2011 Top-30 Prospects thread

[Lucky Jim]

Just having a little fun here but you have Hobgood at #18 who has neither produced or proven he can stay healthy. His health is in bigger question than Townsend's probably and he hasn't shown a thing.

Oh, sweet bird of youth!

[GoGoPower]

Of the 8 lists posted so far, I threw them into a spreadsheet just to see what the average rank would be for each.

I will not criticize anyone's picks; prospect lists are very much an exercise in guessing, both wildly and educated. These are some outliers I noticed, and if on purpose, awesome, but sometimes people miss some players.

OldOriole: Baker @ 5, no Bridwell

Toad B22: no Esquivel

blazer: Townsend @ 26

GoGoPower: Lino @ 4, Hobgood @ 6, Schrader @ 22, Hoes @ 26, Erbe @ 27, no Davis

weams: nothing to note

RZNJ: nothing to note

LookinUp: no E. Rod, Angle @ 10

D'oh, I thought I had him on there but it looks like he got left off somehow. He should have been #13 on my list. Thanks for pointing it out, I'll go back and edit him in.

[Tony-OH]

1. D Bundy

2. Machado

3. Schoop

4. B Bundy

5. Hoes

6. Schrader

7. Klein

8. Bridwell

9. Esposito

10. Rodriguez

11. G Davis

12. Avery

13. Adams

14. Wright

15. Esquivel

16. Delmonico

17. Bernadina

18. Hobgood

19. R Berry

20. Simon

21. Angle

22. Vader

23. Miclat

24. Mahoney

25. Henry

26. Townsend

27. Baker

28. Mummey

29. Coffey

30. Givens

Next 10: Chalas, Wilson, Lino, Drake, Joseph, T Berry, Sawyer, Veloz, Reuttiger, Davies

So, if you were building a farm system and know what you know right now, you would take Hobgood over Simon, Angle, Miclat, Henry, Townsend, Baker, Mummey, Berry and Lino? You always put together a good list so why so high on Hobgood besides his draft status?

[Tony-OH]

Don't forget, the Orioles gave Nick Delmonico $1.525 millions for a reason. I keep seeing him pretty low on a lot of lists and he's basically a 1st round draft pick.

[JohnD]

He is? Or is he just paid like one? Where would someone have to be taken in the first round to get paid a bonus he got? And why didn't another team use that pick on him instead?

[weams]

He is? Or is he just paid like one? Where would someone have to be taken in the first round to get paid a bonus he got? And why didn't another team use that pick on him instead?

As high as number 16 overall or later with the right circumstances. But as a sign-ability pick? 15 or 16 in the first round.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110815&content_id=23240260&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

[Lucky Jim]

Don't forget, the Orioles gave Nick Delmonico $1.525 millions for a reason. I keep seeing him pretty low on a lot of lists and he's basically a 1st round draft pick.

As high as number 16 overall or later with the right circumstances. But as a sign-ability pick? 15 or 16 in the first round.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110815&content_id=23240260&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14690099&topic_id=18682064

[Tony-OH]

He is? Or is he just paid like one? Where would someone have to be taken in the first round to get paid a bonus he got? And why didn't another team use that pick on him instead?

Because his asking price was $1.5- $2 million dollars and apparently the other organizations did not want or could not go that high. Remember, not every organization out there does the over slot thing so even if some team thought he was a late first round talent, they may not have the ownership go ahead to draft and pay a guy after that first round that kind of money. From what I heard, Delmonico was very impressive in the instructional league and may be one of the best high school hitter they have drafted in over 20+ years.

Of course that's a bit of a backhanded compliment considering the hitters that made it the Orioles after being drafted out of high school is a very short list.

[Lucky Jim]

Because his asking price was $1.5- $2 million dollars and apparently the other organizations did not want or could not go that high. Remember, not every organization out there does the over slot thing so even if some team thought he was a late first round talent, they may not have the ownership go ahead to draft and pay a guy after that first round that kind of money. From what I heard, Delmonico was very impressive in the instructional league and may be one of the best high school hitter they have drafted in over 20+ years.

Of course that's a bit of a backhanded compliment considering the hitters that made it the Orioles after being drafted out of high school is a very short list.

If I remember correctly, the asking price, in combination with a "not awesome" senior year (I don't think it was a bad one), created a enough uncertainty around him to drop him a bit. That's a different thing, and a different risk, then, say, a depreciation in his upside. Good to know he's been impressive so far. This is one of those picks where I was like "love the impulse, worried about the outcome." Adding Bundy and an elite corner bat to our farm system, with top-shelf middle-infield prospects, would be very welcome.

[blazer]

So, if you were building a farm system and know what you know right now, you would take Hobgood over Simon, Angle, Miclat, Henry, Townsend, Baker, Mummey, Berry and Lino? You always put together a good list so why so high on Hobgood besides his draft status?

Hobgood is still pretty high on my list because he was a high school 1st round pick and is still pretty young. However, at that point of the list you could argue for any of the guys you mentioned. Townsend, Mummey and Berry have all had injury issues but still have good ceilings. Angle, Miclat and Henry should have ML careers but don't have high ceilings. Simon, Baker and Lino have played mostly or exclusively in short season, but have ML talent.

[Tony-OH]

Tony, you've heard a lot of things during your time. It doesn't always agree with what you finally wind up seeing. How much skepticism do you have regarding these reports?

Well, I always try and get as many thoughts as possible on guys so the more sources I have on a guy the better I feel. Of course I also feel a TON better when I get my own eyes on them but that's not always possible with the 1st year or just drafted guys. unfortunately, there's not a ton to get excited about so the newly drafted guys are still the shiny nickle.

I'm feeling pretty good about the list this year but I also think there are going to be some surprises up and down the top 30. As always, I'm going to take some grief on some Hangout favorites as they slide down the list.

[LookinUp]

I'm going to take some grief on some Hangout favorites as they slide down the list.

I'm thinking Klein and Townsend will slide. Maybe Bridwell, but I'm not sure. I do think Esposito and Delmonico have to be in the 5-7 range (after Bundys, Machado, Schoop). I'll be surprised if 2 of Hoes, Bridwell or the really young guys jump above them. One, maybe, but not two.

[Edit: After writing this post, I see that I have Delmonico 8th. Now I'm thinking he'll be more like 5-6. Also, I can see Schrader (OH favorite) sliding. My list becomes quite uninformed after about #8...lol. So, my new top 8 is Machado, Bundy, Schoop, Bundy, Delmonico, Esposito, Hoes, Bridwell.]

[Lucky Jim]

I'm thinking Klein and Townsend will slide. Maybe Bridwell, but I'm not sure. I do think Esposito and Delmonico have to be in the 5-7 range (after Bundys, Machado, Schoop). I'll be surprised if 2 of Hoes, Bridwell or the really young guys jump above them. One, maybe, but not two.

[Edit: After writing this post, I see that I have Delmonico 8th. Now I'm thinking he'll be more like 5-6. Also, I can see Schrader (OH favorite) sliding. My list becomes quite uninformed after about #8...lol. So, my new top 8 is Machado, Bundy, Schoop, Bundy, Delmonico, Esposito, Hoes, Bridwell.]

I'd be pretty surprised if Hoes, Esposito and Delmonico were ahead of Bridwell.

[wildcard]

My guess at Tony's list:

1. Machado

2. D. Bundy

3. Schoop

4. Schrader

5. Hoes

6. Bridwell

7. B. Bundy

8. Esposito

9. Klein

10. Avery

11. E. Rodriguez

12. Adams

13. Esquival

14. G. Davis

15. Delmonico

16. Vader

17. Townsend

18. Mummey

19. Henry

20. Wright

21. Miclat

22. Drake

23. D. Baker

24. Coffey

25. Angle

26. Simon

27. Wilson

28. R Berry

29. Lino

30. Mahoney

Honorable Mention: (in no particular order) Bywater, Givens, Martin, Cowan, Wirsch, Hobgood, Joseph

My list:

1. Machado

2. D. Bundy

3. Schoop

4. B. Bundy

5. Hoes

6. Klein

7. Bridwell

8. Mahoney

9. E Rodriguez

10. Avery

11. Schrader

12. Townsend

13. Esquival

14. Delmonico

15. Adams

16. Miclat

17. Esposito

18. D Baker

19. Vader

20. Mummey

21. Wright

22. Chalas

23. Medina

24. Angle

25. Hudson

27. Zach Phillips

28. Wilson

29. Coffey

30. Lino

31. Joseph

[LookinUp]

I'd be pretty surprised if Hoes, Esposito and Delmonico were ahead of Bridwell.

We'll see. I think Bridwell is REALLY raw still. He's closer to the rookie league guys than Bobby Bundy, for example. We know Tony likes Hoes' bat, Esposito is a high 2nd round pick and Delmonico is rated in the same area. If he likes Bridwell better than them I'll be happy because that means Bridwell has shown more in practice than than just projectability.