Second wild card team?

[scOtt]

Perhaps. I was thinking about it like a normal distribution curve where teams would be grouped around the median and as one nears the median the teams on each point increase.

Yeah, I could see that making it a little more likely. Don't you love stats.

[Spy Fox]

Question: Is adding a second wild card going to add or subtract excitement from the last few days of the pennant race?

Clearly, depending on the circumstances of a given year's standings, a second wild card could either create an additional race for a playoff spot or marginalize the importance of a close two-team race. I've had a hard time deciding whether I support a second wild card team so I looked at the 17 year history of the MLB wild card to imagine what those playoff races would have been like if there were two wild card spots instead of one. This provides a theoretical glance at which setup provides more excitement.

This examination was based only on the intensity of the last few days of the playoff chase, so I defined the terms as such:

-A race in which the second place wild card team was closer in standings to the wild card leader than to those teams behind them would have been more suspenseful with one wild card.

-A race in which the second place wild card team was closer in standings to those teams behind them than to the wild card leader would have been more suspenseful with two wild cards.

-A race in which the second place wild card team was the same distance in standings from the wild card leader and those teams behind them would have been similarly suspenseful regardless of the amount of wild cards.

In some cases the division races were considered as well-- there were a few cases where a second wild card would have made the wild-card race marginally more interesting but would have deflated the excitement in division races as a result. These were considered the third type, neutral cases.

The result? In 17 seasons, 34 wild card races, an analysis of MLB final standings produced the following:

More Suspenseful with One WC: 15

More Suspenseful with Two WC: 15

Similar Levels of Suspense: 4

On paper, it appears that the number of wild cards has little effect on the excitement of the season's final days.

Some Examples

*1996 AL: An extreme case in which a second wild card would have increased excitement. The Orioles won the wild card by three wins. Seattle, Chicago, and Boston all finished tied, 3 wins behind Baltimore. This would have certainly created an exciting set of games in the last two-three days, as it would have been a tight three-way race between those teams for the final playoff spot. (I use the word 'wins' instead of 'games' in this case since Seattle, being playoff eliminated, never played their 162nd game.)

*2003 NL: Another extreme case in support of a second wild card. The Marlins won the wild card by four games, but six teams would have been within four games for the second wild card. The Astros, Phillies, Cardinalss, Dodgers, Expos, and Diamondbacks all finished between 83 and 87 wins. Not all of those teams would have still been in it in the last series of the season, but a six-team race for the wild card with a week to play would be a thrilling finale.

*2011 AL, 2011 NL: Obviously the most extreme case in which a second wild card would have diminished the drama of the season's end. The historic events of last week would have been marginalized if all four teams (Rays, Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals) were guaranteed to play an elimination playoff.

There are many other factors that should go into the decision, but this convinced me that over an extended time period the excitement of playoff races would not be affected much in either direction by the addition of a second wild card.

Side Note: If you are dedicated to having the best teams in the playoffs, there have been a few seasons in which a play-in game or best two-of-three wild card series might have resulted in a much less deserving team reaching the division series if there was a surprising result. In 1997 the Yankees won the wild card by 12 games in a top-heavy American League in which only 5 of 14 teams were .500 or above. In 2001 the Athletics won 102 games, but grabbed only the wild card because of the Mariners' record setting season, and would have faced the 85 win Twins in a play-in series.

[Stotle]

Question: Is adding a second wild card going to add or subtract excitement from the last few days of the pennant race?

Clearly, depending on the circumstances of a given year's standings, a second wild card could either create an additional race for a playoff spot or marginalize the importance of a close two-team race. I've had a hard time deciding whether I support a second wild card team so I looked at the 17 year history of the MLB wild card to imagine what those playoff races would have been like if there were two wild card spots instead of one. This provides a theoretical glance at which setup provides more excitement.

This examination was based only on the intensity of the last few days of the playoff chase, so I defined the terms as such:

-A race in which the second place wild card team was closer in standings to the wild card leader than to those teams behind them would have been more suspenseful with one wild card.

-A race in which the second place wild card team was closer in standings to those teams behind them than to the wild card leader would have been more suspenseful with two wild cards.

-A race in which the second place wild card team was the same distance in standings from the wild card leader and those teams behind them would have been similarly suspenseful regardless of the amount of wild cards.

In some cases the division races were considered as well-- there were a few cases where a second wild card would have made the wild-card race marginally more interesting but would have deflated the excitement in division races as a result. These were considered the third type, neutral cases.

The result? In 17 seasons, 34 wild card races, an analysis of MLB final standings produced the following:

More Suspenseful with One WC: 15

More Suspenseful with Two WC: 15

Similar Levels of Suspense: 4

On paper, it appears that the number of wild cards has little affect on the excitement of the season's final days.

Some Examples

*1996 AL: An extreme case in which a second wild card would have increased excitement. The Orioles won the wild card by three wins. Seattle, Chicago, and Boston all finished tied, 3 wins behind Baltimore. This would have certainly created an exciting set of games in the last two-three days, as it would have been a tight three-way race between those teams for the final playoff spot. (I use the word 'wins' instead of 'games' in this case since Seattle, being playoff eliminated, never played their 162nd game.)

*2003 NL: Another extreme case in support of a second wild card. The Marlins won the wild card by four games, but six teams would have been within four games for the second wild card. The Astros, Phillies, Cardinalss, Dodgers, Expos, and Diamondbacks all finished between 83 and 87 wins. Not all of those teams would have still been in it in the last series of the season, but a six-team race for the wild card with a week to play would be a thrilling finale.

*2011 AL, 2011 NL: Obviously the most extreme case in which a second wild card would have diminished the drama of the season's end. The historic events of last week would have been marginalized if all four teams (Rays, Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals) were guaranteed to play an elimination playoff.

There are many other factors that should go into the decision, but this convinced me that over an extended time period the excitement of playoff races would not be affected much in either direction by the addition of a second wild card.

Side Note: If you are dedicated to having the best teams in the playoffs, there have been a few seasons in which a play-in game or best two-of-three wild card series might have resulted in a much less deserving team reaching the division series if there was a surprising result. In 1997 the Yankees won the wild card by 12 games in a top-heavy American League in which only 5 of 14 teams were .500 or above. In 2001 the Athletics won 102 games, but grabbed only the wild card because of the Mariners' record setting season, and would have faced the 85 win Twins in a play-in series.

It also creates added races between 2nd place teams and the division winners, since the division winner doesn't need to go through the play-in game. So, a 2nd place team may already be guaranteed a playoff spot w/the wild card, but be within striking distance of 1st place as well. Adding the 2nd wildcard spot and play-in game makes that race for the division meaningful, in addition to potentially adding a race for a 2nd wildcard spot.

[Spy Fox]

It also creates added races between 2nd place teams and the division winners, since the division winner doesn't need to go through the play-in game. So, a 2nd place team may already be guaranteed a playoff spot w/the wild card, but be within striking distance of 1st place as well. Adding the 2nd wildcard spot and play-in game makes that race for the division meaningful, in addition to potentially adding a race for a 2nd wildcard spot.

Ah, yes you are right, I forgot the benefits of a bye.

Those division races and the advantage of skipping the play-in round would be relevant sources of excitement almost every September. Some cases from my notes where this might have created an interesting race:

*2004 AL West, in which the Angels, Rangers, and Athletics all finished within 3 games of each other. This could have come down to the wire with Texas hoping to pass LA for 1st in the division and Oakland hoping to pass Texas for the 2nd wild card.

*2007 NL. There were tons of races that came down to the closing weekend this year. The Phillies beat the Mets by just a game, and on game 162 the Mets were also just a game behind the WC tied Rockies and Padres. The After 162 games, the Diamondbacks, Padres and Rockies were all within 1 game. The extra wild card would have added another level of intrigue to that fray of five similarly performing teams.

*The 1st place wild card team was only 1 game away from winning their division nine times. AL in 2000, 2005, 2006 and 2010 and NL in 1995, 1996, 2000, 2001 and 2006.

[orayole]

I'm in favor of more playoff spots however its done. It brings more excitement to more cities. The dramatic races at the end of the season may not increase but the amount of people that care will most definitely increase since it's more likely their team is involved.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I'm in favor of more playoff spots however its done. It brings more excitement to more cities. The dramatic races at the end of the season may not increase but the amount of people that care will most definitely increase since it's more likely their team is involved.

How many?