2011 Top-30 Prospects thread

[Enjoy Terror]

Alright, my list, updated on 10/25:

1 RHP Dylan Bundy

2 SS Manuel Machado

3 2B Jonathan Schoop

4 RHP Robert Bundy

5 2B LJ Hoes

6 1B Tyler Townsend*

7 RHP Parker Bridwell

8 3B Jason Esposito

9 3B Nick Delmonico

10 CF Glynn Davis

11 CF Xavier Avery*

12 RHP Clayton Schrader

13 RHP Daniel Klein

14 RHP David Baker

15 LHP Eduardo Rodriguez*

16 RHP Jaime Esquivel

17 RHP Sebastian Vader

18 2B Ryan Adams

19 1B Joe Mahoney*

20 CF Trent Mummey*

21 RHP Randy Henry

22 RHP Dennis Wright

23 RHP Tyler Wilson

24 LHP Trent Howard*

25 RHP Kyle Simon

26 RF Roderick Bernadina

27 3B Hector Veloz

28 RHP Miguel Chalas

29 LHP Cameron Coffey

30 RHP Ryan Berry

Next ten, for context and giggles.

31 SS Mychal Givens

32 CA Caleb Joseph

33 RHP Matthew Hobgood

34 CA Gabriel Lino

35 CA Wynston Sawyer

36 3B Connor Narron

37 CF Matt Angle

38 RHP Oliver Drake

39 2B Greg Miclat

40 CF Kyle Hudson

[Enjoy Terror]

David Baker is a 20-yo man who, against all odds, pitched well enough to be successful at two levels this year. While not a great prospect, he's made strides to put himself into the discussion, much in a way that this young man did. Consistency and the ability to put up strong numbers is going to get David to the show, because he doesn't really have a prospect status to help him.

[ToadB22]

1. SS Machado

2. P D. Bundy

3. 3B Schoop

4. P B. Bundy

5. P Schrader

6. OF Hoes

7. P Bridwell

8. 1B Towsend

9. 3B Esposito

10. P Klein (man, I wish he didn't get hurt...he'd be #3 in my book)

11. 2B Adams

12. 3B Delmonico

13. OF Avery

14. 1B Mahoney

15. P E. Rodriguez

16. P Vader

17. SS Givens

18. P Henry

19. P Wright

20. P Wilson

21. OF G. Davis

22. P Coffey

23. OF Bernadina

24. P Pettit

25. 3B Narron

26. P Bywater

27. P Berry

28. P Taylor

29. OF Mummey

30. P Hobgood

I feel like this group has the biggest chasm of talent/production between top and bottom in a long time. That's good from the point that we have a legitimate 1-4, but awful considering the bottom 15 or so. The potential is there for a great group if a few question marks turn out (Klein/Coffey/Ohlman/Hobgood/Givens being healthy and productive namely), but I know a lot of teams have the same types of question marks.

As you can tell I really like this past year's draft class. I really think we'll see 4-5 of them making solid MLB contributions.

[blazer]

1. D Bundy

2. Machado

3. Schoop

4. B Bundy

5. Hoes

6. Schrader

7. Klein

8. Bridwell

9. Esposito

10. Rodriguez

11. G Davis

12. Avery

13. Adams

14. Wright

15. Esquivel

16. Delmonico

17. Bernadina

18. Hobgood

19. R Berry

20. Simon

21. Angle

22. Vader

23. Miclat

24. Mahoney

25. Henry

26. Townsend

27. Baker

28. Mummey

29. Coffey

30. Givens

Next 10: Chalas, Wilson, Lino, Drake, Joseph, T Berry, Sawyer, Veloz, Reuttiger, Davies

[GoGoPower]

1. Manny Machado

2. Dylan Bundy

3. Jonathan Schoop

4. Gabriel Lino

5. Robert Bundy

6. Matt Hobgood

7. Jason Esposito

8. Ryan Adams

9. Dan Klein

10. Parker Bridwell

11. Eduardo Rodriguez

12. Roderick Bernadina

13. Glynn Davis

14. Trent Mummey

15. Nick Delmonico

16. Hector Veloz

17. Tyler Townsend

18. Joe Mahoney

19. Randy Henry

20. Oliver Drake

21. Cameron Coffey

22. Xavier Avery

23. Clayton Schrader

24. Jaime Esquivel

25. Miguel Chalas

26. Mychal Givens

27. LJ Hoes

28. Brandon Erbe

29. Connor Narron

30. Ryan Berry

[Crazysilver03]

1. Manny Machado

2. Dylan Bundy

3. Jonathan Schoop

4. Gabriel Lino

5. Robert Bundy

6. Matt Hobgood

7. Jason Esposito

8. Ryan Adams

9. Dan Klein

10. Parker Bridwell

11. Eduardo Rodriguez

12. Roderick Bernadina

13. Trent Mummey

14. Nick Delmonico

15. Hector Veloz

16. Tyler Townsend

17. Joe Mahoney

18. Randy Henry

19. Oliver Drake

20. Cameron Coffey

21. Xavier Avery

22. Clayton Schrader

23. Jaime Esquivel

24. Miguel Chalas

25. Mychal Givens

26. LJ Hoes

27. Brandon Erbe

28. Connor Narron

29. Ryan Berry

30. Sebastian Vader

Who so high on Lino and Hobgood?

[GoGoPower]

Who so high on Lino and Hobgood?

Lino - Love his offensive and defensive potential at catcher - Very good power potential and contact ability and a great arm. I see him as a top-tier talent as a catching prospect, and I think the bat and arm will be good enough to play at 3B/RF if he doesn't stick there.

Hobgood - Eh, he was pretty hard to rank, but I personally tend to favor ceiling over anything else, especially at the top of the list. The conditioning is an issue and he has plenty of work to do, but he still has top-of-the-rotation potential in my opinion.

[weams]

1 RHP Dylan Bundy

2 SS Manny Machado

3 2B Jonathan Schoop

4 RHP Bobby Bundy

5 RHP Clay Schrader

6 LF LJ Hoes

7 RHP Parker Bridwell

8 1B Tyler Townsend

9 CF Xavier Avery

10 3B Jason Esposito

11 CF Glynn Davis

12 2B Ryan Adams

13 LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

14 RHP Daniel Klein

15 3B Nick Delmonico

16 CF Trent Mummey

17 RHP Randy Henry

18 1B Joe Mahoney

19 RHP Jaime Esquivel

20 RHP Sebastian Vader

21 LHP Cameron Coffey

22 RHP Dennis Wright

23 3B Connor Narron

24 RHP Oliver Drake

25 LHP Matt Bywater

26 RHP Matthew Hobgood

27 RHP Tyler Wilson

28 SS Mychal Givens

29 RF Roderick Bernadina

30 RHP Ryan Berry

[LookinUp]

After Bundy, I have no idea where to put most of the pitchers from the 2011 draft, so they're out for now.

1. Machado

2. D. Bundy

3. Schoop

4. B. Bundy

5. Hoes

6. Esposito

7. Bridwell

8. Delmonico

9. Schrader

10. Angle

11. R. Adams

12. Townsend

13. Davis

14. Mahoney

15. Drake

16. Avery

17. Mummey

18. Esquivel

19. Hobgood

20. Baker

21. Berry

22. Klein

23. Cowan

24. Henry

25. T. Berry

26. Coffey

27. Welty

28. Bernadina

29. Veloz

30. Lino

[Enjoy Terror]

Of the 8 lists posted so far, I threw them into a spreadsheet just to see what the average rank would be for each.

I will not criticize anyone's picks; prospect lists are very much an exercise in guessing, both wildly and educated. These are some outliers I noticed, and if on purpose, awesome, but sometimes people miss some players.

OldOriole: Baker @ 5, no Bridwell

Toad B22: no Esquivel

blazer: Townsend @ 26

GoGoPower: Lino @ 4, Hobgood @ 6, Schrader @ 22, Hoes @ 26, Erbe @ 27, no Davis

weams: nothing to note

RZNJ: nothing to note

LookinUp: no E. Rod, Angle @ 10

[LookinUp]

LookinUp: no E. Rod, Angle @ 10

ERod is an oversight. As I mentioned, I also think a couple of the picks from this past year need to be included and are not yet.

Angle at 10 could drop some, but the guy seems to have some value today as a 4th outfielder. Ditto Adams off the bench. I have an incredibly hard time knowing where to put them, as opposed to some kid who pitched well in rookie league. I could easily see them ending up towards the 20ish range in Tony's rankings. I really have no idea. I do know that the rookie league all stars need to do it again for me to start buying in to anything above the 12-15 range. I just cannot inflate heretofore unknown arms that much based on domination of a low caliber of competition (e.g., stats only). This is probably my problem, rather than yours or anyone else's, but I need more to go on before I buy in.

This is also why I subscribe to this site. Accounts from Tony, scouts and all of you other knowledgeable posters will add a ton to what I think of most of these guys.

By the way, I don't quite understand the love for Schraeder. I like the guy myself, but his control issues and upside (relief) make me question my own rankings, where he's above Drake, for example.

[Enjoy Terror]

By the way, I don't quite understand the love for Schraeder. I like the guy myself, but his control issues and upside (relief) make me question my own rankings, where he's above Drake, for example.

I'm a Schrader fan; outside of Klein he was easily the best reliever in the system... But he was just a reliever which knocks him down a few pegs. I rank him high because, to me, he will be contributing the Orioles within the next two years. I don't even really question whether he will pitch in the majors, its more about when. Drake is more of an enigma; his consistency will determine if he's able to be a major leaguer.

[LookinUp]

I'm a Schrader fan; outside of Klein he was easily the best reliever in the system... But he was just a reliever which knocks him down a few pegs. I rank him high because, to me, he will be contributing the Orioles within the next two years. I don't even really question whether he will pitch in the majors, its more about when. Drake is more of an enigma; his consistency will determine if he's able to be a major leaguer.

I feel like Drake will go to the pen and be a good reliever. I'm assuming his already pretty good stuff will play up, only with better command than Schraeder.

[Enjoy Terror]

When I see Drake's stats, he just reminds me of Rick Zagone Lite. I'd argue that Zagone had a better 2011 than Drake did, in fact. I do like that Drake added himself back into the conversation a bit, but I feel like he doesn't blow away hitters like he should to warrant a higher ranking.

[blazer]

Of the 8 lists posted so far, I threw them into a spreadsheet just to see what the average rank would be for each.

I will not criticize anyone's picks; prospect lists are very much an exercise in guessing, both wildly and educated. These are some outliers I noticed, and if on purpose, awesome, but sometimes people miss some players.

OldOriole: Baker @ 5, no Bridwell

Toad B22: no Esquivel

blazer: Townsend @ 26

GoGoPower: Lino @ 4, Hobgood @ 6, Schrader @ 22, Hoes @ 26, Erbe @ 27, no Davis

weams: nothing to note

RZNJ: nothing to note

LookinUp: no E. Rod, Angle @ 10

In regards to Townsend, he just can't seem to stay healthy and it lowers him quite a bit on my list. While he has produced when playing, I'm skeptical that he'll be able to put a full season together, let along back to back full seasons. At 24 next year he needs to produce in Bowie to show he's a legit prospect.