Orioles at least scouting Darvish

[LookinUp]

I agree

Michael Morse had a heck of a year and they still have LaRoche. Fielder would be too much, Imo.

Right, but they may think Morse can play OF. I too think it would be dumb for them to go after Fielder, but the case is made for them because they're throwing around big money.

[backwardsk]

It's a sealed bid process so the Yankees wouldn't know they were being outbid until the bidding is over. It's an opportunity to sneak one by them with a surprisingly large posting fee.

This whole sealed bid stuff reminds me of the patrick Ewing lottery.

[CaltoBilltoMill]

Link

Not really new info, his current salary is about $6.5M (500M JPY) and the club is likely going to grant his wish and post him.

[Lucky Jim]

A question is bugging me: If the translation of the Nippon League is something like AAAA, why aren't there more successful position players making the same kind of move?

[BaltimoreTerp]

A question is bugging me: If the translation of the Nippon League is something like AAAA, why aren't there more successful position players making the same kind of move?

Because the difference in leagues suppresses offense more than (apparently) pitching. Ichiro Suzuki averaged almost twice as many homers (17) per season in Japan as in the US (9). Hideki Matsui hit 50 homers in Japan on year, and only once broke 30 in America. On the flip side, some AAAA player like Tuffy Rhodes or Craig Brazell can hop across the Pacific and become legendary sluggers.

[Lucky Jim]

Because the difference in leagues suppresses offense more than (apparently) pitching. Ichiro Suzuki averaged almost twice as many homers (17) per season in Japan as in the US (9). Hideki Matsui hit 50 homers in Japan on year, and only once broke 30 in America. On the flip side, some AAAA player like Tuffy Rhodes or Craig Brazell can hop across the Pacific and become legendary sluggers.

Right. I guess I'm just curious about how we translate it - we keep saying "better than AAA," but I have trouble understanding how that can be the case.

[allstar1579]

A question is bugging me: If the translation of the Nippon League is something like AAAA, why aren't there more successful position players making the same kind of move?

Our AAAA players can be all-stars over there, but only the superstars there can really make it in the majors here. I always looked at the competition somewhere near AAA level.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Right. I guess I'm just curious about how we translate it - we keep saying "better than AAA," but I have trouble understanding how that can be the case.

I'm not advanced enough at math to know for sure, but my guess would be that the answer is in talent distribution. They draw from a relatively limited pool of talent, so while there are guys who can come to America and star there are probably others playing at high levels who wouldn't make it out of rookie ball here. Overall, the league grades out to a little above US AAA, but the players with the most talent feast on those with the least to an extant you don't see here outside of, say, high school (and for the same reason).

[Lucky Jim]

I'm not advanced enough at math to know for sure, but my guess would be that the answer is in talent distribution. They draw from a relatively limited pool of talent, so while there are guys who can come to America and star there are probably others playing at high levels who wouldn't make it out of rookie ball here. Overall, the league grades out to a little above US AAA, but the players with the most talent feast on those with the least to an extant you don't see here outside of, say, high school (and for the same reason).

All my thoughts, too. I just wonder if this uneven distribution is one of the obstacles for pitchers coming to the U.S. that's hard to calculate (i.e., leading to elevated pitch counts for pitchers like Matsuzaka).

[Stotle]

All my thoughts, too. I just wonder if this uneven distribution is one of the obstacles for pitchers coming to the U.S. that's hard to calculate (i.e., leading to elevated pitch counts for pitchers like Matsuzaka).

Bingo bango bongo.

[Lucky Jim]

Bingo bango bongo.

See. I get there eventually.

[sangar]

Since the Yankees are desperate for pitching, I think there is no way we can compete with them. I really hope I am wrong.

The Angels are renegotiating their TV contract and it will give them an extra 40-50M per year. And, they have openly stated their top priority is another quality starter. I wouldn't count them out of anything just yet.

[CaltoBilltoMill]

A question is bugging me: If the translation of the Nippon League is something like AAAA, why aren't there more successful position players making the same kind of move?

I think it could be for a few reasons, but it is more players in general not coming. Teams get a huge financial benefit from the posting, but they are also NBP with a huge and very loyal fan base. They can't decimate their leagues, which isn't specific to position players obviously. The NPB takes power hitters and pitchers from the US and typically guys who can throw heat. Most are corner infielders, some outfields or guys who can DH. They have several guys who are good defensive players, but not much pop and not super high averages. The strike zone is a lot bigger in the NPB, so maybe the sku's some of the statistics, but they can't always give up their best players who would come over and be average in the MLB. They need them here. A lot of the guys too wouldn't want to go if they're just a pretty good player here. They grew up following NPB, some MLB too, but NPB was their dream and they're Japanese and want to be in Japan. Not true for all of them and certainly not true for guys who kind of hit their ceiling in the NPB. Nippon Ham actually has a great CF's Itoi, number 7. I think he would be a great player in MLB. 5 tools, but he really has no clue he could ever make it there. Maybe no interest, I don't know, but he is a great player, would love to see what he could do in MLB in the right situation. This is all my opinion and I started writing this a long time ago, then went to a meeting, so if someone else already said similar, sorry.

[DrungoHazewood]

A question is bugging me: If the translation of the Nippon League is something like AAAA, why aren't there more successful position players making the same kind of move?

Right. I guess I'm just curious about how we translate it - we keep saying "better than AAA," but I have trouble understanding how that can be the case.

We keep saying that because the folks who've done the translations (i.e. Clay Davenports work, and others) have found the average talent level to be somewhere in between AAA and the majors.

I'm not advanced enough at math to know for sure, but my guess would be that the answer is in talent distribution. They draw from a relatively limited pool of talent, so while there are guys who can come to America and star there are probably others playing at high levels who wouldn't make it out of rookie ball here. Overall, the league grades out to a little above US AAA, but the players with the most talent feast on those with the least to an extant you don't see here outside of, say, high school (and for the same reason).

Yes, that's it. It's the difference between an independent league and an affiliated league. Affiliated player-development leagues like the US minors have a tighter grouping of talent. There aren't any 36-year-olds (or very few) with 84 mph fastballs in the affiliated minors, although they might be 2.75 ERA guys in AAA if allowed. There aren't many 19-year-olds in AAA either. In Japan there may be both, because of a smaller talent pool and different priorities and incentives. Japanese teams are tying to win above all else. They don't care at all about how Darvish might perform in the majors next year. They don't care at all that the 36-year-old with the 84 mph fastball probably won't translate to the majors, he's helping them win right now. And, of course, there's no automatic mechanism to funnel their best talent to the states. Most of their good players never leave.

There's also the difference in style of play. Remember, when Ichiro came over lots of people said he'd never translate. That nobody succeeds hitting like that (despite the fact that 50 years ago or 100 years ago lots of MLB players did just what Ichiro does).

AAAA is shorthand because that's what we understand. The Cuban league is about the same average talent level as the Sally League. But they have half a dozen or a dozen guys who'd be MLB stars, playing on the same rosters as 18-year-old kids, 43-year-old grizzled vets, and 26-year-old shortstops who wouldn't have ever been drafted in the states. It certainly adds complexity to translating performance, especially when the other variables aren't constant (balls, parks, schedules, etc) either.

[RVAbird]

We keep saying that because the folks who've done the translations (i.e. Clay Davenports work, and others) have found the average talent level to be somewhere in between AAA and the majors.

.

Just curious, do you know the last time Clay did a serious translation study between NPB and MLB? I'm sure the sample has expanded significantly in the last 2-3 years. I'd be interested to view a recent study.