Fan vs. PECOTA Projections

[square634]

Does anyone remember the thread during spring training that linked to a site that had fans predict the stats of each player on the roster? IIRC, it was a study of whether fan projections or PECOTA projections would be more accurate for the coming season. I was for some reason reminded of this by Frobby's Markakis thread, and I am curious about what the results were. Does anyone know if any data came out of that? I can't find the original thread...

[Frobby]

I don't remember that one. But I do remember a thread where I posted my projections for each Oriole compared to several systems such as ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James and others. A lot of other posters made their projections there, too. To my great annoyance, I can't find that thread anymore. It was called something like "Frobby vs. experts projection smackdown." If anyone else can resurrect it, I'd be very appreciative.

[square634]

I don't remember that one. But I do remember a thread where I posted my projections for each Oriole compared to several systems such as ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James and others. A lot of other posters made their projections there, too. To my great annoyance, I can't find that thread anymore. It was called something like "Frobby vs. experts projection smackdown." If anyone else can resurrect it, I'd be very appreciative.

Yeah, I remember those, too. I think your title is very close to accurate, so if it doesn't show up in the search, it probably is lost forever.

The one I'm referring to was IIRC started by Drungo with a link to something by Tom Tango. I could easily be wrong about that though.

[TGO]

I don't think Tom Tango has finished running his analyses yet. Here is his blog under the category "forecasting":

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/weblog/category/Forecasting/

Any update would be there, I think.

[tangotiger]

I am super behind on this. All I can say is that it's now my #1 priority for Jan, 08.

[tangotiger]

Adam Everett's glove and bat is good enough to be a MLB average player. If you've got a super great glove like that, or Mark Belanger, you can suffer with a very poor bat. A 600 OPS is pretty much the low point. But, he better have a super great glove.

[Sports Guy]

Tom,

I just want to say that you are the absolute best when it comes to this stuff. [/sucking up]

What are your feelings on the possibility of Luis Hernandez becoming the Orioles starting SS in 2008? I realize he only played 139 defensive innings at SS in 2007, but I have to admit that his RZR numbers look awfully good (almost Everett-ish) even for such a small data set.

I doubt that you're real familiar with him, but he definitely isn't known for his bat. If his 2008 defensive numbers are even close to his real ability, roughly how low do you think his offensive output would have to be to realistically maintain a spot in a MLB lineup. Bill James has him projected to post a 578 OPS (282 OBP/296 SLG) while BBHQ projects a 607 OPS (286/321).

Thanks

And you love this site?

LH has had 580 OPS's in AA and AAA in recent years...Maybe Tom knows but to justify carrying a 550-580 OPS guy, how great does that glove have to be?

[Sports Guy]

I want to ask the same thing every time I see you post one of BP's stats.

I don't love BP.

I believe this has been talked about in another thread.

No its not...I didn't see anything talking about an OPS as bad as I said and what kind of defense he would have to play to couteract that.

[tangotiger]

Here you go:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/how_bad_a_hitter_can_you_be_to_justify_a_great_glove/

[Sports Guy]

Here you go:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/how_bad_a_hitter_can_you_be_to_justify_a_great_glove/

Thank you for this.

So, if I read this correctly, Luis Hernandez would need to give us a 609 OPS and play Everett caliber defense for him to be worth it.

I see you used -.5 wins.

What exactly does that mean....Does that mean with a 609 OPS and great defense, that he is still not even worth 1 win?(just want to be clear)

If Luis Hernandez had a 610 OPS and played Everett level defense, how many wins is he worth to a team?

[Mackus]

If Luis Hernandez had a 610 OPS and played Everett level defense, how many wins is he worth to a team?

If Hernandez can provide Everett-level defense and have a 610 OPS, then I'll stop complaining about him being the starter. I'd still look to upgrade long-term, but that would be enough production for me to stop *****ing about getting a free upgrade.

Needless to say, I don't actually think he can provide either a 610 OPS or Everett-level defense, so I will continue to mercilessly bash Hernandez as a player, and probably as a person just for good measure. I just hate everything about who he chooses to be.

[now]

Here you go:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/how_bad_a_hitter_can_you_be_to_justify_a_great_glove/

Wow, thanks so much for providing this formula. It's amazing what a few well-chosen numbers can do to establish clarity -- 5 months and 5000 posts after the OH started debating this issue!

[RShack]

Here you go:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/how_bad_a_hitter_can_you_be_to_justify_a_great_glove/

The part that puzzles me is how you weighted good-D. I may be wrong, but as best I can tell, the only way you assigned any weight to defense is as follows:

2. Figure how much a Gold Glove is worth at each position, relative to the average at that position. I presumed +2.5 wins for 2B,SS,3B,CF, +2.0 for C,LF,RF and +1.5 for 1B. Again, you tell me.

I'm not sure why you did this. First off, Gold Glove is something of a dubious standard. Second off, I'm not sure why you presumed +2.5 wins and left it at that. Now, I'm sure that you know way more about this than I do (Really. I'm not being a smartass). But I would've thought that you'd care about how many balls they can get to, how many outs they create for the Bad Guys, how many bases they take away from the Bad Guys, stuff like that. Wouldn't that make more sense than just picking a number for "Gold Glove D"? Don't Gold Glovers vary a lot in how much D they actually contribute, in terms of how much they cost the Bad Guys in terms of outs, and runs, and total bases, and stuff like that? It seems that you're being rather precise about offense (in terms of OBP and SLG) but are being very vague and general about defensive contribution. Am I wrong about this?

[now]

Needless to say, I don't actually think he can provide either a 610 OPS or Everett-level defense, so I will continue to mercilessly bash Hernandez as a player, and probably as a person just for good measure. I just hate everything about who he chooses to be.

Useful to say (again), it's reasonable to think that LH might approach his 2007 ML performance (.662 OPS, near Everett-level defense), so I will continue to shamelessly root for Hernandez as a player, and probably as a person just for good measure. I just love everything about what he represents, proving his doubters wrong and sparking his team to a winning record against all odds.

[Sports Guy]

Useful to say (again), it's reasonable to think that LH might approach his 2007 ML performance (.662 OPS, near Everett-level defense), so I will continue to shamelessly root for Hernandez as a player, and probably as a person just for good measure. I just love everything about what he represents, proving his doubters wrong and sparking his team to a winning record against all odds.

Its not reasonable to expect that at all.