Who is the next JR House or Jon Knott we could sign this offseason?

[Boy Howdy]

If fixing the big things and fixing the little things are currently mutually exclusive for the Baltimore Orioles my #1 priority would be to hire more people for the front office so they can cover all of the things a good major league organization needs to be doing all of the time.

On this, we can agree 100%.

I'm sending a resume today!

[El Gordo]

Maybe you're the one who should read things before you read into them. All I said from the beginning is that the Orioles should be finding players who could possibly be better than the players like Millar, Huff, Payton, etc... who have done nothing but add to the status quo with mediocre play for millions of dollars per year that could have been better off spent elsewhere.

You strongly disagreed and presented a reason that made absolutely no sense. I responded with "that way of thinking has lead to 10 years of losing."

Obviously, logic is lost on you.

This was my initial response to thread, not to you specifically:

The only way I would rather watch a career MiL play over Millar, would be if he were better. Most of the time they aren't. For every Cust there are 2-300 Ed Rodgers' or Larry Bigbies. I think if we have some good role player types next year they will get playing time. I hardly think MacP would hire a manager who only plays vets, if he intended to get younger and he's done nothing to indicate that that's not what he intends.

How am I strongly disagreeing with you? Do you think the Cust's are the rule and not the exception? Do you really believe MacP hired DT because he would play vets on a team that is rebuilding. I wouldn't equate Millar with Payton. One is league average or slightly above at his position and the other is far below. I think you play the best players you can get each year. Sure I'd like a better 1B next year, but I'd rather go with hm over a guy like House.

[LookitsPuck]

Would you rather go with a guy like Payton instead of Knott? A guy like Bako rather than House?

I'd have loved to have seen Knott in LF, House doing backup catcher duties and alternating time at DH.

[Scribo]

There's still no difference in pointing to those limited stats. If the reason for keeping him is his solid MiL production, then use those stats. But using his 38 at-bats is just disingenuous.

It's this kind of self-selection that really frustrates me about a lot of the arguments made here at the OH: Luis Hernandez' first 38 ML at-bats (which were pretty damn good and included a home run, if I recall) don't count because his MiL stats don't bear them out. But J.R. House's 38 ML at-bats do count and are an accurate predictor because his MiL stats are more in line with them. All you're pointing to in this case is MiL stats, since the ML stats are (apparently) valid or not depending on MiL stats, so just say that.

Stats definitely can be misused, and they can be misleading when they're used too selectively. However we do have to be discriminating and decide which have some value and which are meaningless. Otherwise stats have no value.

Leaving aside Hernandez and House, let's say that two players of the same age put up .270/.350/.550 in their first 50 ML plate appearances. Now let's say we're trying to predict what they'll do in their next 200 PAs -- or whether they even deserve another 200 PAs.

Obviously, by themselves those 50 PAs don't say a whole lot.

But Player A has a total .230/.310/.340 in 1500 MiL PAs, including .219/.310/.310 coming off a full season of AA, while Player B has 1500 MiL PAs, .307/.402/.620, with .290/.380/.600 in his most recent AAA season.

In that case, Player A's first 50 PAs have "fluke" written all over them. There is virtually no chance that he continues that pace over his next 200 PAs.

Player B is a different story. His first 50 PAs are still just 50 PAs, but they're starting to look as if they might be meaningful: a part of a pattern, something that he might well continue if he is given another 200 appearances. It is, at least tentatively, a predictor. Player A's definitely is not.

[LookitsPuck]

To sum it up: Hernandez != good minor leaguer, so his at bats at the ML level are most likely likable to a flash in a pan.

House = good minor leaguer, so his at bats at the ML level are usually a predictor.

Word up.

[NewMarketSean]

This was my initial response to thread, not to you specifically:

The only way I would rather watch a career MiL play over Millar, would be if he were better. Most of the time they aren't. For every Cust there are 2-300 Ed Rodgers' or Larry Bigbies. I think if we have some good role player types next year they will get playing time. I hardly think MacP would hire a manager who only plays vets, if he intended to get younger and he's done nothing to indicate that that's not what he intends.

How am I strongly disagreeing with you? Do you think the Cust's are the rule and not the exception? Do you really believe MacP hired DT because he would play vets on a team that is rebuilding. I wouldn't equate Millar with Payton. One is league average or slightly above at his position and the other is far below. I think you play the best players you can get each year. Sure I'd like a better 1B next year, but I'd rather go with hm over a guy like House.

But you don't know that they are better right off the bat!!! Finding out is the whole point!!! AAAAAARGH!!!!!

[El Gordo]

But you don't know that they are better right off the bat!!! Finding out is the whole point!!! AAAAAARGH!!!!!

Why don't you answer my question instead of picking one point to belabor. How am I disagreeing with you about Cust, Millar, and DT in my initial post? What MiL players do we have now or did we have last year that looked like they would be better than Millar. I think you are saying that any young guy (meaning under 30) is a better bet than any vet. If that is what you mean then I do disagree. Some are and some aren't. I wouldn't think House's MiL numbers for example would justify playing him over Millar.

[Scribo]

To sum it up: Hernandez != good minor leaguer, so his at bats at the ML level are most likely likable to a flash in a pan.

House = good minor leaguer, so his at bats at the ML level are usually a predictor.

Word up.

Did I miss something?

When did Luis Hernandez become a good minor league hitter? One decent season at High A, age 20. Nothing much before, and nothing since.

[Sports Guy]

Why don't you answer my question instead of picking one point to belabor. How am I disagreeing with you about Cust, Millar, and DT in my initial post? What MiL players do we have now or did we have last year that looked like they would be better than Millar. I think you are saying that any young guy (meaning under 30) is a better bet than any vet. If that is what you mean then I do disagree. Some are and some aren't. I wouldn't think House's MiL numbers for example would justify playing him over Millar.

Knott or House could be better than Millar...No question about that. Would they definitely be better? Who knows...The potential is there.

Plus, you have to wonder if Millar starts a big decline at any point as well.

[TGO]

Did I miss something?

When did Luis Hernandez become a good minor league hitter? One decent season at High A, age 20. Nothing much before, and nothing since.

He said "!= good minor leaguer" with != being shorthand for not equal to.

[TinCup]

Why don't you answer my question instead of picking one point to belabor. How am I disagreeing with you about Cust, Millar, and DT in my initial post? What MiL players do we have now or did we have last year that looked like they would be better than Millar. I think you are saying that any young guy (meaning under 30) is a better bet than any vet. If that is what you mean then I do disagree. Some are and some aren't. I wouldn't think House's MiL numbers for example would justify playing him over Millar.

At the same time, what harm would it have done to at least try and see what a guy like House could have done instead of Millar? Would we have lost even more games? The point being made in more than just the tea leaves is this team has made a penchant of playing league average journeymen that few if any other teams would employ as opposed to taking a real earnest flyer on the Knotts and Houses of this world.

[Scribo]

He said "!= good minor leaguer" with != being shorthand for not equal to.

Okay, thanks for that.

Wasn't familiar with the shorthand.

[mefogus]

I feel like I've read this thread before.... before... before... before...

-m

[El Gordo]

Knott or House could be better than Millar...No question about that. Would they definitely be better? Who knows...The potential is there.

Plus, you have to wonder if Millar starts a big decline at any point as well.

If we are taliking about last year when Millar was coming off an .811 OPS year with a high OBP, it's a pretty big gamble to play a guy like House who might be better, but most likely not, for a season or two considering his age, 28. And now since we are rebuilding a guy like House or Knott would only make sense as a cheaper stop gap, if you can't get someone long term.

[DrungoHazewood]

I have to disagree here, or at least not care.

Quote of the thread, if you ask me. (So far, anyway...)

ps: I bet that keyboards connected to OH have typed the sequence, "J.R. House", more than all other keyboards that are now, or have ever been, in existence...

Not caring does seem to be a hallmark of everything about the modern day Baltimore Orioles, so the quote is fairly appropriate.

We wouldn't be obsessed with talented+flawed players here if the Orioles weren't so comically, consistently abysmal at handling them, and if we didn't have such good examples of brilliantly using these players in the team's own past.