Jones extension

[Sports Guy]

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/112145-Jones-extension?highlight=jones

Back in July, I started a poll about an extension for Jones.

Only 52 people voted at the time but the consensus was, for those who wanted to extend him, that a 4 or 5 year deal was fine and that an average salary of 10-12 million a year was fine.

So, almost 2 months later, Jones has continued to show progress and is going to have a career year.

Where do you now stand on the Jones extension issue?

[MikeAD]

I am still undecided. If the organization doesn't make great strides forward, then I would trade him. There's no reason to lock up a star player if the team is going to be garbage. He would have way more value now than he would after the extension.

[Frobby]

Here is a post I made back on July 15, around the same time as your poll:

Some Jones Comps

Chris Young, .244/.318/.447 career slash line, 0.3/4.1/3.0 WAR 2009-11; earned $3.45 mm in 2010, $5 mm in 2011; will earn $7 mm and $8.5 mm the next two years and has an $11 mm option for 2014 with a $1.5 mm buyout.

B.J. Upton, .258/.343/.415 career slash line, 1.3/4.3/2.5 WAR 2009-11; earned $3.0 mm in 2010 and $4.8 mm this year; FA in 2013

Curtis Granderson, .269/.343/.491 career slash line, 3.2/2.8/3.5 WAR 2009-11; earned $5.5 mm in 2010 and $8.25 mm in 2011; will earn $10 mm in 2012 and has a $13 mm option for 2013 with a $2 mm buyout.

Adam Jones, .275/.320/.431 career slash line, 2.2/2.7/2.1 WAR 2009-11; earned $3.25 mm in 2011.

Looking at this, I don't think Jones' salary is going to ramp up as quickly as SG suggested in the other thread ($6-7 mm in 2011, $9-10 mm in 2012). I'm thinking more along the lines of $5-5.5 mm in 2012 and $7-8.5 mm in 2013. I agree 4/$32 mm doesn't get it done. $34-36 mm for four years might be in the ballpark, if Jones wants to be in Baltimore.

My opinion hasn't changed much in the last 6 weeks. He shouldn't get more than $40 mm over the next 4 years; he probably should get less. I'd consider a 5th year option at $15 mm or so and a $1-2 mm buyout.

I'd probably shop him early in the offseason before deciding whether to try to do a long term deal.

[Bluerocksfan]

I am in the 5 year 10-12 million dollar range. He probably will end up getting more as I think the organization sees him as a budding superstar, but heres to hoping.

[LookinUp]

I like Adam Jones, but I voted to trade him. In a nutshell, I just value top flight pitching more than I value him as a CFer. That's nothing against him, it's about what this organization needs more.

If we keep him, I will also be pretty happy. A 4-5 year deal would be ideal in that scenario, though a 6 year deal would be fine with me too. He's definitely a talented guy and he's improved despite the gross mess that has existed around him.

[OFFNY]

Here is a post I made back on July 15, around the same time as your poll:

My opinion hasn't changed much in the last 6 weeks. He shouldn't get more than $40 mm over the next 4 years; he probably should get less. I'd consider a 5th year option at $15 mm or so and a $1-2 mm buyout.

I'd probably shop him early in the offseason before deciding whether to try to do a long term deal.

Those are Adams career numbers, but Adam's offensive numbers have steadily improved since he came here as a full-time player in 2008, particularly his batting average and his HR's. His batting averages in the past four seasons including this year are .270, .277, .284, and .292. His HR's have been 9, 19, 19, and 22 (with one month of baseball still left to be played, he could wind up anywhere between 24 and 30 HR for the season). Even his RBI's have gradually improved from 57 in 2008 to 70 in 2009, 69 in 2010 (about the same as 2009), and already 79 and a career-high this season.

[Sports Guy]

Those are Adams, career numbers, but Adam's offensive numbers have steadily improved since he came here as a full-time player in 2008, particularly his batting average and his HR's. His batting averages in the past four seasons including this year are .270, .277, .284, and .292. His HR's have been 9, 19, 19, and 22 (with one month of baseball still left to be played, he could wind up anywhere between 24 and 30 HR for the season). even his RBI's have gradually improved from 57 in 2008 to 70 in 2009, 69 in 2010 (about the same as 2009), and already 79 and a career-high this season.

But you have to ask yourself, how much higher is he realistically going to get?

Again, look at Torii Hunter.

Ultimately, Jones' ceiling is limited because of his plate discipline issues. He could very well have a few years where his OPS is 850 or higher but he will also probably have years where it is 740-770. He is probably a 780-820 OPS guy and that is fine..Its very valuable but how much will that be worth if his defense continues to be in the average at best range?

He will settle into that 2-3.5 WAR range in all likelihood. That is valuable but not irreplaceable.

[Frobby]

Those are Adams career numbers, but Adam's offensive numbers have steadily improved since he came here as a full-time player in 2008, particularly his batting average and his HR's. His batting averages in the past four seasons including this year are .270, .277, .284, and .292. His HR's have been 9, 19, 19, and 22 (with one month of baseball still left to be played, he could wind up anywhere between 24 and 30 HR for the season). Even his RBI's have gradually improved from 57 in 2008 to 70 in 2009, 69 in 2010 (about the same as 2009), and already 79 and a career-high this season.

I don't disagree. Of course, when these other guys signed, they were on the upswing too. Granderson was signed after a year in which he hit .302/.361/.552 with 23 HR, 74 RBI and 26 stolen bases. That was a better overall offensive season than Jones is having, and he was better defensively, too.

My personal opinion is that Jones has steadily improved on offense, but he's about done. I don't think he'll get better from here.

[clapdiddy]

My thought is that I'd like to approach him about an extension. If he is not receptive to it, he should be shopped and dealt this offseason.

[Stotle]

I would trade to Atlanta, Kansas City, San Diego, San Francisco, Philadelphia, etc.

[OFFNY]

But you have to ask yourself, how much higher is he realistically going to get?

Again, look at Torii Hunter.

Ultimately, Jones' ceiling is limited because of his plate discipline issues. He could very well have a few years where his OPS is 850 or higher but he will also probably have years where it is 740-770. He is probably a 780-820 OPS guy and that is fine..Its very valuable but how much will that be worth if his defense continues to be in the average at best range?

He will settle into that 2-3.5 WAR range in all likelihood. That is valuable but not irreplaceable.

That's an excellent point SG, and I don't expect him to keep climbing over the next 3 or 4 years until he bats .340 and hits 40 home runs.

But ... what I do (realistically) expect is for Jones to remain closer to his 2011 numbers than to his 2008 numbers ... which again, would tell a considerably different story than what his current career numbers are showing.

[Sports Guy]

That's an excellent point SG, and I don't expect him to keep climbing over the next 3 or 4 years until he bats .340 and hits 40 home runs.

But ... what I do (realistically) expect is for Jones to remain closer to his 2011 numbers than to his 2008 numbers ... which again, would tell a considerably different story than what his current career numbers are showing.

And that's fine..That puts him in the 3-3.5 WAR range...Making him worth somewhere in the 13-15M a year range.

So, if you believe that he is going to be worth that amount of money, on average and you feel he is worth keeping and not trading, then a 5/55 deal would be good for you.

My problem is that I see him going back and forth between being worth 8-14M or so over the next 5 years and I feel we have much larger needs and that Jones would fetch a huge package of talent.

In fact, I expect the package to bring us back better talent than the Bedard deal did...and it not be that close either.

[Spencer423]

I'd go for a deal around 6/55-60.

[OFFNY]

And that's fine..That puts him in the 3-3.5 WAR range...Making him worth somewhere in the 13-15M a year range.

So, if you believe that he is going to be worth that amount of money, on average and you feel he is worth keeping and not trading, then a 5/55 deal would be good for you.

My problem is that I see him going back and forth between being worth 8-14M or so over the next 5 years and I feel we have much larger needs and that Jones would fetch a huge package of talent.

In fact, I expect the package to bring us back better talent than the Bedard deal did...and it not be that close either.

No, my post had little to do with whether or not I would keep Adam, and how much money I would give him if we do keep him. I was simply pointing out that when evaluating Jones' performance overall, it is important to not just look at his career numbers as one big lump, and to note that his current numbers are considerably better than his numbers were in his first full season in the majors (2008). Kind of like Vladimir Guerrero in reverse. Guerrero's career numbers mean little at this point when it comes to what we expect each time that he comes to the plate, because he is obviously well past his prime. Then, after you have taken all of that into consideration, you can make a decision. And the best move might be to not give him a lot of money for a lot of years ....... but you would be making that decision based on the player that he currently is, not the player that he was when he was a raw rookie in 2008, or a second-year man in 2009.

[Dipper9]

My thought is that I'd like to approach him about an extension. If he is not receptive to it, he should be shopped and dealt this offseason.

This is my thought as well. In the other thread about this same topic today, I stated I would try to extend him early in the offseason, and if extends, great, but if not, trade him. Going into next season, he needs to either be on a long term deal or traded. There is no in between.