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If the Orioles pursue CJ Wilson....


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Wilson looks intriguing but with Darvish, we just have to bid the highest posting fee and we get exclusive negotiating rights. If he doesn't want to come to Baltimore, he can opt to stay in Japan. I believe the posting fee does not have to be paid or is refunded in the event that a player chooses not to sign with the team that won the bid, am I correct?
Right you have to be willing to part with the posting fee, but if he doesn't sign, you can always spend it elsewhere.
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@Buster_ESPN Buster Olney

Just talked to agent (not Boras)about Wilson FA. Says with a really bad October could get 5/60-65m. With a good Oct., 5-6/$85-100m.

Discuss what you think it would take to get him all the same. However, does anyone think Pete Angelos is going to pony up $10M-$13M let alone $17M-$20M a year for a pitcher?

"For example, I was at a meeting in Milwaukee and everyone was talking about the most recent deal the Astros made giving [pitcher Roy] Oswalt $73 million for five years, $14.5 million a year. (chuckle) That is lunacy. He's going to pitch every fifth day. A good ballplayer and all that, but $14.5.million a year…now come on. " - Peter Angelos.

I don't care who the GM is, they have to run a contract of that magnitude by Angelos. In fact, the GM that brings him such a contract proposal, may be a short-term one.

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Discuss what you think it would take to get him all the same. However, does anyone think Pete Angelos is going to pony up $10M-$13M let alone $17M-$20M a year for a pitcher?

"For example, I was at a meeting in Milwaukee and everyone was talking about the most recent deal the Astros made giving [pitcher Roy] Oswalt $73 million for five years, $14.5 million a year. (chuckle) That is lunacy. He's going to pitch every fifth day. A good ballplayer and all that, but $14.5.million a year…now come on. " - Peter Angelos.

I don't care who the GM is, they have to run a contract of that magnitude by Angelos. In fact, the GM that brings him such a contract proposal, may be a short-term one.

I have no doubts that he would pony up 10-13M....He was willing to give Pavano and Jason Schmidt that.

But 17 or more? I doubt that, especially over 5+ years.

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If I'm going 115M on Wilson, I'm bidding on Darvish first.

I just don't like the market for top-shelf Japanese pitchers, as I've said before:

Absolutely agree. I think there's value to be found. I think I may be more wrapped up in the philosophical/analytical side of this - how do we project performance and how do we assess risk across similar-yet-signficantly-different contexts.

I mean, we know that some Nippon League pitchers can succeed in the U.S. But hasn't the real value been in guys like Uehara (sort-of/health), Saito and Takahashi?

It seems to me that the system promotes huge upfront costs for what is deemed "exceptional" talent - but the returns on that cost have generally been disappointing at best. Igawa, Matsuzaka, and Ishii cost $88m in posting fees alone and combined put up under 11 WAR. That's $8m a win w/o even taking into account salary. On the other hand, guys like Otsuka, Takahashi, Saito and Uehara - w/ more limited expecation and *much* more limited expenditure - provided legitimate MLB value.

What I'm getting at is maybe the Nippon League is a great resource - it's just not a great resource for elite pitching talent. Someone will strike gold someday, but the posting fees are remarkably prohibitive given the inherent risk in translating elite performance.

(Which is, essentially, to say that I think developing pitching talent - and trading for it - is the key. I like what I see in the DSL and GCL right now - it seems like they're focused on really projectable guys who don't make scouting alarms go off - and thus demand seven-figure bonuses. And I'm starting to really like what I see out of our domestic pitchers in the low minors. We need more impact arms, but Dylan Bundy sure does help with that. That's not to say I'm satisfied. I think we need to be much better about hording draft picks, too.)

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/113737-Fielder-or-Darvish?p=2539459&highlight=darvish#post2539459

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There's a lot to like about Wilson. But I generally don't like giving out five year contracts to pitchers, but even if I did, CJ Wilson isn't the kind of guy I'd be inclined to give it to.
Yea, I hate 5 year deals for pitchers as well but if its a reasonable number, I might do it.

For example, I said I would offer him 4/75...but if it took 5/82.5 to get him, I would do it because I would basically be paying 7.5M for one year to get him here....I could live with that even though I think its a slight overpay.

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I know this wasn't the question asked, but I'd feel a whole heck of a lot better dumping 100 million into Sabathia if he opted out over Wilson. If Sabathia isn't available, I'd probably max out my offer at 5/95. Why? Because I really want to say 5/85, but if the difference is 10 million, or 2 million more per year... the Orioles (and I, for the purposes of this question) would need to make that jump in order to get the player.

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I have no doubts that he would pony up 10-13M....He was willing to give Pavano and Jason Schmidt that.

But 17 or more? I doubt that, especially over 5+ years.

Perhaps Buck could change his mind? Remember Andy MacPhail hated giving those contracts too.

If Buck tells him we have to spend this kind of money to get good pitching, and he respects Buck then I think you could see him change.

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Discuss what you think it would take to get him all the same. However, does anyone think Pete Angelos is going to pony up $10M-$13M let alone $17M-$20M a year for a pitcher?

"For example, I was at a meeting in Milwaukee and everyone was talking about the most recent deal the Astros made giving [pitcher Roy] Oswalt $73 million for five years, $14.5 million a year. (chuckle) That is lunacy. He's going to pitch every fifth day. A good ballplayer and all that, but $14.5.million a year…now come on. " - Peter Angelos.

I don't care who the GM is, they have to run a contract of that magnitude by Angelos. In fact, the GM that brings him such a contract proposal, may be a short-term one.

Maybe the abysmal pitching this team has had over the last several years will make Angelos change his mind about the value of having a good starter. Not likely, but this team has really suffered from the lack of a TOR pitcher.

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...they will fail in landing him.

This was a "complete the sentence" exercise, right?

Ultimately, that's what will happen.

BTW, totally off topic but how hopping Wisconsin right now(bet that's a question you thought you would never be asked) with the Packers, Brewers and Badgers?

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