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If the Orioles pursue CJ Wilson....


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Perhaps Buck could change his mind? Remember Andy MacPhail hated giving those contracts too.

If Buck tells him we have to spend this kind of money to get good pitching, and he respects Buck then I think you could see him change.

PA hated giving those deals out long before AM got here.
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Ultimately, that's what will happen.

BTW, totally off topic but how hoping Wisconsin right now with the Packers, Brewers and Badgers?

Pretty fun, to be honest. I work at what most would consider to be the largest/stuffiest law firm in the city and we were in jeans/sports apparel (including jerseys) on Fridays from last November through the superbowl, and again now since August. It's crazy, EVERYONE is wearing some form of Wisconsin sports team clothing wherever you go. I have a briefcase with my MLB team's logo on it (not Milwaukee) and get some ribbing, to say the least. :)

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One thing I would keep in the back of my mind going into the offseason...

If TEX seems uninterested in signing CJ to an extension, and have been talking about who they are going to sign to replace him, shouldn't you be asking why is a GM as good as Daniels letting him walk? It's not a pure question of the money, because they are talking about spending more to go after CC, but if they are on the verge of another WS with him at the top of the rotation, and he'd be cheaper than CC, why are they going to take the draft picks and move right on along?

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BTW, I also agree that Darvish would be the better target.

He is #1 on my offseason list.

I think with the injury issues with Koji and the downfall of DiceK, that would be the last place the Orioles would put their money.

I think Wilson is going to be their top target.

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1. How does that compare to the average return on domestic FA pitching?

2. Are there sample size issues to consider?

My guess is that it's worse as a return, but that both are bad. Which is at the root of my take on FA pitching as stated in another thread:

I think it's pretty clear that the biggest need for the O's right now is pitching: it's the source of radical instability on the team. But that doesn't mean that it's necessarily the place to look for long-term, high-cost investment (it doesn't mean it's not, either). The issue, as always, is uncertainty, and we need to do a better job of hedging against the uncertainty inherent in pitching prospects. What the O's need most, short-term, are arms that can be relied on for innings and solid performance. And they should be willing to over-pay slightly to get it.

I would probably be looking at older pitchers on shorter-term deals. No type-As. A quick eyeball means (as a type, rather than specifically): Garland (as much as I've argued against him in the past), Hiroki Kuroda (provided his age creates a discount), Kawakami (at a steep discount), Chien Ming Wang and Aaron Harang (depending on price). I'd try to stay at three-year deals and under.

From there, you hope for a progression to near-elite status by Britton, a regression to his talent-norm from Matusz (200 IP, < 4.50 ERA), and a solid back-end performance from Arrieta. And pray that someone else steps up (Tillman, B. Bundy, etc.).

That's how I'd approach pitching, even agreeing that it's a "necessity."

As for sample size, sure, there's some sample-size issues. But we should note that I've identified only uncertainty in translating performance across contexts. Sample-size may be a fine critique when one is arguing for certainty - but here, everything suffers from sample-size issues. I'm only pointing out that buying into assumed translations has proven really tricky so far, and resulted in enormous inefficiencies. If there's non-sample-problematized data that supports some certainty in translating elite performance across contexts, then we'd be better off.

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Perhaps Buck could change his mind? Remember Andy MacPhail hated giving those contracts too.

If Buck tells him we have to spend this kind of money to get good pitching, and he respects Buck then I think you could see him change.

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I don't think that's going to happen. AM was willing to put an offer out there for Teixera, remember. He did get outbid for Martinez, but neither of these guys wanted to come to Baltimore. When it comes to pitching, we haven't really been in a position to bring in any big name FAs but if one was had at the right price, then I don't see why AM wouldn't have been willing to go for it.

The problem is Angeles, and like SG said, I could see him going into the 12-13 per year range but when you get above that I think Angelos doesn't see how you can make money off that. Just looks like Albert Belle and Scott Erickson.

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One thing I would keep in the back of my mind going into the offseason...

If TEX seems uninterested in signing CJ to an extension, and have been talking about who they are going to sign to replace him, shouldn't you be asking why is a GM as good as Daniels letting him walk? It's not a pure question of the money, because they are talking about spending more to go after CC, but if they are on the verge of another WS with him at the top of the rotation, and he'd be cheaper than CC, why are they going to take the draft picks and move right on along?

Yea, I brought this up earlier in the thread. It definitely makes you wonder.

Is it possible that CJ just doesn't want to be in Texas anymore and the Rangers know it already?

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I just don't like the market for top-shelf Japanese pitchers, as I've said before:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/113737-Fielder-or-Darvish?p=2539459&highlight=darvish#post2539459

Not all Japanes pitchers are the same, especially the half Iranian ones. I just think Darvish is just so extraordinary he is worth the gamble. Comparisons to Duce-K are not apt IMO. His biggest problem besides the usual cultural things, will be lowering his pitch count, not switching to the 5 day cycle. Japanese pitchers are encouraged to throw more pitches and go for the K's. Even averaging 120+ P's per game Darvish averages 7+IP per game. If Nolan Ryan is serious about him I would be too.
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<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/1ytCEuuW2_A" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I don't think that's going to happen. AM was willing to put an offer out there for Teixera, remember. He did get outbid for Martinez, but neither of these guys wanted to come to Baltimore. When it comes to pitching, we haven't really been in a position to bring in any big name FAs but if one was had at the right price, then I don't see why AM wouldn't have been willing to go for it.

The problem is Angeles, and like SG said, I could see him going into the 12-13 per year range but when you get above that I think Angelos doesn't see how you can make money off that. Just looks like Albert Belle and Scott Erickson.

First of all, it's the GM's job to convince players to come to Baltimore and MacPhail was a lousy salesman.

PGA likely was not asked to spend on a top arm because MacPhail had no intention of buying pitching either.

Changing his advisor, telling him that the only way we will win is to buy pitching, might make a difference. Again it will depend on how badly Angelos wants to win.

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I think with the injury issues with Koji and the downfall of DiceK, that would be the last place the Orioles would put their money.

I think Wilson is going to be their top target.

I think its the last thing they would do even if those guys were home runs.

The Orioles just aren't going to do the posting fee stuff.

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True, but the "grow the arms" has been an epic failure.

Again, it will depend on how badly PGA wants to win.

While it is impossible for me to disagree with the statement that "grow the arms" has been an "epic failure," I am not ready to write off any of our young pitchers. The Orioles will never be a good team unless they can grow a significant amount of their own talent. No matter how badly PGA wants to win, free agents can only do so much to supplement a team that doesn't have unlimited resources.

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While it is impossible for me to disagree with the statement that "grow the arms" has been an "epic failure," I am not ready to write off any of our young pitchers. The Orioles will never be a good team unless they can grow a significant amount of their own talent. No matter how badly PGA wants to win, free agents can only do so much to supplement a team that doesn't have unlimited resources.

Free agents can be used to win intially to buy time for the farm system if you actually put good-premium talent on the field instead of the mediocre-poor talent that the Orioles hoped would overachieve and never did.

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Yea, I brought this up earlier in the thread. It definitely makes you wonder.

Is it possible that CJ just doesn't want to be in Texas anymore and the Rangers know it already?

Very possible, but if it were me I'd say I had two options right now. Take that contract and try to get as many years as possible wherever I can get it (Yankees) OR take a shorter large contract with a pitching-friendly NL team and come back for one more large contract in 2-3 years. Age is working against him a bit, trying to get a long contract at 34 would be tough, but Carpenter just got a nice sized extension. I feel like he'd be crazy to walk away from the big money, which is where the thought keeps nagging at me. TEX could go toe to toe with the Yanks and give him the big contract, but they don't seem interested in doing that. He's going to get a CRAZY big contract driven up by the big teams needing pitching this offseason, and in a year or two will be an albatross of a contract. I just don't think it's the RIGHT scenario for the O's right now and there are better options in 2013.

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