Bridwell #10 and Davis #15 in BA 2011 New York-Penn League Top 20 Prospects

[jcarm]

Hey-at least a team that went 20-50 got a couple players on the list.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2012/2612396.html

[stef]

Thanks. I'd be interested to know how the rest of the eastern division did.

[jcarm]

Thanks. I'd be interested to know how the rest of the eastern division did.

Well, the Red Sox had one player(#2 Garin Cecchini), and the Rays had only one player(#3 Parker Markell). The Yankees, on the other hand had 5 players-#'s 1,6,8,14 and 19. The Blue Jays do not have a team in the league.

[hoosiers]

Well, the Red Sox had one player(#2 Garin Cecchini), and the Rays had only one player(#3 Parker Markell). The Yankees, on the other hand had 5 players-#'s 1,6,8,14 and 19. The Blue Jays do not have a team in the league.

That's interesting because we were about 100 times that the BoSox have about SIX Bridwell's for every one of ours.

I imagine these lists are a bit unusual in that a lot of guys may not have signed quickly enough to make these lists (and we have several of those guys ourselves), and several here have posted not to read too much into these lists over the years, but it sure is nicer to have guys on these lists than to have as few guys on these lists the past few years.

[Frobby]

2 in the GCL, and 2 in the NY-P? I'll gladly take it. It's been years since we had 4 top-20 guys in the lower minors. I'm pretty shocked that Davis made the list.

[Tony-OH]

2 in the GCL, and 2 in the NY-P? I'll gladly take it. It's been years since we had 4 top-20 guys in the lower minors. I'm pretty shocked that Davis made the list.

Not me. He might be the 4th best hitting prospect behind Machado, Schoop, and Hoes when it comes to potential.

[Lucky Jim]

Not me. He might be the 4th best hitting prospect behind Machado, Schoop, and Hoes when it comes to potential.

And with 80 speed, that's saying something. Essentially - and you know I hate to do this - is his top-side a healthy Rocco Baldelli?

[Stotle]

2 in the GCL, and 2 in the NY-P? I'll gladly take it. It's been years since we had 4 top-20 guys in the lower minors. I'm pretty shocked that Davis made the list.

I think he was pretty clearly a top 20 O's prospect entering the year (I think I ended up dropping him in around 15 or 16) and he clearly did plenty this year to earn consideration for this BA list. That said, it was a slightly down year in the NY-Penn, so I think the that helped Davis land on this list despite limited upside.

[Stotle]

And with 80 speed, that's saying something. Essentially - and you know I hate to do this - is his top-side a healthy Rocco Baldelli?

Top-side for Davis a top 5 prospect in all of baseball? I would say that is highly unlikely (I would be surprised if he ever cracks a top 100 list, but of course he's still young in development). I'd bet a shiny nickel he doesn't come close to Baldelli's power potential.

[Lucky Jim]

Top-side for Davis a top 5 prospect in all of baseball? I would say that is highly unlikely (I would be surprised if he ever cracks a top 100 list, but of course he's still young in development). I'd bet a shiny nickel he doesn't come close to Baldelli's power potential.

Yes. Is his ceiling something like Rocco Baldelli.

Let's establish a few things: first, I'm not comparing Davis to a 2002 Baldelli; second, that Baldelli was somewhat over-rated as a prospect.

His power was solid, his patience pretty poor. He was toolsy, and scouts were enamored with that. For his MiLB career, he slashed .276/.326/.432. I'm not asking if Davis's top-side a .330/.370/.520 guy (the break out year that made Baldelli a top-5 prospect, I'm guessing), I'm asking if his ceiling is: a toolsy guys w/ + speed and moderate pop. In other words, a .280/.330/.420 kind of guy who can do some things with his feet and just enough power to keep you honest. Because, in the end, that's sort-of what Baldelli turned out to be (90 games in 2006 aside).*

*Understandably, if you buy into the narrative that Baldelli was destined for more but was dragged down by his injuries, you're free to toss this comparison out. I don't really buy into that narrative. Nor was I ever much of a Baldelli fan. But, in terms of skill-set, Davis appears to be somewhat similar, if much more raw.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB

2000 18 Prince APPY Rk TBD 60 251 232 33 50 9 2 3 25 11 3 12 56 .216 .269 .310 .579 72 3 5 2 0 0

2001 19 Char SC SALL A TBD 113 451 406 58 101 23 6 8 55 25 9 23 89 .249 .303 .394 .697 160 7 11 5 6 0

[Frobby]

Not me. He might be the 4th best hitting prospect behind Machado, Schoop, and Hoes when it comes to potential.

Hmmm, very interesting. I guess I need to pay more attention to him next season. Next stop, Delmarva?

[Tony-OH]

Hmmm, very interesting. I guess I need to pay more attention to him next season. Next stop, Delmarva?

Yes, you have to imagine he was at least start at Delmarva. If Stockstill is back (I don't have any information that says he will or will not be back) he could find his way to Frederick if he starts off hot. Davis needs to get a lot stronger and put on some muscle. When that happens, I think we're looking at a kid who could be the first true five tool guy in the system. I like him a lot even though he's got a long way to go.

[Stotle]

Yes. Is his ceiling something like Rocco Baldelli.

Let's establish a few things: first, I'm not comparing Davis to a 2002 Baldelli; second, that Baldelli was somewhat over-rated as a prospect.

His power was solid, his patience pretty poor. He was toolsy, and scouts were enamored with that. For his MiLB career, he slashed .276/.326/.432. I'm not asking if Davis's top-side a .330/.370/.520 guy (the break out year that made Baldelli a top-5 prospect, I'm guessing), I'm asking if his ceiling is: a toolsy guys w/ + speed and moderate pop. In other words, a .280/.330/.420 kind of guy who can do some things with his feet and just enough power to keep you honest. Because, in the end, that's sort-of what Baldelli turned out to be (90 games in 2006 aside).*

*Understandably, if you buy into the narrative that Baldelli was destined for more but was dragged down by his injuries, you're free to toss this comparison out. I don't really buy into that narrative. Nor was I ever much of a Baldelli fan. But, in terms of skill-set, Davis appears to be somewhat similar, if much more raw.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB

2000 18 Prince APPY Rk TBD 60 251 232 33 50 9 2 3 25 11 3 12 56 .216 .269 .310 .579 72 3 5 2 0 0

2001 19 Char SC SALL A TBD 113 451 406 58 101 23 6 8 55 25 9 23 89 .249 .303 .394 .697 160 7 11 5 6 0

The comp is just not a good one in my opinion (nor is it a good idea to try and make comps by lining up stat lines from rookie/LoA ball). There is a reason that as a teenager Baldelli was drafted 6th overall and Davis was not. Now, should Davis have lasted 50 rounds? Of course not. But these are two very different talents at this stage, that project to very different ceilings.

The most obvious difference is that Baldelli was more physical at the same age and had more physical projection. He also had more natural whip in his bat, though Davis swings it pretty well, too. Baldelli was further ahead in baseball development, as well. What odds would you give Davis for starting for a ML club at age 20 and putting up a league average OPS?

I mean, sure, both are fast outfielders. But I don't see that many similarities in profile. From everything I have seen, Davis is going to be brought along as a lead-off type while Baldelli was a true potential middle of the order bat (and performed like that for a brief period as a MLer). Davis is faster; Baldelli was a better defender at the same stage (better reads, better jumps).

As far as Baldelli's "narrative", the kid's career was essentially done at age 24. I would consider that sidetracked by injury.

[Lucky Jim]

The comp is just not a good one in my opinion (nor is it a good idea to try and make comps by lining up stat lines from rookie/LoA ball). There is a reason that as a teenager Baldelli was drafted 6th overall and Davis was not. Now, should Davis have lasted 50 rounds? Of course not. But these are two very different talents at this stage, that project to very different ceilings.

The most obvious difference is that Baldelli was more physical at the same age and had more physical projection. He also had more natural whip in his bat, though Davis swings it pretty well, too. Baldelli was further ahead in baseball development, as well. What odds would you give Davis for starting for a ML club at age 20 and putting up a league average OPS?

I mean, sure, both are fast outfielders. But I don't see that many similarities in profile. From everything I have seen, Davis is going to be brought along as a lead-off type while Baldelli was a true potential middle of the order bat (and performed like that for a brief period as a MLer). Davis is faster; Baldelli was a better defender at the same stage (better reads, better jumps).

As far as Baldelli's "narrative", the kid's career was essentially done at age 24. I would consider that sidetracked by injury.

I don't put any odds on Davis getting to the ML club at 20 and putting up a league average OBP. Of course, I put the odds of Baldelli doing it at about 0%, because he debuted at 21.5 years old, in 2003.

You believe Baldelli was a true MOO bat, and that's great. That wasn't really my read - he had nowhere close to the patience to be one, and though his historical comps point to possible huge power upside (Beltran) they also point to the possibility of only moderate power output (say, Gary Maddox). That said, I didn't follow prospects back then, I'm both ignorant to, and immune from, the hype surrounding Baldelli.

Perhaps I shouldn't toss aside "now" status when making the comparison. I acknowledge that Davis is not as developed physically and skill-wise as Baldelli was at the same time. He has farther to go to reach the peak (and a lower probability of getting there). That's why I didn't say "is Davis a comparable prospect to Baldelli." I said, is Davis's ceiling comparable to Baldelli. By this, I meant the Baldelli we largely knew (of the tools and .770 OPS). I should have left "healthy" out of it.

I get that you don't see a comparison. I'm not even sure about it, which is why I asked. But I'm also not quite willing to give up on the idea of a high ceiling for Davis. He seems like he's all projection at this point - which is somewhat confirmed by Tony's take. If he becomes a true five-tool talent, then what's his upside? And how far below Baldelli is that?

(BTW, the comp wasn't "lined-up" by low-level stats. I was pointing out the single-year uptick in Baldelli's production. I know we like to think of spikes as being indicators of true-talent level, and build projections off of them. And they're valid inputs, to be sure. But sometimes we may rely too heavily on them, as well as some construction of "progress" or "development" that is little more than a narrative of our own construction.)

[Tony-OH]

And with 80 speed, that's saying something. Essentially - and you know I hate to do this - is his top-side a healthy Rocco Baldelli?

Baldelli was such a natural talent that it's tough to ever compare a free agent signee, even one that was given 3rd round money, to him. It's too early for a comp although one scout that I know favored him to Peter Bourjos. I'd like to see how he does against Sally League pitchers and how he starts to fill out before giving him a comp. For an 80 runner, he does not hit like Angle or Hudson at all. There is some pop in that bat, but how much it continues to develop as he fills out will be the question.

I don't know where he's going to end up in the top prospects list but I have to imagine he's going to make the top 15, and maybe even the top 10.