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I'm almost tempted to chase Pujols


Frobby

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It sounds like Pujols' contract is going to end up in the 10 year, $220 mm range. To me, that is dirt cheap for him. People are very focused on the fact that it's a 10-year deal , which obviously is long for a 32-year old player. To me, that misses the point -- Pujols easily could be worth $220 mm in the first 7 years of his deal, just as he was over the last 7. He could be worth 0 WAR the final three years and still make the $220 mm contract worth it.

I know Pujols had an "off year" in 2011 -- "only" a .907 OPS with 37 homers and 99 RBI. But I think that was due to the contract talks that swirled around him in spring training. Over the final 93 games, he was otherworldly -- 1.011 OPS with 29 HR and 71 RBI. In other words, he was Albert Pujols.

I really like his chances to exceed $220 mm in value over the next decade, even assuming some age-related decline and perhaps little or no value in the last year or two of the deal.

So, I am halfway tempted to see the Orioles get into the Pujols bidding now -- but no way I see it happening.

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I'd love to see the O's jump into the bidding with something like 8/220 (give him the same amount of money but faster), but we should really only do this if we are going to take the payroll to somewhere in excess of $130-140 million. We won't. So we shouldn't.

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I think Pujols wanted length more than anything else. That and a no-trade clause.
He wants to be the highest paid player ever.

He may reject my offer but he has a chance to earn in 7 years what these guys are offering for 10...and then he could perhaps make a little more money after that.

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I think Pujols wanted length more than anything else. That and a no-trade clause.

So, you'd sign a 10yr/ $220M contract before an 8yr/ $220M contract? That's 2 less years of golf. :D

Side note - How many productive 42yr olds have there been in the history of the game? Certainly none worth anywhere near $20M a year...

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He wants to be the highest paid player ever.

He may reject my offer but he has a chance to earn in 7 years what these guys are offering for 10...and then he could perhaps make a little more money after that.

I don't get this sense at all. My feeling all along is that he wanted to go back to the Cardinals if they would match the going rate, which they seem to have done.

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So, you'd sign a 10yr/ $220M contract before an 8yr/ $220M contract? That's 2 less years of golf. :D

Side note - How many productive 42yr olds have there been in the history of the game? Certainly none worth anywhere near $20M a year...

Barry Bonds was worth $19.3 in 2006 per Fangraphs. But he's an alien. :D

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His trend is not a positive one. He went from being a 8.5 or so WAR player to a 7.1 rWAR or 7.5 fWAR and then last year a 5.4 rWAR and a 5.1 fWAR.

I don't see much reason to be confident that he'll be worth around 200 million over his age 32-38 seasons.

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