Orioles at least scouting Darvish

[BarclaySouthway]

Darvish 2 seamer and shuuto: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vCQ13xrWtM

Quite a few of those guys look like they could help our staff. The last one looks like Koji reincarnated.

[El Gordo]

Quite a few of those guys look like they could help our staff. The last one looks like Koji reincarnated.

Sorry, wrong link I've redidted .That's Darvishs'e two seamer now. He apparantly throws two different sliders but I couldn't find any video.

[Remember The Alomar]

Those translated numbers, at least that his FIP, would only be league average. Not a great K/BB ratio.

Of course, I have no insight on the methodology. Could all be bunk. I'd trust the opinions of real scouts more than anything.

[El Gordo]

Those translated numbers, at least that his FIP, would only be league average. Not a great K/BB ratio.

Of course, I have no insight on the methodology. Could all be bunk. I'd trust the opinions of real scouts more than anything.

Those numbers are if he had the same problem adjusting to MLB as Dice -K, but since he is 2 years younger, has thrown less innings, and has a better K/BB ratio, that is a worst case scenario. But if you actually read the link you proabaly would get that

[Remember The Alomar]

Those numbers are if he had the same problem adjusting to MLB as Dice -K, but since he is 2 years younger, has thrown less innings, and has a better K/BB ratio, that is a worst case scenario. But if you actually read the link you proabaly would get that

Yeah, I didn't have the time to read through the links you posted. I'm sure he could put up better numbers than that.

I'm still wary of all NPB pitchers, though.

[Hallas]

Those translated numbers, at least that his FIP, would only be league average. Not a great K/BB ratio.

Of course, I have no insight on the methodology. Could all be bunk. I'd trust the opinions of real scouts more than anything.

The good FIP and ERA are probably a result of his low HR total, which is only going to hold up if his sinker translates.

[El Gordo]

Yeah, I didn't have the time to read through the links you posted. I'm sure he could put up better numbers than that.

I'm still wary of all NPB pitchers, though.

Read the links then see if your are still as wary. That's why I posted them.

[El Gordo]

The good FIP and ERA are probably a result of his low HR total, which is only going to hold up if his sinker translates.

I would have thought they were more a function of his K rate. If you strike out 10 batters a game your FIP is likely to be low. He will probabaly strike out fewer, if he lowers his pitch count but I doubt it will lead to much of a higher HR rate. The guy has a sinker, a two seamer, two different sliders, as well as a change, and a four seamer that sits at 94 and touches 97.

[crissfan172]

Darvish a whole bunch of K's: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIUeoBrqjHk

Absolute filth.

[El Gordo]

Absolute filth.

Doesn't look like a nibbler to me. Excellent command.

[GoldGlove21]

Doesn't look like a nibbler to me. Excellent command.

The catcher is setting up a foot off the plate in some of those K's. Umps are calling pitches a foot off the plate that left his hand as a ball and never crossed the plate. I think he has got terrific movement on his stuff, but I see nothing from him that makes me think that he is Strasburg good. I would have a hard time if I had to give up a $40M-$50M positing fee only to have to sign the guy to a $85M-$100M type deal.

The Orioles do not like to spend big in the international markets. Peter Angelos doesn't like to give pitchers huge contracts because they do not pitch more than 1-2 times per week and we have never given out a $100M contract before. On top of that the only rumored contract in that area was the one that we offered Tex that we probably knew right away that he wasn't going to accept the offer. If I am reading the tea leaves correctly than I will say that there is a good chance that Darvish will be a New York Yankee long before he will be a member of the Baltimore Orioles.

[El Gordo]

The catcher is setting up a foot off the plate in some of those K's. Umps are calling pitches a foot off the plate that left his hand as a ball and never crossed the plate. I think he has got terrific movement on his stuff, but I see nothing from him that makes me think that he is Strasburg good. I would have a hard time if I had to give up a $40M-$50M positing fee only to have to sign the guy to a $85M-$100M type deal.

The Orioles do not like to spend big in the international markets. Peter Angelos doesn't like to give pitchers huge contracts because they do not pitch more than 1-2 times per week and we have never given out a $100M contract before. On top of that the only rumored contract in that area was the one that we offered Tex that we probably knew right away that he wasn't going to accept the offer. If I am reading the tea leaves correctly than I will say that there is a good chance that Darvish will be a New York Yankee long before he will be a member of the Baltimore Orioles.

Once the posting bid is won the contract probably would be closer to 4/50M. He doesn't have any leverage. So we are talking about spending 100-110 M total IMO, at least as much as we would have to spend on Wilson.

[Stotle]

Doesn't look like a nibbler to me. Excellent command.

These aren't mutually exclusive (not that I think he's a "nibbler").

[El Gordo]

These aren't mutually exclusive (not that I think he's a "nibbler").

When I think nibbler I think Kevin Gregg, a guy who pitches scared and tries to paint the corners. I don't see that in Darvish, nor have I read anything in scouting reports cited, to suggest that.

[Stotle]

When I think nibbler I think Kevin Gregg, a guy who pitches scared and tries to paint the corners. I don't see that in Darvish, nor have I read anything in scouting reports cited, to suggest that.

Kevin Greg simply cannot command the ball. I agree Darvish doesn't "nibble". He simply takes advantage of the strikezone given to him (just like Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux did). That said, there is obviously a question as to how well he'll adapt to a smaller strike zone. He'll likely need to trim down his arsenal some. It will be important to have a fair amount of data on him, including how he tends to react to starts without his best stuff. Also, he gets cushy treatment from NPB umpires, so his performance on the international stage should be thoroughly discussed/reviewed as well.