Dave Cameron: Big Ticket Signings Don't Drive Attendance

[Roll Tide]

Star players = more wins, more wins = more attendance

You could make the argument that Angelos did this back in the mid 90s. It worked until he stopped doing it. 1 Star player deos not a winner make. The Orioles need several moves and keep adding each season based on what they can develop.

[JTrea81]

And many people already told you that all teams have negative WAR players and it isn't as simple as eliminating them from your roster.

The Orioles had more than any team in the AL East.

[GoldGlove21]

And many people already told you that all teams have negative WAR players and it isn't as simple as eliminating them from your roster.

This may be true, but it is not good when some of these negative WAR players are high draft picks who were touted as the silver lining moving forward. Just wait for Arrieta, Matusz, Tillman and Britton and were off. Our error was thinking that any more than 2 of those guys would be able to thrive in the rotation. I think that much of our rebuilding still lies in the hands of Brian Matusz. Building quality teams is tied to balance between hitting, pitching and defense. The Orioles are a decent hitting squad, but the young pitchers were well terrible as a whole. The Tigers were terrible with those young arms years ago and many of those pitchers turned it around so maybe we can have a bound back year. I just wouldn't plan my offseason around that happening.

[GoldGlove21]

The Orioles had more than any team in the AL East.

I am with you dude. WAR is very important if you look over a three year period and see that a guy on your team has combined to be worth as much as a replacement player while earning a good salary. The O's have made some poor decisions in terms of spending money. Instead of a $18M+ per year premium guy we will get two one-year rentals that total $15M and a reliefe pitcher for $4M+. I just do not get it, get the premium guy when you can and than fill in depth.

[HokieOrange]

The Orioles had more than any team in the AL East.

My point still remains. Your "Fun with WAR" post assumes you can simply remove these players and instantly the team is better. If this theory is applied to all teams, we're still quite behind. If you'd like to make the argument that Matusz isn't a negative WAR player but instead will be a positive, go ahead. I'd like to think a number of our players can improve upon last season and they'll need to or this team is destined for another rebuild.

Also, the fact that you cited your blog rather than the OH thread that got blasted as your "proof" is quite telling.

[JTrea81]

My point still remains. Your "Fun with WAR" post assumes you can simply remove these players and instantly the team is better. If this theory is applied to all teams, we're still quite behind. If you'd like to make the argument that Matusz isn't a negative WAR player but instead will be a positive, go ahead. I'd like to think a number of our players can improve upon last season and they'll need to or this team is destined for another rebuild.

Also, the fact that you cited your blog rather than the OH thread that got blasted as your "proof" is quite telling.

I didn't feel like finding the OH thread, as I knew where the other one was, and it's not a blog, but a message board.

I know that teams are going to have sub-replacement talent, but the Orioles are one of the teams that can afford it the least because they don't have enough WAR coming from their top players.

I do like the depth that Duquette is building. He's acquired some quality pieces to serve as Plan Bs or Cs instead of reacting to what happens during ST like MacPhail did when all he could find was Lugo when Roberts was known to be having back issues before ST ever started. Quality depth alone won't make us competitive, but it will help us keep wins instead of lose them with sub-replacement talent.

But he still needs to acquire that premium talent in order to compensate for the sub-replacement players that we will inevitably have.

[HokieOrange]

I didn't feel like finding the OH thread, as I knew where the other one was, and it's not a blog, but a message board.

I know that teams are going to have sub-replacement talent, but the Orioles are one of the teams that can afford it the least because they don't have enough WAR coming from their top players.

Oh, I'm aware that you think it's a message board, but it functions like a blog. You created it because all of your ideas got torn apart here and OA is a nice little fantasy land to live in. I get it.

Just because the Orioles can least afford negative WAR players changes nothing. The premise of the thread, even in la-la land, was that you can remove them and the team is instantly better. This is not the case and you know it -- find the OH thread if you need a reminder.

[DrungoHazewood]

Trea's "just remove the negative WAR players" theory is on his all-time top 10 most ludicrous ideas. He concocted it to try to convince the world that the 69-win Os were really almost a .500 team with this slight of hand, thus making his All In strategy less insane.

[JTrea81]

Oh, I'm aware that you think it's a message board, but it functions like a blog. You created it because all of your ideas got torn apart here and OA is a nice little fantasy land to live in. I get it.

Just because the Orioles can least afford negative WAR players changes nothing. The premise of the thread, even in la-la land, was that you can remove them and the team is instantly better. This is not the case and you know it -- find the OH thread if you need a reminder.

No I created the board so people could express their opinions with out being attacked to avoid messes like that Eveland thread.

And not all my ideas get "torn apart" although you seem to be the latest poster that wants to try to "challenge" me like it's some sort of sport.

Nobody deserves to be treated poorly for an opinion about the Orioles, no matter how far it is in "la-la land."

And the fact that the O's can't afford negative fWAR players is very real, and why you see Duquette trying to build depth at the ML level, so he doesn't have to rely on the Josh Bells or Brandon Snyders.

This core does have more talent than people think IMO, and that's why Duquette is not rebuilding.

[JTrea81]

Trea's "just remove the negative WAR players" theory is on his all-time top 10 most ludicrous ideas. He concocted it to try to convince the world that the 69-win Os were really almost a .500 team with this slight of hand, thus making his All In strategy less insane.

Because the only sane way of building a team of course is to go all homegrown and lose for a decade while you try to build the team the "right way?"

All other methods will never work, and all those teams except for Tampa who did it "right" all just managed to get lucky trying something else...

[Frobby]

This is already a 75 win team IMO as I've pointed out numerous times.

Unfortunately, the standings disagree. This team hasn't won 75 games in the last 7 years, and it hasn't won 70 in the last 5. So, as much as I manage to convince myself every year that the team could do better, sometimes you have to look at the cold facts.

Oh, and by the way, the O's have outperformed their pythagroean record the last two years. You could therefore argue that their record is better than their performance.

[JTrea81]

Unfortunately, the standings disagree. This team hasn't won 75 games in the last 7 years, and it hasn't won 70 in the last 5. So, as much as I manage to convince myself every year that the team could do better, sometimes you have to look at the cold facts.

Oh, and by the way, the O's have outperformed their pythagroean record the last two years. You could therefore argue that their record is better than their performance.

So a pitcher that loses 20 games and wins 5 isn't a good pitcher right, no matter if his FIP was 2.94?

After all if we are basing talent level on just wins and losses, then we've got to judge all talent that way.

The problem with this team has been the same for the past three years IMO. The FO refuses to have confidence it what it has built and therefore the players don't have confidence in the team and underperform.

[DrungoHazewood]

So a pitcher that loses 20 games and wins 5 isn't a good pitcher right, no matter if his FIP was 2.94?

After all if we are basing talent level on just wins and losses, then we've got to judge all talent that way.

The problem with this team has been the same for the past three years IMO. The FO refuses to have confidence it what it has built and therefore the players don't have confidence in the team and underperform.

The O's don't have a FIP of 2.94. They don't have more runs scored than allowed. They don't have a talented rotation, or bullpen. They don't have solid solutions at first, second, third, left, or DH. They're a bad team with some upside to be ok. Confidence and two premium players doesn't make that a 95-win team.

[DrungoHazewood]

Because the only sane way of building a team of course is to go all homegrown and lose for a decade while you try to build the team the "right way?"

All other methods will never work, and all those teams except for Tampa who did it "right" all just managed to get lucky trying something else...

Again, you're presenting us with false choices. It's not Tampa or the Yanks. It's a continuum of choices, and the good teams do what makes sense for them, at their point in time. You're the one who has a one-size-fits-all mentality, that the only way to win is to sign multiple high-end free agents right now. You're the one who contorts the facts to fit that plan no matter the applicability.

[DrungoHazewood]

Nobody deserves to be treated poorly for an opinion about the Orioles, no matter how far it is in "la-la land."

Yes, we should respect all opinions, even the ones that are demonstrably false or ludicrously unlikely.

If someone suggests that the best way for the O's to win is to use a field goal-kicking donkey in right field my response will be "that's an interesting solution, you've obviously though this through in meticulous detail, maybe it will work out."