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Will Carroll on Matsuzaka


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Matsuzaka is going to cost about $30m to buy his rights, then about the same for a three-year deal. I think that based on what I've seen of him on tape and at the Classic, he's one of the ten best pitchers in the game. There's a lot of risk there, both in adjustment and health, but a lot of upside.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=229&PHPSESSID=10dd72940953130978f9a1899f4972fd

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Matsuzaka is going to cost about $30m to buy his rights, then about the same for a three-year deal. I think that based on what I've seen of him on tape and at the Classic, he's one of the ten best pitchers in the game. There's a lot of risk there, both in adjustment and health, but a lot of upside.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=229&PHPSESSID=10dd72940953130978f9a1899f4972fd

And the odds PGA will offer him a contract are what?

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Matsuzaka is going to cost about $30m to buy his rights, then about the same for a three-year deal. I think that based on what I've seen of him on tape and at the Classic, he's one of the ten best pitchers in the game. There's a lot of risk there, both in adjustment and health, but a lot of upside.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=229&PHPSESSID=10dd72940953130978f9a1899f4972fd

Basically what you're saying is, he's a Yankee next year :D

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"Carl Monday (Ohio): In your opinion, who are the most impressive front office people in baseball?

Will Carroll: Carl Monday. Good times.

You know, this is an impossible question. If I answer, I'll leave someone off the list and I'll get a nasty email. There are a TON of very smart people in front offices, far more than most people would think.

I'll say this rather than cop out: If I was hiring a GM, my interview list would go - Chris Antonetti (AGM, Cleveland), Dan Jennings (Scouting, Florida), Kim Ng (AGM, LA), Eddie Bane (Scouting, Angels), Jim Duquette(AGM, Baltimore), and Gary Huckabay."

Duquette's the man, he may have been a better addition than Mazzone.

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Matsuzaka is going to cost about $30m to buy his rights, then about the same for a three-year deal. I think that based on what I've seen of him on tape and at the Classic, he's one of the ten best pitchers in the game. There's a lot of risk there, both in adjustment and health, but a lot of upside.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=229&PHPSESSID=10dd72940953130978f9a1899f4972fd

Seeing him on tape? You put him among the top 10 in the league:rolleyes: Your joking right? Im sure Rick Ankiel looked pretty good on tape too.

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Seeing him on tape? You put him among the top 10 in the league:rolleyes: Your joking right? Im sure Rick Ankiel looked pretty good on tape too.

Well, between Carroll seeing him on tape, the WBC and i am sure, evaluating and translating his stats into the majors, he came up with that idea.

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Seeing him on tape? You put him among the top 10 in the league:rolleyes: Your joking right? Im sure Rick Ankiel looked pretty good on tape too.

Hold on a minute. Rick Ankiel would have been one of the best pitchers in baseball if it wasn't for an extremely bizarre mental meltdown.

He didn't just look good on tape. He looked fantastic when he was striking out 194 big league batters and giving up 68 ERs in 175.0 IP with a WHIP in the 1.2s.

He was the Cardinals version of Daniel Cabrera with better pedigree.

If Matsuzaka looks like Rick Ankiel we should jump all over him and pray that mental disaster doesn't strike twice.

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Well, between Carroll seeing him on tape, the WBC and i am sure, evaluating and translating his stats into the majors, he came up with that idea.

Then say thats what Will thinks, because that translating part (sample size) adds a huge degree of credibility beyond the tapes and WBC.

Why don't we talk about the most important comment in the chat:

I hope they don't go spend a bunch of money, but instead focus on getting everything in order, then making a push once they've built an 85 win team
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That's Will's take, but not necessarily any kind of BPro consensus. Joe Sheehan's been making generally favorable Orioles comments since the deadline:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5373

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5489

Now, I don't know that we can make that 15 win improvement he alludes to without signing someone unlikely like Bonds, Sheffield or Edmonds, but if you sprinkle one of those guys in with a mega contract for Soriano or Lee, things could be pretty interesting.

FWIW, Clay Davenport told me a couple years ago that he thought Matsuzaka was a comparable talent to Jake Peavy. Of course, Daisuke's has had his arm slagged a couple more years since then, but he's still probably the pitcher I'd be most excited about acquiring.

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I'll say this rather than cop out: If I was hiring a GM, my interview list would go - Chris Antonetti (AGM, Cleveland), Dan Jennings (Scouting, Florida), Kim Ng (AGM, LA), Eddie Bane (Scouting, Angels), Jim Duquette(AGM, Baltimore), and Gary Huckabay."

Duquette's the man, he may have been a better addition than Mazzone.

This was good to here, I think we got a little lucky acquiring Duquette.

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"Carl Monday (Ohio): In your opinion, who are the most impressive front office people in baseball?

Will Carroll: Carl Monday. Good times.

You know, this is an impossible question. If I answer, I'll leave someone off the list and I'll get a nasty email. There are a TON of very smart people in front offices, far more than most people would think.

I'll say this rather than cop out: If I was hiring a GM, my interview list would go - Chris Antonetti (AGM, Cleveland), Dan Jennings (Scouting, Florida), Kim Ng (AGM, LA), Eddie Bane (Scouting, Angels), Jim Duquette(AGM, Baltimore), and Gary Huckabay."

Duquette's the man, he may have been a better addition than Mazzone.

Not too loud, most people around hear think he's an idiot for not trading for Baker and not bringing up the mighty Terrero.:rolleyes:
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That's Will's take, but not necessarily any kind of BPro consensus. Joe Sheehan's been making generally favorable Orioles comments since the deadline:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5373

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5489

Now, I don't know that we can make that 15 win improvement he alludes to without signing someone unlikely like Bonds, Sheffield or Edmonds, but if you sprinkle one of those guys in with a mega contract for Soriano or Lee, things could be pretty interesting.

I agree its not a consensus, but I think Joe indirectly supports Will's point: best case scenario the Os get to 85 or so wins, and as you allude, that involves taking on some serious salary and making risky signings. So best case we are third best in the division with a lot less payroll flexibility? There's an out in that its possible increased competitiveness makes MASN a money machine and we can thereafter re-up like the Blue Jays, but it seems constrictive. But maybe I lack vision.

I favor letting the pitching grow and I'm not entirely sure what else, but I fear adding big payroll *with* long term/multi-year strings attached. I can live with a mega deal but if Soriano for no more than 5 years (maybe an option).

I think the Braves comp is appealling but entirely unrealistic. We have no Leibrandt (he was much better in 90 than any vet on our staff this year) and neither Loewen or Dcab are where Glavine was, although the Avery comp doesn't seem unrealistic. In 1991 they also had 4 guys give them 210+ innings while we have a 5 man rotation, which means one more starter must also put it together.

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