Goldstein's article on O's ESPN's Kiss 'em Goodbye

[waroriole]

He's been worth 3.5 WAR or better the last 3 years. Thats about 20M per year in value. So if you pay him 10-12M it will be worth it. As I said before, what are you recommending we do? Forget about trades, you know that isn't happening. Whas's your idea? Do nothing and hope Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman, will some day be better?

So, you want to give him what; 3/30? I'd much rather "do nothing and hope" than give out a contract like that to Edwin Jackson. If you're going to spend on a FA SP, go for Darvish. Spend the 100M it will take.

Why do you say trades won't happen? That is how we got Hunter, who could be a decent #5. Besides, if the guys like Matusz don't turn into quality SP, then it really doesn't matter what FA we sign.

[El Gordo]

So, you want to give him what; 3/30? I'd much rather "do nothing and hope" than give out a contract like that to Edwin Jackson. If you're going to spend on a FA SP, go for Darvish. Spend the 100M it will take.

Why do you say trades won't happen? That is how we got Hunter, who could be a decent #5. Besides, if the guys like Matusz don't turn into quality SP, then it really doesn't matter what FA we sign.

PA is not letting Adam Jones be traded. Jones and Wieters are the players who will bring back the kind pitching we need. Nor will he approve of the 60M+ posting fee it would take to get Darvish. We aren't signing Buehrle or Wilson for less than 100M and PA wouldn't approve of that. Say what you want about Jackson but he is twice as good as Guthrie in terms of WAR this year. Thinking Matusz, Britton, Arrieta and Tillman, will all seriously improve next season is a pipe dream. I choose to stay in the realm of the possible.

[Stotle]

Well E-Jax may not be a world beater but his 11-9 W/L 3.75 ERA 6.9 K/9 and even his 1.42WHIP would sure be welcome this year. Which of our starters have better numbers or project to those numbers next year? His career ave. numbers are middle of the road, but he is young and has a higher upside. Sure it would be great to sign Darvish and trade for more young SP but realistically that's not happening. In the realm of the possible what's your idea of a better option? The last three years he has been a 3.5 WAR or better pitcher. So he's being paid $8M for about $20M worth of production.

Drop him back in the AL East and he isn't putting up the same numbers. Drop him in Camden Yards and he probably isn't putting up the same numbers. Even his "typical" numbers are fringe mid-rotation and often enough back-end caliber.

Bottom line, he's going to give you maybe #3/4 production, with a fair chance of #4/5 production for, what, $10-12MM a year? Pass.

[Can_of_corn]

PA is not letting Adam Jones be traded. Jones and Wieters are the players who will bring back the kind pitching we need. Nor will he approve of the 60M+ posting fee it would take to get Darvish. We aren't signing Buehrle or Wilson for less than 100M and PA wouldn't approve of that. Say what you want about Jackson but he is twice as good as Guthrie in terms of WAR this year. Thinking Matusz, Britton, Arrieta and Tillman, will all seriously improve next season is a pipe dream. I choose to stay in the realm of the possible.

Is this total speculation on your part? If not I would love to see any evidence you have to support this position.

If Jones makes it clear that he isn't going to extend I could see him getting traded. He would certainly bring back more then the draft picks when he walked.

[waroriole]

Is this total speculation on your part? If not I would love to see any evidence you have to support this position.

If Jones makes it clear that he isn't going to extend I could see him getting traded. He would certainly bring back more then the draft picks when he walked.

I was going to ask the same thing, but then I noticed that he kept putting words in my mouth (which I don't agree with) and realized arguing with him is not worth the time. He's taken a JTrea like approach to this.

[El Gordo]

Drop him back in the AL East and he isn't putting up the same numbers. Drop him in Camden Yards and he probably isn't putting up the same numbers. Even his "typical" numbers are fringe mid-rotation and often enough back-end caliber.

Bottom line, he's going to give you maybe #3/4 production, with a fair chance of #4/5 production for, what, $10-12MM a year? Pass.

Jackson has had an ERA+ of 100 or better in all his AL seasons since '08. 100 in TB, 126 in DET '09, and 134 in CHW '10. 108 this season in both CHW and STL. Given that we are not going to trade for SP, which of these FA SP would you prefer to sign?

Erik Bedard (33)

Mark Buehrle (33)

Chris Capuano (33)

Bruce Chen (35)

Bartolo Colon (39)

Aaron Cook (33) - $11MM mutual option with a $500K buyout

Kyle Davies (28)

Doug Davis (36)

Ryan Dempster (35) - $14MM player option, no buyout

Zach Duke (29) - $5.5MM club option with a $750K buyout

Jeff Francis (30)

Freddy Garcia (36)

Jon Garland (32) - $8MM club option with a $500K buyout

Aaron Harang (34) - $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout

Rich Harden (30)

Livan Hernandez (37)

Hisashi Iwakuma (31)

Edwin Jackson (28)

Kenshin Kawakami (37)

Scott Kazmir (28) - $13.5MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout

Hiroki Kuroda (37)

Rodrigo Lopez (36)

Paul Maholm (30) - $9.75MM club option with a $750K buyout

Jason Marquis (33)

Kevin Millwood (37)

Sergio Mitre (31)

Roy Oswalt (34) - $16MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout

Brad Penny (34)

Oliver Perez (30)

Joel Pineiro (33)

C.C. Sabathia (31) - may opt out of remaining four years, $92MM

Javier Vazquez (35)

Adam Wainwright (30) - $10MM vesting option for '12, $12MM for '13

Tim Wakefield (45)

Chien-Ming Wang (32)

Brandon Webb (33)

Dontrelle Willis (30)

C.J. Wilson (31)

Chris Young (33

[brianod]

This is yet another post arguing over which overpriced free-agent we will sign. I've been guilty of this over the last three years and at 50 years of age, have more of an incentive than most to try to win now. However, I remember 1998 and realize the combination of signing free agents on top of a weak farm system is a terrible strategy. We need a massive infusion of money and talent to build from the bottom up. Start over. Solidify the bottom. I don't think there is anything we can spend within the budget of this franchise to make us competitive in the short run. Crucial to this strategy is the hiring of a proven, quality GM. Playing roto gm is fun for all of us but that is putting the cart before the horse. We need a GM and we need that GM to focus on building a second to none scouting and development staff. Free agents can wait imho.

[El Gordo]

Is this total speculation on your part? If not I would love to see any evidence you have to support this position.

If Jones makes it clear that he isn't going to extend I could see him getting traded. He would certainly bring back more then the draft picks when he walked.

Evidence is PA intransigence in trading any franchise type players, and the fact that we didn't trade him at the deadline and signed Hardy instead of trading him. Also we didn't trade Guthrie. With Buck having a greater say in matters, be it GM or defacto GM, it stands to reason that he is going to add what he needs to win while he is under contract, rather than build for the future. I'd be very surprised, but very pleased if we trade Jones for pitching. It ain't happening IMO.

[El Gordo]

This is yet another post arguing over which overpriced free-agent we will sign. I've been guilty of this over the last three years and at 50 years of age, have more of an incentive than most to try to win now. However, I remember 1998 and realize the combination of signing free agents on top of a weak farm system is a terrible strategy. We need a massive infusion of money and talent to build from the bottom up. Start over. Solidify the bottom. I don't think there is anything we can spend within the budget of this franchise to make us competitive in the short run. Crucial to this strategy is the hiring of a proven, quality GM. Playing roto gm is fun for all of us but that is putting the cart before the horse. We need a GM and we need that GM to focus on building a second to none scouting and development staff. Free agents can wait imho.

This is all fine and good, but it has nothing to do with the reality of the 2012 Orioles under PA's ownership. It's a great plan for another Orioles team in some alternative universe.

[Can_of_corn]

Evidence is PA intrab-ngigence in trading any Franchise type playersw and the fact that we didn't trade him at the deadline and signed Hardy instead of trading him. Also we didn't trade Guthrie. With Buck having a greater say in matters, be it GM or defacto GM, it stands to reason that he is going to add what he needs to win while he is under contract, rather than buld fotr the future. I'd be very surprised, but very pleased if we trade Jones for pitching. It ain't happening IMO.

Bedard and Tejada were "Franchise" type players.

Hardy was willing to sign a team friendly extension. If Jones is amendable to a reasonable extension I would agree that he isn't being moved but that is not the scenario under discussion.

No one has any idea how much was offered for Guthrie and moving him then would have placed additional stress on an already imploding rotation.

As for Buck demanding to win now, I am reminded that he was fired in Texas for stating that a rebuild was needed.

You are not convincing me.

[brianod]

This is all fine and good, but it has nothing to do with the reality of the 2012 Orioles under PA's ownership. It's a great plan for another Orioles team in some alternative universe.

I refuse to give up. I'm advocating for the best approach, not the approach that guarantees we will remain uncompetitive for years to come.

[Oriolidae85]

Agreed...Sign Darvish.

Definitely would not mind this kind of move...if the Orioles are ever going to be outlandish again with FA, Darvish is the player this off-season. Aside from this near impossible maneuver (with the current FO), I personally think 3-4 key acquisitions could make this team a .500+ ball club with playoff potential. I'd like to see several of these players in the Orioles roster next year :

Darvish, Wandy Rodriquez, Erik Bedard, Grady Sizemore, Justin Morneau, David Wright and maybe Fielder (anyone on OH who watches a lot of Brewers games a fan of this guy?)

[El Gordo]

I refuse to give up. I'm advocating for the best approach, not the approach that guarantees we will remain uncompetitive for years to come.

It must be nice in that alternative universe. It's jsut as ridiculous to expect PA to go for yet another rebuild, after Am's failed and PA's clock is ticking, as it is to think he is going to open his check book and deal out a bunch of WOW's, that some seem to believe will happen.

[El Gordo]

Bedard and Tejada were "Franchise" type players.

Hardy was willing to sign a team friendly extension. If Jones is amendable to a reasonable extension I would agree that he isn't being moved but that is not the scenario under discussion.

No one has any idea how much was offered for Guthrie and moving him then would have placed additional stress on an already imploding rotation.

As for Buck demanding to win now, I am reminded that he was fired in Texas for stating that a rebuild was needed.

You are not convincing me.

Buck won't have to be fired if he goes for a rebuild, His contract is up in two years, long before we would be competitive. This is Buck's last big chance to get a playoff winner for himself. He isn't going to patiently rebuild. Unless he decides to become the GM and gets an extension on his contract. I have a hard time seeing that happening.

[Can_of_corn]

Buck won't have to be fired if he goes for a rebuild, His contract is up in two years, long before we would be competitive. This is Buck's last big chance to get a playoff winner for himself. He isn't going to patiently rebuild. Unless he decides to become the GM and gets an extension on his contract. I have a hard time seeing that happening.

PA seems happy with Buck why wouldn't they sign an extension? Buck isn't the youngest manager in the game but I have not heard of any health problems, I am not sure why you think the next two seasons are do or die for him.