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O's Sign Endy Chavez

Greg

By Greg
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Chavez is a decent backup 4th outfielder but I'm not how much of an upgrade at this stage in his career he'd be over Matt Angle. I mean he's certainly got more pop and experience, but Angle is certainly a better base stealer and most likely a better defender in center field. Too much was made of Angle's showing in left field but there's nothing to suggest that with more experience playing the position that Angle won't be a plus defender out there as well.

As long as Chavez isn't asked to be more than a 200 at bat a year 4th outfielder he'll be fine. If he ends up in any kind of real platoon I'll be shocked and disappointed.

I agree Angle can probably adjust to LF, but Chavez is very good out there and I think he is the better defender in LF for now. Angle's probably better in CF, but whoever is the 4th OF figures to play more in LF than CF.

Last year, Chavez had 274 PA, whereas Pie and Angle combined had 270. I'm figuring Chavez gets fewer than that with the Orioles, because Reimold will be on the team from opening day.

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LA2 Hangout Grand Counsel

LA2

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What Chavez can do offensively far outweighs whatever minor superiority Angle has defensively (and I'm not even sure that Angle is better with the glove in the first place).

A scenario in which I can see Buck giving Chavez more at-bats is if Roberts doesn't return to form, Andino regresses, and we need a lead-off hitter. Can't see us continuing to waste Hardy's power there, although I wd like to see us trying Reimold out.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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What Chavez can do offensively far outweighs whatever minor superiority Angle has defensively (and I'm not even sure that Angle is better with the glove in the first place).

A scenario in which I can see Buck giving Chavez more at-bats is if Roberts doesn't return to form, Andino regresses, and we need a lead-off hitter. Can't see us continuing to waste Hardy's power there, although I wd like to see us trying Reimold out.

Chavez was .7 oWAR and .0 dWAR last season (274PA)

Angle was .4 oWAR and .0 dWAR last season (95PA)

Seems like pretty comparable production last season. Angle made serious hay out of his walks and stolen bases.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Chavez was .7 oWAR and .0 dWAR last season (274PA)

Angle was .4 oWAR and .0 dWAR last season (95PA)

Seems like pretty comparable production last season. Angle made serious hay out of his walks and stolen bases.

He also made serious hay out of reaching base on an error 5 times in 95 PA. That was worth 0.3 rWAR, compared to the total 0.4 rWAR he accrued. Obviously, having good speed has some impact on reaching base via error, but he's not going to do that in 5% of his plate appearances in the long haul.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Chavez was .7 oWAR and .0 dWAR last season (274PA)

Angle was .4 oWAR and .0 dWAR last season (95PA)

Seems like pretty comparable production last season. Angle made serious hay out of his walks and stolen bases.

About half of his above-replacement value came from stealing 11 bases and only being caught once. I have my doubts that will carry over, nor will he likely reach base via errors once every 19 PAs (his run value of ROEs was 3, which was one off of leading the major leagues!). And when those two marks come back to earth he'll need to hit far better than his .177/.293/.266 slash line.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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He also made serious hay out of reaching base on an error 5 times in 95 PA. That was worth 0.3 rWAR, compared to the total 0.4 rWAR he accrued. Obviously, having good speed has some impact on reaching base via error, but he's not going to do that in 5% of his plate appearances in the long haul.

Actually, I don't think speed is all that positively correlated with ROEs. Looking over the list of leaders in ROE runs created 21 of the 27 players who were at 3 or 4 runs were right handed (hit more balls to the side of the infield farthest from first base), only 7 stole 10+ bases, but 10 had 15+ homers. I think ROEs are about equally dependent on being right handed, being fast, hitting the ball hard, and being lucky.

In any case, I'm very confident Angle is not reaching on errors 5% of the time going forward.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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He also made serious hay out of reaching base on an error 5 times in 95 PA. That was worth 0.3 rWAR, compared to the total 0.4 rWAR he accrued. Obviously, having good speed has some impact on reaching base via error, but he's not going to do that in 5% of his plate appearances in the long haul.
About half of his above-replacement value came from stealing 11 bases and only being caught once. I have my doubts that will carry over, nor will he likely reach base via errors once every 19 PAs (his run value of ROEs was 3, which was one off of leading the major leagues!). And when those two marks come back to earth he'll need to hit far better than his .177/.293/.266 slash line.

True and true, mind you I did mention the walks and the steals, the errors I had forgotten about.

On the other hand it is unlikely for a 34 year old Endy Chavez who has a career OPS of .686 to put up a .749 like he did last year. In fact last season was his first oWAR over 0 since 2006 and he has only had four seasons of oWAR over 0 in his career. (oddly enough he has hit 0.0 twice).

I do think Angle has a better chance of helping the team defensively.

The move doesn't bother me, I have no issue with Angle sitting at Norfolk until needed. I certainly don't think the difference between the two will make a tangible difference in how the season unfolds. I just don't think it is cut and dried that Chavez will be overwhelmingly better offensively.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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True and true, mind you I did mention the walks and the steals, the errors I had forgotten about.

On the other hand it is unlikely for a 34 year old Endy Chavez who has a career OPS of .686 to put up a .749 like he did last year. In fact last season was his first oWAR over 0 since 2006 and he has only had four seasons of oWAR over 0 in his career. (oddly enough he has hit 0.0 twice).

I do think Angle has a better chance of helping the team defensively.

The move doesn't bother me, I have no issue with Angle sitting at Norfolk until needed. I certainly don't think the difference between the two will make a tangible difference in how the season unfolds. I just don't think it is cut and dried that Chavez will be overwhelmingly better offensively.

It would be crazy to expect Chavez to post a .749 OPS this year. I'd be pleased if he's over .700, considering his career performance. But even at or near .686, he's probably better than Angle, who I think would be hard-pressed to put up .650. And, IMO Chavez will be the better defensive replacement in the corner OF spots, especially LF, where most of his action is likely to come.

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LA2 Hangout Grand Counsel

LA2

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Chavez was .7 oWAR and .0 dWAR last season (274PA)

Angle was .4 oWAR and .0 dWAR last season (95PA)

Seems like pretty comparable production last season. Angle made serious hay out of his walks and stolen bases.

That's cute :) -- But I'll take 2011 stats of .301/.323/.426/.749 OPS/96 OPS+ over .177/.293/.266/.559 OPS/57 OPS+ any day.

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