How can Penn be this bad????

[utvolzac]

While I'm not panicing over his early performance yet, I am at slightly concerned. My best case scenario for him was to come in like a Jered Weaver and dominate, my more realistic scenario was for him to pitch at about a mid 4 era, much like his call up last season. I definitely never expected him to be this bad, hopefully Perlozzo doesn't panic and put RLo back in the rotation.

I was under the belief that Penn would be a fixture in our rotation next year. Now I'm leaning more towards signing a free agent pitcher, incase Penn isn't ready.

[Jenius]

There are plenty of pitchers who have poor performances in very limited innings at age 20/21 and then go on to successful careers. See Mike Hampton, Blue Moon Odom, Kevin Appier, Bruce Hurst, Arthur Rhodes, Duane Ward, Goose Gossage, Reggie Cleveland, and Cal McLish for a few examples.

I've got another one. Let's see if anyone can guess who this is:

Age 21: ERA just over 3.00, WHIP ~1.25, 94:63 K:BB in 150 IP at AA

Age 22: 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 109:59 K:BB in 185 IP at AAA

Looks like a solid if not overwhelming prospect, right?

Well, in his first 23+ IP in the majors, this pitcher allowed 32 H, 13 BB, 25 runs, 5 homers, with only 10 K's (split between his age 21 and 22 seasons).

After another good half-season at AAA, and a solid half-season of relief in the majors, this pitcher was dealt away to another team in one of the most lopsided trades in major league history (hindsight is 20/20, of course). He has gone on to win over 200 games, strike out nearly 3000 hitters, and has 6 all-star appearances and 3 Cy Young runner-ups in a career that may be Hall of Fame bound.

The reason this is so ironic is that the O's are the team that undervalued Curt Schilling and foolishly traded him away. I hope they aren't quick to do the same here.

Caveat: I am NOT suggesting that Penn WILL emulate Schilling's success, simply that it is quite possible.

[Sports Guy]

I am shocked, shocked I say.

OHers overreacting over a few bad performances?

If it were up to many of you, Loewen and Markakis would have been in the minors 2 weeks after they were here.

[Frobby]

I went ot today's game. Penn couldn't throw his curve ball for a strike, and when he threw his change-up, it seeedm the Yankees could tell it was coming.

I think he had 7 days between his last Ottawa start and his first Baltimore start, and then after pitching 1/3 of an inning he went another 6 days between games. I think he has just lost a little bit of command. Keep sending him out there every fifth day, and don't panic.

[Andy_Dufresne]

I am shocked, shocked I say.

OHers overreacting over a few bad performances?

If it were up to many of you, Loewen and Markakis would have been in the minors 2 weeks after they were here.

It cuts both ways. To hear some say it, Loewen and Penn and Bedard are the reincarnation of the 2002 A's of Hudson, Mulder and Zito.

Until they do it on the field, it's always potential. And right now, only Bedard has established himself as a major league pitcher. After season of 6-10 4.59 and 6-8 4.00, he's finally established himself as a good pitcher.

But he hasn't put himself in the class of Santana, Halladay, Vrelander, Weaver and Liriano. Those are the best young pitchers in the AL. And Bedard, Loewen and Penn are discussed among a few around here as having the potential to be in that class. Objectively,I don;t see it.

So, a few overreact negatively to a few dismall performances (9H, 7 runs, 3HRs, 2BB, 1K is dismall). But many have overreacted toa perception of talent.

Let's wait til next year to make a judgemnt. After Bedard, Penn and Loewen have each started 20 games.

[BaltimoreTerp]

It cuts both ways. To hear some say it, Loewen and Penn and Bedard are the reincarnation of the 2002 A's of Hudson, Mulder and Zito.

Until they do it on the field, it's always potential. And right now, only Bedard has established himself as a major league pitcher. After season of 6-10 4.59 and 6-8 4.00, he's finally established himself as a good pitcher.

But he hasn't put himself in the class of Santana, Halladay, Vrelander, Weaver and Liriano. Those are the best young pitchers in the AL. And Bedard, Loewen and Penn are discussed among a few around here as having the potential to be in that class. Objectively,I don;t see it.

So, a few overreact negatively to a few dismall performances (9H, 7 runs, 3HRs, 2BB, 1K is dismall). But many have overreacted toa perception of talent.

Let's wait til next year to make a judgemnt. After Bedard, Penn and Loewen have each started 20 games.

Santana his first season:

 W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+2   3  30   5   0   0   9  0   86.0  102   64   62  11   54   64   2   5   398   0   2  6.49  5.27   81 1.814

Verlander last year:

 W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+0   2   2   2   0   0   0  0   11.3   15    9    9   1    5    7   1   1    54   0   0  7.15  4.27   60 1.765

Liriano last year:

 W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+1   2   6   4   0   0   2  0   23.7   19   15   15   4    7   33   0   0    93   0   0  5.70  4.40   77 1.099

[Moose Milligan]

I haven't seen his starts, but has he shown any good signs?

And really. Can we stop with "Well, so and so had a rough start, but they turned into stars. How old is that argument? What does Schilling, Liriano, Verlander, etc have to do with Penn?

Plenty of starters had a rough start to their careers and plenty of starters had a rough start and never made it. For everyone that pulls up a Schilling, Liriano, or anyone like that, I can show you a Todd Van Poppel, Roger Salkeld, Matt Riley, etc.

I'm not saying which category Penn will end up in, I'm just saying let's give the kid a true shot before determining how he'll end up because of other players in other systems went on to have success. Doesn't mean a damn thing. Neither do the pitchers who were top prospects and never panned out.

[Sports Guy]

It cuts both ways. To hear some say it, Loewen and Penn and Bedard are the reincarnation of the 2002 A's of Hudson, Mulder and Zito.

Until they do it on the field, it's always potential. And right now, only Bedard has established himself as a major league pitcher. After season of 6-10 4.59 and 6-8 4.00, he's finally established himself as a good pitcher.

But he hasn't put himself in the class of Santana, Halladay, Vrelander, Weaver and Liriano. Those are the best young pitchers in the AL. And Bedard, Loewen and Penn are discussed among a few around here as having the potential to be in that class. Objectively,I don;t see it.

So, a few overreact negatively to a few dismall performances (9H, 7 runs, 3HRs, 2BB, 1K is dismall). But many have overreacted toa perception of talent.

Let's wait til next year to make a judgemnt. After Bedard, Penn and Loewen have each started 20 games.

Perception of talent? That's ridiculous.

[Bond007]

Well he's pretty much just throwing fastballs. When major league hitters know what's coming they crush it. He has had no control over his other pitches so everyone is just sittin dead read. That's what i've seen.

[neveradoubt]

How can a guy with as good a track record has he has had be so dreadfully horrible. The guys in the minors still have bats. He makes Chen look like a guy that it is hard to square the ball off of.

Bonderman was 6-19 in 2003. Robertson was 7-16 in 2005

Even Koufax and Johnson had bad beginnings. Once this team gets a 1st baseman, LF and relief pitching over the winter they will improve. The Tigers are a good example of year to year turn arounds.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I haven't seen his starts, but has he shown any good signs?

And really. Can we stop with "Well, so and so had a rough start, but they turned into stars. How old is that argument? What does Schilling, Liriano, Verlander, etc have to do with Penn?

Plenty of starters had a rough start to their careers and plenty of starters had a rough start and never made it. For everyone that pulls up a Schilling, Liriano, or anyone like that, I can show you a Todd Van Poppel, Roger Salkeld, Matt Riley, etc.

I'm not saying which category Penn will end up in, I'm just saying let's give the kid a true shot before determining how he'll end up because of other players in other systems went on to have success. Doesn't mean a damn thing. Neither do the pitchers who were top prospects and never panned out.

That's actually what posting their stats says.

I don't know what he'll do, just like you don't. However, some people, either out of ignorance or for some other reason, want to use a couple starts as a guideline to say whether he'll be good or bad, which is a poor idea, especially when those starts go completely against his track record.

Basically, we need to give him these starts, and see where we are after the season.

[bgfield]

I agree to an extend but I also think that these outings tell us that Penn can be no part of our 2007 rotation, maybe he can be an arm in the bullpen.

IMO there's no reason to limit Penn to the 'pen. Unless we bring up another young starter to replace him. Penn's part of our future and I don't want his role being limited to an inning every other day or so.

[Moose Milligan]

That's actually what posting their stats says.

I don't know what he'll do, just like you don't. However, some people, either out of ignorance or for some other reason, want to use a couple starts as a guideline to say whether he'll be good or bad, which is a poor idea, especially when those starts go completely against his track record.

Basically, we need to give him these starts, and see where we are after the season.

Yep.

It also doesn't make entire sense when he had some good starts for us last year, too.

[mark_beckens]

anyone remember Loewens first 2 starts this season? CHILL OUT he's 21 years old and has had 2 bad starts in a row.

[bgfield]

He's not that bad. It's just he's so overhyped by the people on this board that any kind of struggles are destined to be viewed as complete failures.

That's all.

I don't think this is it at all. Penn has been about as bad as you can be in his first two starts this year. He's giving up lots of hits, and many of those are going for extra bases. The outs that he does manage to get are hit hard.

My fear is that Penn will be one of those pitchers who cannot pitch well if everything isn't working for him. Guys like Loewen, Bedard, and Cabrera, have shown that they can get by with minimal damage even if they don't have their best stuff. I'm worried that Penn is like Chen; if he's off, if he misses his spots by just a couple of inches, it gets smashed. If that is the case, then unless Penn develops impeccable command, I don't think he'll ever be a great pitcher.