Everyday Players

[DrOrioles90210]

look at the ages of the cy youngs I posted. I ignored pre 2007 because before then it was all about wins. and possible steroid use.

And which of those 7 had their best year their rookie season?

[UnashamedRiver]

Also. I'm not sure why many people are confused about why the peak is young, around ages 21-25. Well after age 25 you start to die physiologically. No matter how much experience you have. Your cells break down and they don't replenish as fast as they break down.

[UnashamedRiver]

And which of those 7 had their best year their rookie season?

none, but the average rookie is aged 24 and all of them were called up before their age 24 season.

[Oriology]

AL Cy Young

2010: Age 23

2009: Age 25

2008: Age 29

2007: Age 26

NL Cy Young

2010: Age 32

2009: Age 24

2008: Age 23

2007: Age 25

Ages they were at the start of the season. Even the greats have trouble excelling much after age 25-26.

For AL guys, King Felix turned 24 on April 8, 2010...so one week after the season started...and it was his 6th year in professional baseball. Greinke in 2009...6th season. Lee in 2008...6th/7th season depending how you look at it. Sabathia in 2007...7th season.

For NL, Halladay in 2010...12th season. Lincecum in 2008 and 2009...2nd and 3rd seasons. Peavy in 2007...6th season

So, for one, none are rookies, and only one of them (albeit a repeat winner) had yet to play his 6th season before winning the Cy Young...these guys really can't sustain success!

[DrOrioles90210]

For AL guys, King Felix turned 24 on April 8, 2010...so one week after the season started...and it was his 6th year in professional baseball. Greinke in 2009...6th season. Lee in 2008...6th/7th season depending how you look at it. Sabathia in 2007...7th season.

For NL, Halladay in 2010...12th season. Lincecum in 2008 and 2009...2nd and 3rd seasons. Peavy in 2007...6th season

So, for one, none are rookies, and only one of them (albeit a repeat winner) had yet to play his 6th season before winning the Cy Young...these guys really can't sustain success!

Those guys don't count anymore because they no longer support UnashamedRiver's point.

[UnashamedRiver]

For AL guys, King Felix turned 24 on April 8, 2010...so one week after the season started...and it was his 6th year in professional baseball. Greinke in 2009...6th season. Lee in 2008...6th/7th season depending how you look at it. Sabathia in 2007...7th season.

For NL, Halladay in 2010...12th season. Lincecum in 2008 and 2009...2nd and 3rd seasons. Peavy in 2007...6th season

So, for one, none are rookies, and only one of them (albeit a repeat winner) had yet to play his 6th season before winning the Cy Young...these guys really can't sustain success!

The rule of thumb is. Most pitchers get worse after their rookie year because the average rookie is aged 24. Those guys were so good that they got to the majors before most others. Most were still around the age of 25.

[DrOrioles90210]

The rule of thumb is. Most pitchers get worse after their rookie year because the average rookie is aged 24.

That's not the rule of thumb because nobody believes that.

[UnashamedRiver]

That's not the rule of thumb because nobody believes that.

the guy made a study. What he found was that most pitchers get worse every single year. That includes the ones that get injured. Throughout your career you are constantly losing stuff. Most pitchers cannot evolve and it hurts them. King Felix entered the league throwing 102. Lincecum threw 102 in college, but he was throwing only 99 by the time he was a rookie and now struggles to throw 96. Both these guys have masked this by improving in other areas. Most pitchers like Brian Matusz, cannot mask a loss in stuff.

[DrOrioles90210]

the guy made a study. What he found was that most pitchers get worse every single year. That includes the ones that get injured. Throughout your career you are constantly losing stuff. Most pitchers cannot evolve and it hurts them. King Felix entered the league throwing 102. Lincecum threw 102 in college, but he was throwing only 99 by the time he was a rookie and now struggles to throw 96. Both these guys have masked this by improving in other areas. Most pitchers like Brian Matusz, cannot mask a loss in stuff.

Lots of people do studies. This guy even admitted that most other researchers did not get the same results. This issue that other posters have pointed out as well is what pitchers this guys included in his study. Obviously guys who get injured will have way too much to overcome (Prior, Wood).

Here is my final argument, take it or leave it:

Pitchers that show enough ability either in the minors or early in their career are given an opportunity to improve and learn in the majors. It is common that pitchers and hitters struggle in the second year because the rest of the league adjusts. You could see that a little in the stats of the 7 Cy Young winners you posted. Those who have shown enough are given the chance to make adjustments to the league and learn to pitch. Those who have not, do not get that chance and their first year ends up as their best. Most pitchers do fall into the latter category, but I would bet that given the opportunities that better pitchers are awarded, they also would improve from their early career.

[Oriology]

the guy made a study. What he found was that most pitchers get worse every single year. That includes the ones that get injured. Throughout your career you are constantly losing stuff. Most pitchers cannot evolve and it hurts them. King Felix entered the league throwing 102. Lincecum threw 102 in college, but he was throwing only 99 by the time he was a rookie and now struggles to throw 96. Both these guys have masked this by improving in other areas. Most pitchers like Brian Matusz, cannot mask a loss in stuff.

If the point of all of this is to say that the human body usually reaches its athletic peak around age 24-25, then I can't really argue with that. Ostensibly, a player's rookie year is when he is freshest, as the strain of consecutive MLB seasons has not piled up. However, good pitchers, barring injury, tend to find a way to transcend declines in "stuff" through knowing how to change speeds effectively and hitting spots. There are so many dimensions of this issue that its hard to definitively say too much, but I still think its too early to determine whether the O's young pitchers can or cannot compensate for a decline in pitch velocity...only time will tell.

[Enjoy Terror]

The argument that our Orioles players that are beyond 24 years old already are now too old to be good baseball players is utterly ridiculous.

example: Melvin Mora

example: Jeremy Guthrie

[Frobby]

I'm not trying to argue with anyone or look like a jerk. My sole purpose of this argument was to prove that our guys are not young by any stretch of imagination and that we shouldn't expect drastic improvement.

I certainly don't consider you to be acting like a jerk. This is a pretty important and interesting point. I believe the stats show that the number of starts made by pitchers increases each year up to age 27, then declines. But the ones who make it to 27 are a small proportion of the pitchers who got some starts at age 24 or below.

There are 315 pitchers who have seen action this year in the AL. The median age is 27.

25 and younger: 95 pitchers, 23 of whom have started 10+ games this year, 6 of whom have an ERA under 4.00.

26 through 29: 130 pitchers, 31 of whom have started 10+ games this year, 19 of whom have an ERA under 4.00

30 or older: 90 pitchers, 20 of whom have started 10+ games this year, 10 of whom have an ERA under 4.00.

I think one can infer from this that there are a substantial number of pitchers who improve with experience. There are also a lot who don't improve, or who get hurt.

[UnashamedRiver]

I certainly don't consider you to be acting like a jerk. This is a pretty important and interesting point. I believe the stats show that the number of starts made by pitchers increases each year up to age 27, then declines. But the ones who make it to 27 are a small proportion of the pitchers who got some starts at age 24 or below.

There are 315 pitchers who have seen action this year in the AL. The median age is 27.

25 and younger: 95 pitchers, 23 of whom have started 10+ games this year, 6 of whom have an ERA under 4.00.

26 through 29: 130 pitchers, 31 of whom have started 10+ games this year, 19 of whom have an ERA under 4.00

30 or older: 90 pitchers, 20 of whom have started 10+ games this year, 10 of whom have an ERA under 4.00.

I think one can infer from this that there are a substantial number of pitchers who improve with experience. There are also a lot who don't improve, or who get hurt.

27 year olds have the best rate stats. and here is why. Between the ages of 22-25. Pitchers audition in the MLB. Guys like Tillman, Matusz and Britton have pretty much failed. If they continue their poor performance they will be out of the MLB by the time they are age 27. Those 3 guys and many others are dragging down the performance of the younger pitchers. Just about every pitcher who is 27 and older is a permanent hire. All of the terrible pitchers have been filtered out by age 27. This is why pitchers in their late 20s have the best rate stats. You have to be good at that age to still be playing.

[Frobby]

27 year olds have the best rate stats. and here is why. Between the ages of 22-25. Pitchers audition in the MLB. Guys like Tillman, Matusz and Britton have pretty much failed. If they continue their poor performance they will be out of the MLB by the time they are age 27. Those 3 guys and many others are dragging down the performance of the younger pitchers. Just about every pitcher who is 27 and older is a permanent hire. All of the terrible pitchers have been filtered out by age 27. This is why pitchers in their late 20s have the best rate stats. You have to be good at that age to still be playing.

I think your theory is logical, but don't buy your assertion that Tillman, Matusz and Britton have already put themselves in the "failed" category.

[DrOrioles90210]

27 year olds have the best rate stats. and here is why. Between the ages of 22-25. Pitchers audition in the MLB. Guys like Tillman, Matusz and Britton have pretty much failed. If they continue their poor performance they will be out of the MLB by the time they are age 27. Those 3 guys and many others are dragging down the performance of the younger pitchers. Just about every pitcher who is 27 and older is a permanent hire. All of the terrible pitchers have been filtered out by age 27. This is why pitchers in their late 20s have the best rate stats. You have to be good at that age to still be playing.

And I'd bet that most if not all of those guys still pitching at 27 and beyond improved from their rookie season. At this point, you've pretty much lost all credibility by saying that Matusz and Britton have failed.