Adrain Beltre Hall of Famer?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I might have laughed about this idea a few years ago but the more I look at Adrian Beltre I think he'll be a Hall of Famer. For one, assuming reasonable health, I think he'll attain (or come very close to) 3,000 hits for his career. For another, I think his defensive reputation along with an incredibly consistent and superior track record of defensive stats will be unparalleled. I do believe Beltre's mediocre offensive numbers will be recognized as getting punished in SAFECO and to a lesser extent with LA. I think he'll have several outstanding years with Texas. If he had not missed more than a month this year his numbers would have been incredible. They were still outstanding. Of course age and injuries can creep up quickly sometimes, but I think Beltre has a good shot and will be getting some payback for those SAFECO years.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Beltre's numbers.

There are two problems.

First, third basemen as a group are underrepresented in the Hall of Fame. Because of the duality of the position, being viewed as neither defense- or offense-first compared to others (basically, both), only those who excel to the extremes tend to get recognized. Brooks Robinson on defense, for example, or Wade Boggs on offense. Someone in the Mike Schmidt mold of excelling in both is rare. Thus, those who have offensive or defensive reputations that would put them in elsewhere on the diamond are overlooked.

Second, though really almost 1A, his closest BBRef comp both through age 31 and for every season but two of his career is...Ron Santo. And he was a better offensive player.

Since Beltre could play almost another decade and seems to have a decent shot at 3,000 hits and 500 homers, with his defensive reputation he could be viewed as a Schmidt-like guy when all is said and done. However, I don't know if he gets in without coming very close or surpassing those milestones.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Beltre's numbers.

There are two problems.

First, third basemen as a group are underrepresented in the Hall of Fame. Because of the duality of the position, being viewed as neither defense- or offense-first compared to others (basically, both), only those who excel to the extremes tend to get recognized. Brooks Robinson on defense, for example, or Wade Boggs on offense. Someone in the Mike Schmidt mold of excelling in both is rare. Thus, those who have offensive or defensive reputations that would put them in elsewhere on the diamond are overlooked.

Second, though really almost 1A, his closest BBRef comp both through age 31 and for every season but two of his career is...Ron Santo. And he was a better offensive player.

Since Beltre could play almost another decade and seems to have a decent shot at 3,000 hits and 500 homers, with his defensive reputation he could be viewed as a Schmidt-like guy when all is said and done. However, I don't know if he gets in without coming very close or surpassing those milestones.

Nice post, Thanks. I definitely think Santo should be a Hall of Famer. I don't think Beltre can make 500 Homeruns (maybe), but I do think he has a decent shot at that 3,000 hit mark. Questions about advanced defensive stats noted, but I do think his incredible numbers in that area will help make his overall case and enhance his defensive reputation.

[GoldGlove21]

There is a major issue with Beltre IMO. 3000 is a huge milestone, probably held in higher regard than 500 homeruns these days when all things are considered. Biggio and Palmeiro are not in the HOF. According to the time, how many great seasons has Beltre had thus far? He was AWESOME in 2004 and finished second in the MVP voting. He was also very good in 2010 and 2011. He has a reputation as a glove guy, but he has only won 2 GG's. Schmidt was great in 74'-77', 79'-84' and 86'-87'. He won 11 GG's and the MVP three times. He hit 35 or more homeruns in 11 seasons on his way to 548. Schmidt is considered to be the best fielding-hitting third base combination in the history of the game. I like Beltre a lot, but he couldn't hold Schmidt's cleats.

I do not think that Beltre gets to 3000 hits because I think that Beltre is older than 32. He has only had 5 seasons above an .800 OPS and only two seasons above .900. Beltre has played 14 seasons at a demanding position and I expect that we will see his range start to decline as he hits his mid thirties. He might be a guy that turns into a full time DH in the next 3 seasons. We have seen that the Hall does not appreciate players who added to their stats by hitting and not fielding. Beltre ends up in the Hall of Very Good unless he gets to 3000 hits. I think any player who gets to 3000 hits and is not linked to PED's gets in. A guy who hits 500 homeruns and misses 3000 is not as likely to get in IMO. I think Biggio gets in, but Palmeiro becomes the guy who pays an expensive price for his past.