Everyday Players

[UnashamedRiver]

The pitchers who aren't good enough to have MLB careers more than about a year or two get worse because they get figured out before they can adjust and are not good enough to stick around. The pitchers who are good enough (Matusz, Arrieta, Britton) stick around long enough to work through their initial setbacks and get to adjust and improve from early struggles. That's the difference.

perhaps you are correct. All I'm saying is that the average pitcher has his best season his rookie year. It's not an opinion statement it's factual. Matusz and Arrieta are terrible. They are doing exactly what the majority of MLB pitchers do. Get worse every year.

[DrOrioles90210]

perhaps you are correct. All I'm saying is that the average pitcher has his best season his rookie year. It's not an opinion statement it's factual. Matusz and Arrieta are terrible. They are doing exactly what the majority of MLB pitchers do. Get worse every year.

First, where is this factual evidence that pitchers have their best season during their rookie year? And you realize both of those guys were hurt, right? Oh, and Arrieta and Matusz both pitched better in their second seasons than their first.

[UnashamedRiver]

First, where is this factual evidence that pitchers have their best season during their rookie year? And you realize both of those guys were hurt, right? Oh, and Arrieta and Matusz both pitched better in their second seasons than their first.

"As nuanced as the answer is for position players, it's much more of a crapshoot with pitchers due to the overwhelming attrition rate and other factors. In fact, pitchers are much more likely to have their peak seasons in their early 20's. Strikeout rate and velocity, in aggregate, actually decline each year a pitcher ages.

Anecdotally, even greats like Tim Lincecum have seen their K/9 decline from 10.5 to 9.8 from age 23 to 25 as he lost nearly 3 mph on his fastball. In his case, his improvements in command and his changeup have compensated, but that doesn't happen nearly as often as most fans think.

In short, position players tend to peak around 29-30, with wide variance and peak length based on player type. Pitcher peaks, in aggregate, actually occur in their early 20's."

http://www.quora.com/Baseball/At-what-ages-are-baseball-players-most-effective

[DrOrioles90210]

"As nuanced as the answer is for position players, it's much more of a crapshoot with pitchers due to the overwhelming attrition rate and other factors. In fact, pitchers are much more likely to have their peak seasons in their early 20's. Strikeout rate and velocity, in aggregate, actually decline each year a pitcher ages.

Anecdotally, even greats like Tim Lincecum have seen their K/9 decline from 10.5 to 9.8 from age 23 to 25 as he lost nearly 3 mph on his fastball. In his case, his improvements in command and his changeup have compensated, but that doesn't happen nearly as often as most fans think.

In short, position players tend to peak around 29-30, with wide variance and peak length based on player type. Pitcher peaks, in aggregate, actually occur in their early 20's."

http://www.quora.com/Baseball/At-what-ages-are-baseball-players-most-effective

Your factual evidence is an answer to someone's question on a Q and A site where anyone can answer? It doesn't even say that pitchers have their best season their rookie season. It says they're more likely to have their best season in their early 20s as opposed to position players who usually have their peak closer to 30.

Wait, is the person who answered you?

[UnashamedRiver]

Your factual evidence is an answer to someone's question on a Q and A site where anyone can answer? It doesn't even say that pitchers have their best season their rookie season. It says they're more likely to have their best season in their early 20s as opposed to position players who usually have their peak closer to 30.

Wait, is the person who answered you?

shall I find another site?

[DrOrioles90210]

shall I find another site?

Yes, find factual evidence and not just someone stating the same argument as you unless that person is well regarded within baseball or also provides factual evidence.

[UnashamedRiver]

"Projecting growth that’s not likely to happen. Lots of people have gone around saying that Giants pitchers are younger, and therefore likely to still improve. That may happen, but it’s not likely to happen. While hitters tend to peak in their late twenties, pitchers do not age along such a curve. According to MGL, the average pitcher peaks in his early 20’s, which means that for most pitchers, their first year is their best one."

http://www.baycityball.com/2010/12/16/cliff-lee-and-delusions/

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/no_matter_how_i_slice_or_dice_it_pitchers_get_worse_every_year/

[sangar]

Again, as I stated in the other thread addressing this issue, these studies include injured pitchers. Our pitchers are not injuried. If one filters out pitchers with major arm/shoulder injuries the results are significantly different.

[Frobby]

"Projecting growth that’s not likely to happen. Lots of people have gone around saying that Giants pitchers are younger, and therefore likely to still improve. That may happen, but it’s not likely to happen. While hitters tend to peak in their late twenties, pitchers do not age along such a curve. According to MGL, the average pitcher peaks in his early 20’s, which means that for most pitchers, their first year is their best one."

http://www.baycityball.com/2010/12/16/cliff-lee-and-delusions/

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/no_matter_how_i_slice_or_dice_it_pitchers_get_worse_every_year/

Pretty enlightening. That includes an awful lot of guys who never have a 2nd year in the majors. I'd bet if you looked at the universe of pitchers who played 5 years in the majors, not many of them had their best year in their first year. But I think your overarching point is that we can't necessarily expect these pitchers to improve with experience. Some do, and those are the ones you have to count on; but a lot don't.

[BaltimoreTerp]

"Projecting growth that’s not likely to happen. Lots of people have gone around saying that Giants pitchers are younger, and therefore likely to still improve. That may happen, but it’s not likely to happen. While hitters tend to peak in their late twenties, pitchers do not age along such a curve. According to MGL, the average pitcher peaks in his early 20’s, which means that for most pitchers, their first year is their best one."

http://www.baycityball.com/2010/12/16/cliff-lee-and-delusions/

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/no_matter_how_i_slice_or_dice_it_pitchers_get_worse_every_year/

I was going to reply with the second link, because instead of the single paragraph within the blog post that is what you should have posted for your evidence. It is the source for the information.

[UnashamedRiver]

Again, as I stated in the other thread addressing this issue, these studies include injured pitchers. Our pitchers are not injuried. If one filters out pitchers with major arm/shoulder injuries the results are significantly different.

AL Cy Young

2010: Age 23

2009: Age 25

2008: Age 29

2007: Age 26

NL Cy Young

2010: Age 32

2009: Age 24

2008: Age 23

2007: Age 25

Ages they were at the start of the season. Even the greats have trouble excelling much after age 25-26.

[DrOrioles90210]

"Projecting growth that’s not likely to happen. Lots of people have gone around saying that Giants pitchers are younger, and therefore likely to still improve. That may happen, but it’s not likely to happen. While hitters tend to peak in their late twenties, pitchers do not age along such a curve. According to MGL, the average pitcher peaks in his early 20’s, which means that for most pitchers, their first year is their best one."

http://www.baycityball.com/2010/12/16/cliff-lee-and-delusions/

While this guy is not well regarded nor does he provide any facts that you can see without buying his book, I would like to see his research for pitchers that stayed in the big leagues for at least 5 to 6 years. I bet those pitchers did not have their best year in their rookie year.

Most pitchers do not find success in the big leagues and don't pitch more than a year or two. Those who are good enough, stay long enough to improve. I don't think that it's that pitchers don't improve, it's that most pitchers aren't given to opportunity to pitch in the big leagues long enough to do so.

[UnashamedRiver]

I'm not trying to argue with anyone or look like a jerk. My sole purpose of this argument was to prove that our guys are not young by any stretch of imagination and that we shouldn't expect drastic improvement.

[DrOrioles90210]

I'm not trying to argue with anyone or look like a jerk. My sole purpose of this argument was to prove that our guys are not young by any stretch of imagination and that we shouldn't expect drastic improvement.

What I'm saying is, Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton have earned the opportunity (in the minors and somewhat in the majors) to stick around for a while to get the experience that most pitchers ("the aggregate") don't get in order to improve. You can't reasonably look at their rookie years and think that they will never pitch better than that given a couple years to work with ML pitching coaches and learn how to pitch at the big league level.

[UnashamedRiver]

What I'm saying is, Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton have earned the opportunity (in the minors and somewhat in the majors) to stick around for a while to get the experience that most pitchers ("the aggregate") don't get in order to improve. You can't reasonably look at their rookie years and think that they will never pitch better than that given a couple years to work with ML pitching coaches and learn how to pitch at the big league level.

look at the ages of the cy youngs I posted. I ignored pre 2007 because before then it was all about wins. and possible steroid use.