Keith Law takes another shot at the O's

[El Gordo]

Ensina was pretty clear that the spending has symbolic value, so I agree with that completely. I tend to be between you and Stotle on this, I think. I don't mind the outlay, though I don't like it for the sake of Int'l spending. If he's what they say he is, mid-to-upper 80s with potential plus secondaries, that seems the equivalent of taking a flier on a late-round overslot in the Rule 4.

I simply can't believe Law's assessment is accurate. And, if he was objective, I tend to believe he'd doubt it as well. Would be nice to know from whence it came, and whether he had it verified/backed up by a third-party.

Maybe it came from a disgruntled reassigned O's scout. :rolleyestf:

[Stotle]

So because everyone in the organization was new at some point and then contributed to the 14 straight losing seasons that the new guys don't get the benefit of the doubt even though their resumes all bring them from successful teams? The Orioles haven't had a hitting coordinator in this organization since Julio Vinas and if you ask around, he wasn't very highly thought of by anyone other than David Stockstill.

The Orioles haven't had a consistent message for their pitchers for as long as I've been covering them. The pitching "coordinators" over the years have either not had the power to truly teach one message or didn't communicate very well with the pitching coaches and certainly not to the pitchers. I know way too many stories of pitchers who received very little feedback throughout their careers unless you think sitting down and going over the "pitch count statistics" after starts is feedback. Now whether the new guys brought in will make a difference remains to be seen, but they all have track records in good organizations.

At the end of the day, new is better because what the Orioles had wasn't working. There are good people in the Orioles scouting and development, and most of them would tell you they are happy with the changes because it wasn't working.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. At least now we can't say the Orioles are not trying something new.

I'm sure the snarkiness will never go away until the Orioles start to win again, and I fully understand that, but too many comments are being blamed on things prior to DD taking over. I'm not about to erect a statue in his honor, but to me he's taking the right steps in order to change the organization's direction. Only winning at the major league level will ever fully confirm that DD made the right choices, but in the end, I can at least see he was willing to try something other than the same old same old that didn't work.

I have no doubt the team has made some good hires.

I'm glad you are able to be optimistic about the direction of the organization. If things have greatly turned around then I'm sure it will be evident in a few weeks when amateur scouting starts up again.

[Basketeer]

Keith seems to be ignoring the fact that as a 5'9", 17 year-old, throwing 80-83 is pretty darn impressive.

[Stotle]

If the Orioles were in a bidding war for this guy and another team got him and then this Law tweet came out, people on here would be saying, well I am glad we didn't get him.

That's just a fact.

Maybe. I just think it's all very humorous. This board blasted Law for his "unfair" takes on the organization's moves last year. Law turns out to be dead on about most of what he said, and here we are a year later hitting the reset button. Again, I don't have an opinion about the specifics because I don't know.

I still think it's hilarious that people point to the removal of Minor League scouting (essentially) as a feather in DD's cap. Have any replacement pro scouts been hired yet? I haven't heard of any.

[allstar1579]

$550K (if that's accurate) could have bought Baltimore a year's worth of ten additional area scouts. Sorry, I'm not going to blindly applaud signings because they are different than what was done in the past -- especially when the "support" for the signing is a writer passing along the highlights given to him by the organization itself.

I don't have any opinion on the signing, as I've never seen the kid.

This is pretty much why I'm neutral in this mess as well. Like I said in the other thread, I can't believe Keith would throw something out there so specific if he hadn't heard it from someone who should know, but the around 500k price tag is about going rate for good Korean 17 year olds, so if he does have what's being reported that makes sense too. I'm just going to wait and see how things turn out on this one.

[Stotle]

Keith seems to be ignoring the fact that as a 5'9", 17 year-old, throwing 80-83 is pretty darn impressive.

In Anne Arundel county, sure.

[Tony-OH]

$550K (if that's accurate) could have bought Baltimore a year's worth of ten additional area scouts. Sorry, I'm not going to blindly applaud signings because they are different than what was done in the past -- especially when the "support" for the signing is a writer passing along the highlights given to him by the organization itself.

I don't have any opinion on the signing, as I've never seen the kid.

You are too close to the scouting side obviously at this point to have a neutral opinion when you start saying we could higher ten scouts for that money. BTW, it costs the organization more than that when travel and benefit expenses are taken into consideration but that's not the point.

You say you don't have a opinion on the signing yet you are skeptical of what the organization put out about the kid? Like Law, you appear to have an anti-DD bias, apparently because of what he did to some scouts. Honestly, I could care less about the scouts he reassigned or why he did so. Maybe tonight when I talk to him I'll ask him about how he plans to scout the minors, but I totally agree with him that video and statistical analysis make major league scouting less necessary. Unfortunately, going to work at a major league ballpark is pretty nice so some scouts don't want to hear that they are no longer needed in that regard.

The Orioles spent over $14 million on Derek Lee and Vlad Guerrero last year. If they spend half of that on international players and scouting it has a much better chance of playing off long term then what the Orioles have tried in the past.

[Lucky Jim]

If the Orioles were in a bidding war for this guy and another team got him and then this Law tweet came out, people on here would be saying, well I am glad we didn't get him.

That's just a fact.

Your disdain for fellow posters is matched only by your disdain for the O's. Making this the perfect place for you.

As for Stotle's comment, I went to the articles I had already seen which contradicted Law's take. That's why I posted both of them. My first instinct was "are the O's exaggerating?" But, at Law's price, the signing makes literally no sense. A team that has been tight-fisted forever suddenly shells out mid-six-figures for a guy with a junior varsity fastball? And, beyond that, why would anyone give a pitcher with that profile (short, no vela, no feel for off-speed) that kind of money?

So I thought to myself, what could be the reason for the discrepancy? Personally, the way Law uses it to take a shot at the O's decision re: scouts (which, again, I tend to agree w/ him about) led me to discount his opinion.

I'm not giving anyone the benefit of the doubt.

What are the chances that someone scouted him at 16 and he was 80-83 w/ little feel and that at 17 he made a significant (but not unheard of) leap in velo and feel?

[Lucky Jim]

Maybe. I just think it's all very humorous. This board blasted Law for his "unfair" takes on the organization's moves last year. Law turns out to be dead on about most of what he said, and here we are a year later hitting the reset button. Again, I don't have an opinion about the specifics because I don't know.

I still think it's hilarious that people point to the removal of Minor League scouting (essentially) as a feather in DD's cap. Have any replacement pro scouts been hired yet? I haven't heard of any.

I've never had an anti-Law perspective until recently, if that's what I have now. And I don't applaud the removal of the scouts. And I'm probably the most interested person in this issue.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

$550K (if that's accurate) could have bought Baltimore a year's worth of ten additional area scouts. Sorry, I'm not going to blindly applaud signings because they are different than what was done in the past -- especially when the "support" for the signing is a writer passing along the highlights given to him by the organization itself.

I don't have any opinion on the signing, as I've never seen the kid.

You could also buy 10 corvettes or 550,000 dollar menu items.

I find it hard to believe that spending $550k on a Korean kid would be the difference between us being able to hire 10 more area scouts. If DD actually wanted them, we would have them. It's one half of a million dollars! I doubt people are sitting around the warehouse saying "well, there goes the money we were going to use for scouting". I just don't buy it.

Furthermore, did we actually "cut" pro scouting. I thought all those guys were simply reassigned and were still getting paid just as they would in their former positions. I didn't read the reassignments as a budgetary move.

[Stotle]

You are too close to the scouting side obviously at this point to have a neutral opinion when you start saying we could higher ten scouts for that money. BTW, it costs the organization more than that when travel and benefit expenses are taken into consideration but that's not the point.

You say you don't have a opinion on the signing yet you are skeptical of what the organization put out about the kid? Like Law, you appear to have an anti-DD bias, apparently because of what he did to some scouts. Honestly, I could care less about the scouts he reassigned or why he did so. Maybe tonight when I talk to him I'll ask him about how he plans to scout the minors, but I totally agree with him that video and statistical analysis make major league scouting less necessary. Unfortunately, going to work at a major league ballpark is pretty nice so some scouts don't want to hear that they are no longer needed in that regard.

The Orioles spent over $14 million on Derek Lee and Vlad Guerrero last year. If they spend half of that on international players and scouting it has a much better chance of playing off long term then what the Orioles have tried in the past.

Obviously I am talkign about salary. It will cost Baltimore a lot more than $550K to pay for this young pitcher over the next twelve months, as well, right? Unless players are now covering their own travel, equipment, lodging, etc.

Anti-DD bias is laughable, sorry. Would you like to tell me with a straight face that folks in the organization have never put a rosy spin on a player when discussing kids with you?

You can keep talking about advance scouting -- I think it's pretty obvious you can cut there without losing much. Of course, you're ignoring the actual impactful change in having fewer eyes on the minors. But whatever.

You're preaching to the preacher with a chunk of the rest of your post.

[Tony-OH]

Look, I'm no defender of Andy MacPhail. But where would this team be today if he hadn't made some of the moves that he did? He's filled some big holes on the ML roster. We're counting on his pitching staff to develop into something.

We'll have to disagree on the bench. After all, it is just adding depth to a 69 win team. I really think any capable GM can do that and it looks like we're back to the argument that well, he didn't do anything wrong.

I wouldn't pay a Pujols or Fielder either but I might have paid a CJ Wilson. At least a Mark Buerhle.

As a side note, how far do you think we are away from saying what Nats GM Mike Rizzo said to MASN yesterday?

Last I checked, we were a last place team with a mediocre/bad minor league system when he took over and we were a bad major league team with a medicore/bad minor league system when he left. I really don't see how anyone can argue that point. That doesn't mean every move was bad, it means that the sum of his moves did not improve the organization's fortune for now or into the future really.

CJ Wilson and Mark Buerle aren't coming to a team like the Orioles unless we overpaid to the point that they would have been a financial burden. So if they aren't coming, then how do you improve the Orioles roster and with whom?

Honestly, I just don't know of the players that we could have gotten that would be these long term players that we can build around. We need Matusz and Arrieta to step up this season. We need Britton to take another step forward and not take a step back. We need Chen to be a solid major league starter. These are all things that need to happen before the Orioles are in a position to hit the free agent market for that guy that puts them over the top.

[Stotle]

Your disdain for fellow posters is matched only by your disdain for the O's. Making this the perfect place for you.

As for Stotle's comment, I went to the articles I had already seen which contradicted Law's take. That's why I posted both of them. My first instinct was "are the O's exaggerating?" But, at Law's price, the signing makes literally no sense. A team that has been tight-fisted forever suddenly shells out mid-six-figures for a guy with a junior varsity fastball? And, beyond that, why would anyone give a pitcher with that profile (short, no vela, no feel for off-speed) that kind of money?

So I thought to myself, what could be the reason for the discrepancy? Personally, the way Law uses it to take a shot at the O's decision re: scouts (which, again, I tend to agree w/ him about) led me to discount his opinion.

I'm not giving anyone the benefit of the doubt.

What are the chances that someone scouted him at 16 and he was 80-83 w/ little feel and that at 17 he made a significant (but not unheard of) leap in velo and feel?

I think you have a level head on the matter -- I don't know why Law would deliberately give bad info, so my best guess would be that he talked to people who saw the kid running bad and Baltimore relayed some info from one or more of his best starts. That's the best I can do.

[BrunoCherrytown]

You could also buy 10 corvettes or 550,000 dollar menu items.

I find it hard to believe that spending $550k on a Korean kid would be the difference between us being able to hire 10 more area scouts. If DD actually wanted them, we would have them. It's one half of a million dollars! I doubt people are sitting around the warehouse saying "well, there goes the money we were going to use for scouting". I just don't buy it.

Furthermore, did we actually "cut" pro scouting. I thought all those guys were simply reassigned and were still getting paid just as they would in their former positions. I didn't read the reassignments as a budgetary move.

A guy on Roch's blog said you could buy 214 million gerbils with what it cost to sign Fielder.

I'm not sure if it was was Richard Gere who made that post or not, but it had me laughing quite a bit.

[Stotle]

You could also buy 10 corvettes or 550,000 dollar menu items.

I find it hard to believe that spending $550k on a Korean kid would be the difference between us being able to hire 10 more area scouts. If DD actually wanted them, we would have them. It's one half of a million dollars! I doubt people are sitting around the warehouse saying "well, there goes the money we were going to use for scouting". I just don't buy it.

Furthermore, did we actually "cut" pro scouting. I thought all those guys were simply reassigned and were still getting paid just as they would in their former positions. I didn't read the reassignments as a budgetary move.

If the Orioles had bought ten corvettes or 550,000 dollar menu items I would comment that the money could have been better spent. Law's point, I believe, is that spending that money on a non-projectable arm with limited ceiling while cutting out a chunk of your scouting department is indicative of poor decision-making, generally.