason OF Los Angeles Dodgers - Hanford HS (West Richland, WA)

JR C 38 Lewis, Colby P Texas Rangers - Bakersfield Junior College

JR C 39 Williams, Jerome P San Francisco Giants - Waipahu HS (Waipahu, Hawaii)

JR C 40 Baker, Brad P Boston Red Sox - Pioneer Valley Regional School HS (Leyden, MA)

JR C 41 Burns, Casey P San Diego Padres - University of Richmond

JR C 42 Rosamond, Michael SS Houston Astros - University of Mississippi

JR C 43 Gobble, Jimmy P Kansas City Royals - John S. Battle School HS (Bristol, VA)

JR C 44 Rice, Scott P Baltimore Orioles - Royal HS (Simi Valley, CA)

JR C 45 Purvis, Robert P Chicago White Sox - Bradley University

JR C 46 Duncan, Chris 1B St. Louis Cardinals - Canyon Del Oro HS (Tucson, AZ)

JR C 47 Mead, David P Texas Rangers - Soddy Daisy HS (Sale Creek, TN)

JR C 48 Fossum, Casey P Boston Red Sox - Texas A&M University

JR C 49 Bynum, Mike P San Diego Padres - University of North Carolina

JR C 50 Roberts, Brian SS Baltimore Orioles - University of South Carolina

How about we look at the first round and judge the talent available. There are alot of players that did little to nothing in the first round. Obviously it was a really weak draft. San Diego had 5 picks, and got less from them then we did.

The talent selected later was also available. Hamilton, Beckett, Zito, Sheets, Myers were the only names of substance not available to Baltimore.

[Frobby]

The talent selected later was also available. Hamilton, Beckett, Zito, Sheets, Myers were the only names of substance not available to Baltimore.

This is true, but I think the data I gave on the number of 1st round selections each year who reach either 20 WAR or 10-20 WAR still indicates that the Orioles "met par" in the 1999 first round. There are always going to be players who aren't chosen in the first round who turn out to be way better than many players who were first round selections. In fact, 1999 is the poster child for that, with Albert Pujols not getting selected until the 13th round. How could so many teams have missed on a talent like that? But it happens.

[Stotle]

This is true, but I think the data I gave on the number of 1st round selections each year who reach either 20 WAR or 10-20 WAR still indicates that the Orioles "met par" in the 1999 first round. There are always going to be players who aren't chosen in the first round who turn out to be way better than many players who were first round selections. In fact, 1999 is the poster child for that, with Albert Pujols not getting selected until the 13th round. How could so many teams have missed on a talent like that? But it happens.

I'm not saying Baltimore hsould have drafted "the good guys" from later in the draft. Just that the list provided isn't really getting at anything useful as relates to a discussion of "did Baltimore make the right draft decisions."

[LookinUp]

I'm not saying Baltimore hsould have drafted "the good guys" from later in the draft. Just that the list provided isn't really getting at anything useful as relates to a discussion of "did Baltimore make the right draft decisions."

It does suggest that the guys generally considered the top talent in that draft pretty much stunk. It wasn't a good draft at the top.

[Stotle]

It does suggest that the guys generally considered the top talent in that draft pretty much stunk. It wasn't a good draft at the top.

I don't necessarily draw that conclusion, though without having a firm grip on the total depth of the class I won't argue it strenuously. I know Crawford and Morneau came off the board in the first 3 rounds and both were highly regarded with some signability/refinement questions.

[Frobby]

I'm not saying Baltimore hsould have drafted "the good guys" from later in the draft. Just that the list provided isn't really getting at anything useful as relates to a discussion of "did Baltimore make the right draft decisions."

More closely, it addresses the question, "did the Orioles make worse draft decisions in the first round of the 1999 draft than most teams did, or than most teams usually do in the first round?" And the answer to both questions, in terms of results (not process), is "no."

I just find it funny that the 1999 draft gets singled out so frequently, when this team has had many, many drafts that were far worse. Heck, the previous seasom, 1998, we had 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders and whiffed on all four. The only two players we signed who ever played in the majors were Steve Bechler and Tim Raines, Jr., who combined for 0.4 WAR in their careers (Bechler, of course, died tragically young, but he was by no means a likely candidate to be a long term major leaguer). In the season following 1999, we whiffed on our first 31 picks before drafting Brandon Fahey (who didn't sign with us then but we re-drafted 2 years later) and Kurt Birkins. You tell me, why single out the 1999 draft as the bad one?

[Stotle]

More closely, it addresses the question, "did the Orioles make worse draft decisions in the first round of the 1999 draft than most teams did, or than most teams usually do in the first round?" And the answer to both questions, in terms of results (not process), is "no."

I just find it funny that the 1999 draft gets singled out so frequently, when this team has had many, many drafts that were far worse. Heck, the previous seasom, 1998, we had 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders and whiffed on all four. The only two players we signed who ever played in the majors were Steve Bechler and Tim Raines, Jr., who combined for 0.4 WAR in their careers (Bechler, of course, died tragically young, but he was by no means a likely candidate to be a long term major leaguer). In the season following 1999, we whiffed on our first 31 picks before drafting Brandon Fahey (who didn't sign with us then but we re-drafted 2 years later) and Kurt Birkins. You tell me, why single out the 1999 draft as the bad one?

I think it's probably because people compare it to the ML players that were lost, rather than the percentage of "hits" in other organizations.

As far as process goes -- shrug. Again, I have never dug into this class to figure out to total makeup, but there were over six players Baltimore liked more than Roberts and over eight players they liked more than Bedard (neither were HS kids that would come with the typical "signability" concern). So while I can look at results and say "good on you, Balmer!" I also see Baltimore's "hits" way down their preference list and scratch my head a little.