Fangraphs' Marc Hulett's Orioles Top 15 prospects

[Frobby]

1. Dylan Bundy

2. Manny Machado

3. Jonathan Schoop

4. Tyler Townsend

5. Bobby Bundy

6. Nick Delmonico

7. Jason Esposito

8. Xavier Avery

9. Trent Mummey

10. Joe Mahoney

11. Parker Bridwell

12. Glynn Davis

13. L.J. Hoes

14. Dan Klein

15. Mychal Givens

Sleeper: Zach Davies

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-baltimore-orioles/

There are write-ups on the top 10 and less detailed blurbs on nos. 1-15.

[Can_of_corn]

Wow Townsend at 4 is a shock. He must not like anything past the top three if a player with Townsend's writeup landed at 4.

[Traveler]

He just isn't as stubborn on Townsend as Tony is, he has done everything asked of him except stay on the field with the hamstring. The O's do not have anyone in the system at this time with the offensive POTENTIAL that Townsend has;now he has to stay healthy and prove it.

[Can_of_corn]

He just isn't as stubborn on Townsend as Tony is, he has done everything asked of him except stay on the field with the hamstring. The O's do not have anyone in the system at this time with the offensive POTENTIAL that Townsend has. Now he has tostay healthy and prove it.

Check out his K/BB ratio relative to his age and level.

[eb45]

He just isn't as stubborn on Townsend as Tony is, he has done everything asked of him except stay on the field with the hamstring. The O's do not have anyone in the system at this time with the offensive POTENTIAL that Townsend has;now he has to stay healthy and prove it.

He clearly hasn't done everything they asked of him, because they didn't promote him to Bowie during 2011.

[Tony-OH]

He just isn't as stubborn on Townsend as Tony is, he has done everything asked of him except stay on the field with the hamstring. The O's do not have anyone in the system at this time with the offensive POTENTIAL that Townsend has;now he has to stay healthy and prove it.

He can have any opinion on him he likes, just like you, but let me be very clear here, I have yet to talk to one scout outside of the organization that think Townsend is anything more than a potential up/down guy. Not one scout thinks he's going to be a plus defender at first base and all of them agree he's got some major plate discipline issues.

When you add in his K/BB ratio, age vs level, and inability to stay healthy, he's not even in the conversation for the top ten and definitely should be no where near #4.

It's kind of like BA putting Pelzer at #5 last year, it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

Saying that, even though the plate discipline was horrid last season, the doubles, home runs and average make him still an interesting guy for me. He'll be in the 21-30 range for me which means he's still interesting, but has some things he needs to prove he can overcome.

And as I've said before, I've never personally see him play because he was always hurt when I saw his teams, but I did talk with numerous scouts who did see him play quite often and none had a problem with him in the 21-30 range.

I hope you and Hulett are right, but there has never been a guy with his kind of K:BB ratio at his age vs level who ever did anything of note in the major leagues. Maybe he can break the mold?

If he does, good for him, but for me he's still a big-time question mark.

[Traveler]

Fair enough, as usual you have given a good & fair opinion of your thoughts on Townsend, I just hope your wrong. I do think the walk/k ratio is way over blown, but you know a whole lot more about this than I do. Will you at least agree with me based on the numbers that his upside on offense is much greater than most in the organization if he can stay healthy?

[Frobby]

Will you at least agree with me based on the numbers that his upside on offense is much greater than most in the organization if he can stay healthy?

I would agree with it, but it isn't really saying very much. There aren't many players in this organization with a ton of upside on offense.

[Tony-OH]

Fair enough, as usual you have given a good & fair opinion of your thoughts on Townsend, I just hope your wrong. I do think the walk/k ratio is way over blown, but you know a whole lot more about this than I do. Will you at least agree with me based on the numbers that his upside on offense is much greater than most in the organization if he can stay healthy?

Last year Townsend hit for average and power and that's a good thing, but the K:walk ratio is one of the most important things a batter can have in the minor leagues. I've done hours upon hours of research over the years and I've determined that it's one of the most important predictors when combined with power (2bs and HRs) with a huge dose of age vs level. Townsend did well in one of the three categories and I would argue it's the least important of the three for future success.

Let's look at a few noteworthy similar players in the Carolina League over the years compared to Townsend (.312, .580, 14 Bb - 68 K in 292 PA):

Jim Negrych , 23-yrs old (2008) - .370, .508 SLG, 55 BB - 55 K in 451 PA - Never has played in major leagues

Kala Ka'aihue, 22 yrs old, (2007) - .298, .583, 53 BB – 92 K in 376 PA – Never has played in the majors despite being younger and with better plate discipline than Townsend.

Wyatt Toregas, 23 yrs old (2005) - .336, .514, 20-28 in 171 PA – Has received a couple of cups of coffee in major leagues.

I don't have time to dig into more, but I can't find a guy with similar stats and age in the Carolina League who became anything more than a Steven Pearce kind of guy.

As an Orioles fan, I'd love to see Townsend defy the odds, but there isn't a lot of statistical minor league research that backs him being anything more than a 25th man, even when his A-ball stats like average and power looked pretty good.

[Traveler]

Once again, you know a lot more about this than I do. Take a look at the following link and see if it supports what you are saying, I read through it and I have to admit I'm not smart enough to know what he is saying.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/22/2123847/the-significance-of-minor-league-k-rates

[Tony-OH]

I looked over the article and found the data and methods he used to be suspect at best. First, why was he using the baseball cube instead of baseball reference minor league site is beyond me. BR already has exact PA stats. Also, you just can't take K-BB numbers in a vacuum and come up with anything. You have to look at age vs level for those stats to have true meaning.Putting up a 28-80 K-BB ratio as a 19-year old in the Carolina league is a lot different than as a 23-year old. He's the got the right ideas, but his methods leave a ton to be desired.

[Raffy'sMoustache]

I agree that this guy's methods are lazy, at least he admits as much. Does anyone know of a better study examining the use of minor league K rates as a predictor of ML success? I thought this was the kind of thing that would be pretty easy to find on google but surprisingly I didn't see much.

[SrMeowMeow]

Fangraphs has become a bastion of some of the worst popular analysis around. It's really disappointing, and a huge fall from grace for a formerly great site in my eyes. They basically just write two paragraphs on WAR if it's about a player or do a little Googling otherwise.

[Can_of_corn]

What does anyone know about Zach Davies? I don't remember any buzz about his signing. This article says he signed for $575,000 as a 26th rounder and that he's a pitcher. It doesn't look like he pitched last year after signing. He turns 19 next February. I don't remember hearing ANYTHING about him.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/113670-O-s-Agree-To-Terms-w-Davies

[eb45]

What does anyone know about Zach Davies? I don't remember any buzz about his signing. This article says he signed for $575,000 as a 26th rounder and that he's a pitcher. It doesn't look like he pitched last year after signing. He turns 19 next February. I don't remember hearing ANYTHING about him.

Really? He was the #1 later-round target I hoped they'd sign. Smallish body, not a lot of velo, but deep arsenal, good FB movement, advanced pitchability for his age. He's not someone the casual fan would have noticed but someone as tuned in as you I would have expected to have an idea on him.

EDIT: Also, I simply refuse to take a prospect with a 4.1% walk rate seriously. This means that Tyler Townsend is not a prospect in my eyes unless he can get that number up to around 8 or so. I'm definitely not going to say he can't, but I will not expect anything from him because I don't see any way he can deliver without improving his pitch selection.