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Reyes May Sign Tonight With Marlins


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They are now reporting he signed for 6 years and 106 million pending a physical. A player I would like to have on the Orioles and have talked about for a couple of years but........way too much money for him. Hopefully they have motivators in this contract for him. A minimum games clause being #1 due to his missing a lot of games over the years. Hopefully he'll never hurt an ankle or knee on a slide and lose his speed. It's a huge part of his game. Hard to believe they were that desperate in Miami. Who's next for them? Wilson?, Buehrle? Pujols? Pujols would never see a change up or a slow curve with Reyes on base ahead of him. His RBI'S would improve with Reyes batting leadoff. Only 99 RBI'S with 37 HR'S. He needs better hitters batting 1st or 2nd. Did they over pay for Reyes as the key to getting Albert to go to Miami? I think they did. Will Albert go to South Beach? I say yes. They'll probably give him other perks and there is no sales tax in Florida.

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Free agent SS Jose Reyes agreed to sign a six-year deal with the Marlins on Sunday night, according to FOXSports.com. The contract is reported to be worth $106 million, and it does not include a no-trade clause. The deal will become final pending a physical.

No no-trade clause...too bad for him. I like the duration of the contract, but that's a lot of money for a guy with injury concerns.

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That is an insane contract.

Is it? Over the last five years he's been worth about 20 wins, maybe a little shy of that. So that's about 4 wins a season, and at current rates that's about

$18-20M a year. Over six years the Marlins would be justified in valuing him at 4, 3.5, 3, 2.5, 2, and 1.5 wins, for a total of 16.5 wins. At $5M per win that's $82.5M.

So you could argue that they're overpaying by about $3M a year. Or... you could argue that they think he's going to decline more slowly than that, and that he'll actually be worth 21 wins (that would be worth $106M). Or that salaries in baseball will inflate more quickly, and that $106M is about 16.5 wins, which would mean a win would be worth $6.5M. Or some combination of the last two.

It's probably something of an overpay, but it's not extreme. It's not even close to the Ryan Howard deal, or a theoretical 8/200 deal for Fielder.

So have they said who is going to move, Hanley or Reyes? The deal would probably look a bit worse if Reyes is now switching positions to one with a higher offensive expectation.

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Is it? Over the last five years he's been worth about 20 wins, maybe a little shy of that. So that's about 4 wins a season, and at current rates that's about

$18-20M a year. Over six years the Marlins would be justified in valuing him at 4, 3.5, 3, 2.5, 2, and 1.5 wins, for a total of 16.5 wins. At $5M per win that's $82.5M.

So you could argue that they're overpaying by about $3M a year. Or... you could argue that they think he's going to decline more slowly than that, and that he'll actually be worth 21 wins (that would be worth $106M). Or that salaries in baseball will inflate more quickly, and that $106M is about 16.5 wins, which would mean a win would be worth $6.5M. Or some combination of the last two.

It's probably something of an overpay, but it's not extreme. It's not even close to the Ryan Howard deal, or a theoretical 8/200 deal for Fielder.

So have they said who is going to move, Hanley or Reyes? The deal would probably look a bit worse if Reyes is now switching positions to one with a higher offensive expectation.

Plan is to move Hanley to 3b.

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Reported in the PB Post today that Hanley is "distraught" over having to make a position move. Loria thinks everything will work out fine. However, there is already speculation they may have to trade him.

Trading Hanley for Reyes and $111m is not a smart move. They'll work something out to keep Hanley there.

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