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Fan vs. PECOTA Projections


square634

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If we did get this league-average performance at SS for minimum salary, it's a bargain, with saved resources available for above-average production at other positions. The key to having an average-or-below SS is leveraging the salary advantage to boost the roster elsewhere.

It sure beats wasting $4-8 million on way-below-average production, a la Payton, Gibbons, Baez.

Agreed, league-average production for league-minimum salary is incredibly valuable at any position.

That said, I highly, highly doubt that Hernandez is capable of league-average performance. I don't think he's likely to post over a .600 OPS, and I think he's even less likely to approach Everett-level defense.

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Agreed, league-average production for league-minimum salary is incredibly valuable at any position.

That said, I highly, highly doubt that Hernandez is capable of league-average performance. I don't think he's likely to post over a .600 OPS, and I think he's even less likely to approach Everett-level defense.

Right...I see him as a 550ish OPS guy who will have above average defense but not Everett/Tulo defense.

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I'd love to see Hernandez be able to hold his own with the stick. He looks pretty decent at SS to me. I've always been a fan of defense and would much rather watch a 2-1 game than a 10-8 game (actually I'd rather see a 10-1 game, but anyway...) Unfortunantely, I don't see this happening with his track record (although he is still young!) Therefore the whole discussion seems kinda pointless.

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Right...I see him as a 550ish OPS guy who will have above average defense but not Everett/Tulo defense.

SG, I'm wondering how you arrive at your expectation, which sits on the low end of the available evidence...

RZR: "almost Everett-ish" (1970's phrase)

OPS:

Bill James: .578

BBHQ: .607

6-year Minor League (age 18-23): .624

Spring Training (age 20-22): .623

Major League (age 23, 69 AB): .662

Dominican Winter League: .564

SG: .550

:confused:

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SG, I'm wondering how you arrive at your expectation, which sits on the low end of the available evidence...

RZR: "almost Everett-ish" (1970's phrase)

OPS:

Bill James: .578

BBHQ: .607

6-year Minor League (age 18-23): .624

Spring Training (age 20-22): .623

Major League (age 23, 69 AB): .662

Dominican Winter League: .564

SG: .550

:confused:

BBHQ is way too high.

His career OPS in AAA, in a small sample size and 2 stops, is around 500.

592 AA OPS last year and it was barely above 600 in the 2 AA seasons before that.

Dominican league was very low.

His OPS may be 570ish.....I think it falls between 550-580.

Either way, it is pretty pathetic.

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BBHQ is way too high.

His career OPS in AAA, in a small sample size and 2 stops, is around 500.

592 AA OPS last year and it was barely above 600 in the 2 AA seasons before that.

Dominican league was very low.

His OPS may be 570ish.....I think it falls between 550-580.

Either way, it is pretty pathetic.

Once you get below .600, its almost hard to get a whole lot lower, I think. One thing about LH - he will make contact with the baseball. His K rate has been pretty constant at every level and he only K's about once every 7-7.5 AB. He's had no power at any level so you know that's not going to change. So I don't think his major league OPS is going to be below his minor league OPS by a huge margin. High .500's, I'd guess.

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Once you get below .600, its almost hard to get a whole lot lower, I think. One thing about LH - he will make contact with the baseball. His K rate has been pretty constant at every level and he only K's about once every 7-7.5 AB. He's had no power at any level so you know that's not going to change. So I don't think his major league OPS is going to be below his minor league OPS by a huge margin. High .500's, I'd guess.
I agree, I think 575 +/1 10-20 OPS points is a pretty safe bet..
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I don't really think there are many LH fans out there, SG. I just don't think there are as many people who object to him as strongly as you do. The way you talk about him, you'd think he'd offended your mother or something ;)

IMO, this team isn't going to do anything competitive in 2008 so I don't really care if LH is out there or not. Sure, I'd like us to deal Bedard and Roberts and net us a real SS prospect, but I don't know if Bedard will be traded at all (I don't think he will) and I don't know if a Roberts trade will give us that.

I hate to chalk up 2008 as a failed year but I Can't see it as anything but that right now. We've stomached a decade of pathetic baseball already, I'm sure we'll be able to stomach Luis Hernandez for a season.

IMO, he's not worth debating much, anyway.

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Not to pick on Frobby or Wildcard (or even myself the year I did projections), but it is relatively easy to do projections for your favorite team.

Not as easy as I thought. In 2007 I had the O's at 805 runs plus or minus 25 as I recall. I did much better in 2006. In my defense, I believe all but 3 O's hitters underperformed their PECOTAs last year.

I like your analysis of LH in this post and I think your projection and likely range is right on the money.

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I don't really think there are many LH fans out there.

I'm too much of a Tejada diehard to be classified as a Luis Hernandez fan, but due to all the animosity directed against the kid here, my dream 2008 Orioles season goes something like this:

1) Luis Hernandez puts up a .274/.299/.282 (.581 OPS) batting line playing every day for an O's team than shocks the world by playing 84-78 ball.

2) Trembley credits little Looie for solidifying the defense, and Bedard (yep, still here), Cabrera, Guthrie & Loewen all win between 13-18 games).

3) Non-sabermetric-friendly media types across the country credit Luis Hernandez with turning the Orioles into winners, while the OH has to go to greater bandwith to hold all the threads & posts full of formulas to show it just can't be so.

*********************************************

PS - one pet peeve - Luis Hernandez is from Venezuela. He's playing in the Venezuelan winter league.

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I'm too much of a Tejada diehard to be classified as a Luis Hernandez fan, but due to all the animosity directed against the kid here, my dream 2008 Orioles season goes something like this:

1) Luis Hernandez puts up a .274/.299/.282 (.581 OPS) batting line playing every day for an O's team than shocks the world by playing 84-78 ball.

2) Trembley credits little Looie for solidifying the defense, and Bedard (yep, still here), Cabrera, Guthrie & Loewen all win between 13-18 games).

3) Non-sabermetric-friendly media types across the country credit Luis Hernandez with turning the Orioles into winners, while the OH has to go to greater bandwith to hold all the threads & posts full of formulas to show it just can't be so.

This could happen, IF

- The pitchers pretty much all stayed healthy all year

- Someone stepped up as the 5th starter

- Luke Scott put up an .850+ OPS while playing more or less full time

- A couple of guys (say R. Hernandez and Huff) had big bounce-back seasons.

The stars would really need to align for all this to happen.

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3) Non-sabermetric-friendly media types across the country credit Luis Hernandez with turning the Orioles into winners, while the OH has to go to greater bandwith to hold all the threads & posts full of formulas to show it just can't be so.

That'd be hilarious. I'd love to see that, actually. As much as I find the sabermetric sect an interesting one, nothing would make me laugh harder than seeing LH stick it to them while they scramble like crazy to justify that he's still a cancer to the team despite the fact that they're above .500.

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This could happen, IF

- The pitchers pretty much all stayed healthy all year

- Someone stepped up as the 5th starter

- Luke Scott put up an .850+ OPS while playing more or less full time

- A couple of guys (say R. Hernandez and Huff) had big bounce-back seasons.

The stars would really need to align for all this to happen.

If we didn't trade Bedard we still might trade BRob for Murton, Gallegher etc. Or we make a trade with Pitts. for McLouth and Wilson. That would be a better team than last season's by far.

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(as any Orioles fan knows) he had an artificially high OPS at the MLB level in 2007 - that makes a big difference.

...

And [still] he ends up at .578.

Nice work, Bill J. -- er, 1970. ;)

BTW, I had stopped watching most of the games by the time LH was starting, so I don't have a firsthand opinion on the reliability of his BA ... but what do you mean by "artificially"? I remember some were posting about his "cheap" and "fluke" hits -- is that it? Or did he have a particularly "lucky" BABIP?

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Nice work, Bill J. -- er, 1970. ;)

BTW, I had stopped watching most of the games by the time LH was starting, so I don't have a firsthand opinion on the reliability of his BA ... but what do you mean by "artificially"? I remember some were posting about his "cheap" and "fluke" hits -- is that it? Or did he have a particularly "lucky" BABIP?

His BABIP was .328, league average is usually in the .290-.300 range, it was .303 in 2007.
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