Will Duquette trade Markakis?

[MrOrange82]

Hah ok lol that's what drinking and watching College football will do to you. I take everything literally as the airplane flies over my head.

lol...if it makes you feel any better, I knew that was a risky joke to make before I hit "post quick reply."

[gamer]

Jones is younger. Jones can lead a club (vocally). Jones is improving.

Marakis is older. Markakis isn't a leader. Markakis is declining.

Who do you like better again?

Markakis speaks when he needs to, being a leader doesn't boil down to how much you talk.

Yes Markakis is older, but its not like he's 35.

Yastrzemski hit 95 homeruns in his first six years, averaging 15.8 per season, then he hit 44 homeruns next year.

Markakis has hit 104 in his first six years, averaging 17.3.

Yastrzemski hit 227 doubles in his first six years, average of 37.8.

Markakis has hit 237 two baggers, average of 39.5.

Of course if you look at numbers like OBP Yastrzemski averaged .374 compare to Nicks .365, however if you look at their hits through 6 years; Kakes averages 179 compared to Yaz's 169 so Yaz's marginally higher OBP is probably due to the two more walks he accumulated through his first 6 years. Of course I'm sort of avid when it comes to analyzing stats so maybe none of that was relevant.

I'm not saying Kakes will hit 44 roundtrippers next year, but I'm just trying to say there's no way he's a lost cause. I would love if the Orioles could compete with Jones and Kakes they are both fun to watch and great players in their own rights. But to say Markakis will never return to form is unreasonable, in my humble opinion.

To make a long story short,,, lets go trade for Yaz

[SurhoffRules]

Markakis speaks when he needs to, being a leader doesn't boil down to how much you talk.

Yes Markakis is older, but its not like he's 35.

Yastrzemski hit 95 homeruns in his first six years, averaging 15.8 per season, then he hit 44 homeruns next year.

Markakis has hit 104 in his first six years, averaging 17.3.

Yastrzemski hit 227 doubles in his first six years, average of 37.8.

Markakis has hit 237 two baggers, average of 39.5.

Of course if you look at numbers like OBP Yastrzemski averaged .374 compare to Nicks .365, however if you look at their hits through 6 years; Kakes averages 179 compared to Yaz's 169 so Yaz's marginally higher OBP is probably due to the two more walks he accumulated through his first 6 years. Of course I'm sort of avid when it comes to analyzing stats so maybe none of that was relevant.

I'm not saying Kakes will hit 44 roundtrippers next year, but I'm just trying to say there's no way he's a lost cause. I would love if the Orioles could compete with Jones and Kakes they are both fun to watch and great players in their own rights. But to say Markakis will never return to form is unreasonable, in my humble opinion.

To make a long story short,,, lets go trade for Yaz

I like what your doing here and a lot of people have made the yaz comparison before but of your going to compare counting stats please near in mind that yaz's counting stats were accruEd in am era when offense was a little bit harder to come by. It's not exactly am apples to apples comparison.

[MrOrange82]

I like what your doing here and a lot of people have made the yaz comparison before but of your going to compare counting stats please near in mind that yaz's counting stats were accruEd in am era when offense was a little bit harder to come by. It's not exactly am apples to apples comparison.

That's gotten me curious...how does Yaz's era actually compare to the offensive deflation baseball has witnessed over the last couple of seasons?

[gamer]

I like what your doing here and a lot of people have made the yaz comparison before but of your going to compare counting stats please near in mind that yaz's counting stats were accruEd in am era when offense was a little bit harder to come by. It's not exactly am apples to apples comparison.

Fair enough, how could we make these two era's comparable im sure there's a way how?

[SurhoffRules]

Fair enough, how could we make these two era's comparable im sure there's a way how?

Several statistics attempt to do this already. one of the more common for offensive performances it's ops+. But if you're not a fan on the new metrics you can just useyour eyes and your own common sense. Look at the average numbers of doubles hits and homeruns that yazs peers had. When yaz was posting 40 double seasons it was just a little less common them when nick was. Granted I do love nick and think he will rebound, but I think the yaz comparisons are a bit overstated given his last two years

[bandy75]

Did Trea or I say anything about a MVP? No. However, Jones is a guy that you build around, while Markakis isn't. He hasn't and won't return to his 08 form, with the way he "works out" in the offseason.

We never said that Jones is going to be the next MVP, or HOFer. What Jones IS and WILL be is a GREAT guy to build your team around.

What has Markakis improved on since 2008? Actually, IIRC his walk rate was down this past year, no?

Markakis has had a lower fWAR combined for the past two years than Jones has had.

He's declining, while Jones is improving. This Nick Markakis is no longer the 2008 version.

And unlike Markakis, Jonesy is more of a leader and role model, with him taking his conditioning seriously, unlike Markakis who would rather hunt all winter. Jonesy also chews bubble gum and seeds, and not Skoal.

Can I assume with these quotes that you two prefer athletes who will keep themselves in shape?

[MrOrange82]

Can I assume with these quotes that you two prefer athletes who will keep themselves in shape?

Dude..."iceberg" is a shape...

[gamer]

Several statistics attempt to do this already. one of the more common for offensive performances it's ops+. But if you're not a fan on the new metrics you can just useyour eyes and your own common sense. Look at the average numbers of doubles hits and homeruns that yazs peers had. When yaz was posting 40 double seasons it was just a little less common them when nick was. Granted I do love nick and think he will rebound, but I think the yaz comparisons are a bit overstated given his last two years

Alright, my defenition of OPS+ was alittle of, thanks.

[SurhoffRules]

Alright, my definition of OPS+ was a little of, thanks.

What OPS+ attempts to do is to take a player's OPS and compare it to the league average OPS and then normalize it around 100 (which is where I think the stat losses appeal since no percentage base stat really revolves around the number 100 as an indicator of normalcy).

But anyway, what this means in practice is that if,and only if, you believe that On Base Percentage plus Slugging is a good metric for comparing player offensive performance that a person with a 120 OPS+ is 20 percent than better with the bat than a person with a league average OPS+ (always set at 100).

If you chose to accept the preconditions than what you can start to do is say that Yaz's OPS+ of 156 at age 24 was 56 percent better than his peers. This also means that Markakis OPS+ of 136 at age 25 was 26 percent than his peers. Working backwards from that Yaz's 154 hits, 45 doubles, 3 triples, and 20 HRs were 56 percent better than what his peers offered that season. Markakis's 182 hits, 48 doubles, 1 triple, and 20 HRs were only 36 percent better than his peers in that season. Although the raw numbers are relatively similar they are quite different when you consider the leagues that they played in.

I don't mean that to take away from either Yaz or Markakis, but I think at this point despite the similarities in their raw numbers is quite safe to say that by this point in their career's Yaz was a better player as compared to his peer than Markakis is.

[JTrea81]

Can I assume with these quotes that you two prefer athletes who will keep themselves in shape?

When Nick can put up a 5.0+ fWAR season multiple times and hit 35-40 HRs, he can be any shape that he wants to be.

[SurhoffRules]

When Nick can put up a 5.0+ fWAR season multiple times and hit 35-40 HRs, he can be any shape that he wants to be.

The thing I can't wrap my head around is how you keep putting all your eggs in the fWAR basket compared to the bWAR basket. According to bWAR Mr. Fielder has been worth 19.6 wins from his age 21 to 27 season. The "salary dump at best" Mr. Markakis has been worth 19.7 for his ages 22 to 27. I know you prefer fWAR to bWAR but I've never really seen you explain why so I'm tempted to believe you choose to because it suits your arguments.

[JTrea81]

The thing I can't wrap my head around is how you keep putting all your eggs in the fWAR basket compared to the bWAR basket. According to bWAR Mr. Fielder has been worth 19.6 wins from his age 21 to 27 season. The "salary dump at best" Mr. Markakis has been worth 19.7 for his ages 22 to 27. I know you prefer fWAR to bWAR but I've never really seen you explain why so I'm tempted to believe you choose to because it suits your arguments.

It's the difference. rWAR uses Total Zone for defensive value which is much less accurate than UZR. Also rWAR does not take into account FIP while fWAR does.

So IMO rWAR is less accurate for many things.

[SurhoffRules]

I'll amend that to say that there career fWAR is only different by a little over three wins. Granted Nick has a 100 some plate appearance advantage in that counting stat. But you're basically talking about a half win a year difference in fWAR spread out over 7 years. I don't get how that makes Fielder a far superior piece compared to Markakis even using your own favorite valuation metric.

[SurhoffRules]

It's the difference. rWAR uses Total Zone for defensive value which is much less accurate than UZR. Also rWAR does not take into account FIP while fWAR does.

So IMO rWAR is less accurate for many things.

This I understand but I don't really put a great weight in any defensive metric that WAR uses just yet...especially when applied to the relative weight of first baseman, which both WAR metrics tend to think is a less of factor than their offense at that position.