Updated: Orioles acquire Taylor Teagarden

[andrewrickli]

If you don't understand his point after 360 posts, that's not on SG. I disagree with him, mostly because I think he's being a little bit fooled by nice looking stats at high A, rather than any real reports of stuff, but his point is well articulated and clearly understandable.

I understand his point. We didnt give up Mariano Rivera. We gave up Randy Henry. We can replace him.

[TakebackOPACY]

If you don't understand his point after 360 posts, that's not on SG. I disagree with him, mostly because I think he's being a little bit fooled by nice looking stats at high A, rather than any real reports of stuff, but his point is well articulated and clearly understandable.

I agree. I get his point. His point is clear. And there is at least some level of validity to it. Funny thing is, I think he'd say the part I bolded above shows that you don't totally get his point. (I'm sure you do; I just think you didn't feel like drawing your post out to several paragraphs to explain how you 'get it'.)

[EagleOriole]

But why overpay for him?

As I have said, I don't care that they traded Henry and I am glad they added TT. I agree with everyone who talks about his POTENTIAL to be one of the better back up C in baseball. He has a pedigree in the minors and was very highly rated just a few years ago.

That is the type of guy we should take a shot for.

But to give up as much as we did? That's where I(and a few others) have a problem with it.

You say he is a C prospect...So what? Most relief prospects are B-/C+ prospects...It doesn't make them less valuable or a poor prospect but since they will be role players, they just don't get high grades like every day players or starters will get.

That doesn't take anything away from Henry, his solid MiL numbers, his age or anything like that.

And while I like TT, I don't like him enough to trade a decent prospect PLUS another player for him. He isn't that good.

This seems to me to be a situation where the Rangers took advantage of Buck, knowing he liked and wanted TT.

I guess we will see down the road...you said yourself that TT has a strong pedigree and some believe he will be among top back-ups....guess the O's needed to give up a decent arm.

Again, I don't know how this deal works out in the end...probably none of the players have a big impact. I guess I will trust Buck on it...that is all I was saying.

[Sports Guy]

If you don't understand his point after 360 posts, that's not on SG. I disagree with him, mostly because I think he's being a little bit fooled by nice looking stats at high A, rather than any real reports of stuff, but his point is well articulated and clearly understandable.

Goldstein said he commands his fastball well and it has good velocity and sink.

Its obvious that he has good control and sink based on his stats.

If the velocity and command are there, then I am very excited. Fastball command is the biggest issue facing the Orioles pitching.

[MikeAD]

I guess we will see down the road...you said yourself that TT has a strong pedigree and some believe he will be among top back-ups....guess the O's needed to give up a decent arm.

Again, I don't know how this deal works out in the end...probably none of the players have a big impact. I guess I will trust Buck on it...that is all I was saying.

Again, its not about the players involved here, its just this isn't a way to do business. Prospects like Henry are guys that sweeten the pot when we make big deals, or are combined with another guy for a good talent. PTBNLs or guys out of options are ones you trade for a backup catcher who doesn't really have a spot on another team's MLB roster.

[LookinUp]

Goldstein said he commands his fastball well and it has good velocity and sink.

Its obvious that he has good control and sink based on his stats.

If the velocity and command are there, then I am very excited. Fastball command is the biggest issue facing the Orioles pitching.

You are, no doubt, good at using stats to profile the types of players we should want on our teams. I'm not discounting your case. I just think it's not supported by quite enough context.

I read about 10 prospect lists and he's on none of them until the 20's.

I see you pointing to exactly one report, from a guy who's hit and miss at best on the details of organizational prospects, and latching on. I don't see any other actual scouting types saying his stuff is even plus in any regard.

I see a guy who was drafted without high pedigree, often injured, and now for one season pitching to results that many are predicting represent his upside.

I see an injury prone player whose value is higher now than it's ever been.

I see decent, but frankly pedestrian K rates that will almost certainly diminish a little as he progresses.

Even with the Goldstein blurb, it reminds me of what Stotle used to say about Britton, which was pointing out the difficult of over reliance on a sinker. As you advance, hitters simply won't swing at that down in the zone pitch unless it truly is plus or plus plus. Without secondaries to complement a decent but not great sinker, his stuff seems prime to flame out at some level below solid major league contributor. I really think his odds of actually becoming a meaningful reliever are quite low.

On the other hand, I don't think that Teagarden is someone that you can just pick off the waiver wire. He's not far from a starting caliber catcher. His plus defense is very valuable and he brings some power to the lineup when he's in. It's true his bat doesn't play as a starter at this point, but that's why he's a back-up. I think this guy is a little better than most backup catchers, which gives us less hesitation about giving Wieters more time off. We got a good backup who's cheap and under control for the next few years. This is exactly what we should want in a back-up catcher. I know you agree with that, but I think we disagree on how many of these guys are readily available.

So, my valuation of Henry just isn't as positive as yours and my valuation of Teagarden is, I think, a little higher than yours.

[Sports Guy]

You are, no doubt, good at using stats to profile the types of players we should want on our teams. I'm not discounting your case. I just think it's not supported by quite enough context.

I read about 10 prospect lists and he's on none of them until the 20's.

I see you pointing to exactly one report, from a guy who's hit and miss at best on the details of organizational prospects, and latching on. I don't see any other actual scouting types saying his stuff is even plus in any regard.

I see a guy who was drafted without high pedigree, often injured, and now for one season pitching to results that many are predicting represent his upside.

I see an injury prone player whose value is higher now than it's ever been.

I see decent, but frankly pedestrian K rates that will almost certainly diminish a little as he progresses.

Even with the Goldstein blurb, it reminds me of what Stotle used to say about Britton, which was pointing out the difficult of over reliance on a sinker. As you advance, hitters simply won't swing at that down in the zone pitch unless it truly is plus or plus plus. Without secondaries to complement a decent but not great sinker, his stuff seems prime to flame out at some level below solid major league contributor. I really think his odds of actually becoming a meaningful reliever are quite low.

On the other hand, I don't think that Teagarden is someone that you can just pick off the waiver wire. He's not far from a starting caliber catcher. His plus defense is very valuable and he brings some power to the lineup when he's in. It's true his bat doesn't play as a starter at this point, but that's why he's a back-up. I think this guy is a little better than most backup catchers, which gives us less hesitation about giving Wieters more time off. We got a good backup who's cheap and under control for the next few years. This is exactly what we should want in a back-up catcher. I know you agree with that, but I think we disagree on how many of these guys are readily available.

So, my valuation of Henry just isn't as positive as yours and my valuation of Teagarden is, I think, a little higher than yours.

And I have explained why it doesn't matter that he isn't in the top 20. MR/set up prospects don't usually get any higher than 15 or so and most of them are in that 18-25 range. The role player type guys, guys who aren't starters or everyday players(or have the possibility of being one) are always down on the lists.

[ccbird]

I don;t know if this was posted in the this thread I've skimmed it and haven't read the last few pages but some national baseball guy apparently tweeted that the PTBNL is a choice of 4 guys eligible for the Rule 5 draft. We should be able to narrow the list down pretty easily. I know Miclat name was thrown around early as the PTBNL and he is Rule 5 eligible. That would be my guess.

[Traveler]

How does the PTBNL work, is there a small group that the other team can pick and if so, how is that group determined?

[ccbird]

Here are our the Rule 5 eligible guys from our organizaton:

Tim Bascom (27) RHP

Eddie Gamboa (27) RHRP – Above-Average 87-91 MPH Sinker, Solid Cut Fastball, Average Changeup; Polished Pitcher with Plus Command; 2.90 ERA, 0.94 WHIP in 80.2 IP between NYPL and Eastern League in ’11

Tyler Henson (24) OF/3B – Athletic Outfielder with Above-Average Arm, Solid Speed and Defense; Career .263/.322/.387

John Hester (28) C – .816 Career OPS; 40 PB, 28% CS% in 378 GS (MiLB) at Catcher

Steve Johnson (24) RHP – 4.33 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 5.56 ERA at AAA in ’11

Caleb Joseph (25) C – Career .259/.321/.401; Above-Average Defender with Career 32% CS%, 34 PB 320 GS; Improved CS% Last Three Years.

Cole McCurry (26) LHRP – Polished Lefty; Career 3.44 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.91 K/BB

Luis Lebron (27) RHRP – 91-97 MPH FB, Plus Slider; Inconsistent Command, Oft-Injured; Had TJ Surgery in ’09

Greg Miclat (24) SS – .957 FP% at SS, .262/.344/.324; .718 OPS, 50 SB at AA in ’11; Switch-Hitting Slap-Hitter with Above-Average Speed. Quick Footwork at Short but Fringy Arm Strength

Wynn Pelzer (25) RHRP – Plus 91-95 MPH Fastball with Good Movement; Above-Average Slider; Show-Me Change; inconsistent Mechanics and Command; Potential MLB Set-Up Man

Billy Rowell (23) 3B/OF – Selected in 1st Round (9th Overall) in ’06;

Brandon Waring (26) 3B/1B – .261/.339/.492; Has hit 20+ HR Annually Since ’07

[The Rick]

The outrage on this board when DD and company identify a "top" prospect not likely to have MLB success and trade that piece for a useful piece is going to be insane.

[The Rick]

And I have explained why it doesn't matter that he isn't in the top 20. MR/set up prospects don't usually get any higher than 15 or so and most of them are in that 18-25 range. The role player type guys, guys who aren't starters or everyday players(or have the possibility of being one) are always down on the lists.

Isn't that because #3-4-5 SP prospect types could still end up being better MR/set up guys if the SP thing doesn't pan out?

[orioles119]

The outrage on this board when DD and company identify a "top" prospect not likely to have MLB success and trade that piece for a useful piece is going to be insane.

Such is life on the OH.

[Sports Guy]

Isn't that because #3-4-5 SP prospect types could still end up being better MR/set up guys if the SP thing doesn't pan out?

Right.

Henry's ceiling, in terms of his overall value, is limited.

By that I mean, even if he becomes a dynamite set up guy, he will still only be a guy that is what JJ was to us this past season.

Now, that has a lot of value to a team, especially at no money but in terms of looking at it from a WAR perspective, its not that high.

Your starting pitchers and everyday players carry much more value in that regards, so those guys are ranked ahead of these types of players.

I would say this though...I like the chances of Henry being a ML contributor more than probably at least half of the guys ranked ahead of him.

For example, I think we can all agree that upside for Xavier Avery is higher than Henry...but I think there is a better chance of Henry being a contributor on a ML team compared to Avery.

[TGO]

I don;t know if this was posted in the this thread I've skimmed it and haven't read the last few pages but some national baseball guy apparently tweeted that the PTBNL is a choice of 4 guys eligible for the Rule 5 draft. We should be able to narrow the list down pretty easily. I know Miclat name was thrown around early as the PTBNL and he is Rule 5 eligible. That would be my guess.

I would think the list is probably Miclat and a few pitchers, maybe Johnson, Pelzer, Gamboa or something like that. I hope McCurry and Joseph are not on the list.