Roch: Tillman trying to turn around career

[SilentJames]

Still very young, but patience running thin. Could be the closer of the future.

[oriole]

oh hell no. The best way to keep a runner from stealing a base is to get him out in the first place. If they want to run on Wieters they can go right ahead and try.

Amen! Hallelujah!

[TGO]

Glad to see some other Tillman believers. I don't think he's going to be an ace by any means but I've always thought he could at least have this guy's career:

[WV O's]

Tillman's average velocity last year on his fastball was 89.3. So clearly he didn't "top out" at 86-88. However, he was down from 92.0 average in 2009.

The question remains...why?? Do we have any educated guesses beyond "the O's system of development sucks"?

[CA-ORIOLE]

And Hammer Curve

He really doesn't throw it much anymore, if at all. Couldn't get it over the plate. It's the new/compact variation. Not nearly as sexy.

[weams]

He really doesn't throw it much anymore, if at all. Couldn't get it over the plate. It's the new/compact variation. Not nearly as sexy.

The cutter compromised it, but I think it was more a victim of the TIME TO THE PLATE fiasco. Look for it to return.

[Stotle]

He really doesn't throw it much anymore, if at all. Couldn't get it over the plate. It's the new/compact variation. Not nearly as sexy.

Is this true? He throws it less frequently, but still around once ever six pitches. Mixing in the cutter now, but CB is still his most frequent secondary:

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=5279&position=P

Also, it had more vertical and horizontal break, on average, in 2011 than in any other season (according to pitch f/x).

[LookitsPuck]

Stole, what's your take on Tilly? Victim of too many voices? Love your insight and posts.

[Stotle]

Stole, what's your take on Tilly? Victim of too many voices? Love your insight and posts.

I'm actually writing him up for ESPN Sweetspot O's blog, but will share more detailed thoughts here once that is live.

Generally, I think the blame for his struggles can be doled out to both the O's and Tillman. Lucky Jim and others have posted thoughts in this thread that are more similar to my take than the "he's a lost cause" posts.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Is this true? He throws it less frequently, but still around once ever six pitches. Mixing in the cutter now, but CB is still his most frequent secondary:

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=5279&position=P

Also, it had more vertical and horizontal break, on average, in 2011 than in any other season (according to pitch f/x).

He throws the curve, but not the 12-6 "hammer" that he used to, at least not with any fequency. He's got a compact version that he's been working on for a couple years now that is deeper and that he can actually throw for a strike. Been pretty widely discussed in the blogs (MASN etc) and fairly evident from watching Tillman pitch the past couple years.

Pich fx is ok for some things, but that doesn't make much sense. Tillman doesn't have a slider and where is his cutter grouped in there?

[CA-ORIOLE]

The cutter compromised it, but I think it was more a victim of the TIME TO THE PLATE fiasco. Look for it to return.

With the emphasis on throwing strikes, I don't think so. It's just not a pitch a lot of guys are successful with at the ML level. Plus his compact/deep version isn't all that bad.

[Stotle]

He throws the curve, but not the 12-6 "hammer" that he used to, at least not with any fequency. He's got a compact version that he's been working on for a couple years now that is deeper and that he can actually throw for a strike. Been pretty widely discussed in the blogs (MASN etc) and fairly evident from watching Tillman pitch the past couple years.

Pich fx is ok for some things, but that doesn't make much sense. Tillman doesn't have a slider and where is his cutter grouped in there?

His cutter is FC and SL.

The curve trajectories look pretty close in the aggregate. Could be that game-by-game shows different story. How is the new curve simultaneously more compact and deeper? I'm missing on the terminology, sorry.

EDIT -- to be clear, I think his curve IS deeper than it was. But that (along with improved command) is a result of cleaner mechanics (esp on the backside) and more consistent release, I think.

[CA-ORIOLE]

His cutter is FC and SL.

The curve trajectories look pretty close in the aggregate. Could be that game-by-game shows different story. How is the new curve simultaneously more compact and deeper? I'm missing on the terminology, sorry.

EDIT -- to be clear, I think his curve IS deeper than it was. But that (along with improved command) is a result of cleaner mechanics (esp on the backside) and more consistent release, I think.

Yeah, I'm no scout so my terminology may not be the greatest, I'd say it's more compact (delivery wise) because it's not 12-6 and it's deeper because it is flatter/tighter from front to back of the plate allowing more opportunity to capture the strike zone, but obviously sacraficing some vertical drop. In this sense pitch fx doesn't make much sense to me, but I do think he's more consistent with the new version and get the sense he has better command of it. Sometimes on the 12-6 he would just lose it and get some tail. I'm not sure how pitch f/x averages these things. Maybe that's why his vertical drop looks better.

[Stotle]

Yeah, I'm no scout so my terminology may not be the greatest, I'd say it's more compact (delivery wise) because it's not 12-6 and it's deeper because it is flatter/tighter from front to back of the plate allowing more opportunity to capture the strike zone, but obviously sacraficing some vertical drop. In this sense pitch fx doesn't make much sense to me, but I do think he's more consistent with the new version and get the sense he has better command of it. Sometimes on the 12-6 he would just lose it and get some tail. I'm not sure how pitch f/x averages these things. Maybe that's why his vertical drop looks better.

Gotcha. To clarify:

- Depth would usually be the distance between apex of the arc and conclusion of the pitch. So a depp curve is generally one with a lot of break.

- Bite would be the angle the pitch takes. So a harder curve will have a tighter arc with a more abrupt break, while a softer curve will have a looser arc.

My general observation is by the end of the season the pitch was more consistent in release, which gave it more consistent shape and trajectory. It also gave the pitch a slightly harder bite and more depth.

The command issues, I think, had less to do with the break of the pitch, and more to do with inconsistencies in his arm action and release, which in turn gave him a "loose moving target" as to where he had to aim in order for the pitch to end up in a particular spot.

[MrOrange82]

Gotcha. To clarify:

- Depth would usually be the distance between apex of the arc and conclusion of the pitch. So a depp curve is generally one with a lot of break.

- Bite would be the angle the pitch takes. So a harder curve will have a tighter arc with a more abrupt break, while a softer curve will have a looser arc.

My general observation is by the end of the season the pitch was more consistent in release, which gave it more consistent shape and trajectory. It also gave the pitch a slightly harder bite and more depth.

The command issues, I think, had less to do with the break of the pitch, and more to do with inconsistencies in his arm action and release, which in turn gave him a "loose moving target" as to where he had to aim in order for the pitch to end up in a particular spot.

Looking back over Tillman's MiL numbers is making me scratch my head. Apart from 2009 and 2010, Tillman's walked waaaay too many batters on a fairly consistent basis. He's obviously still really young, but I feel like lots of these conversations revolve around his loss of control, whereas it doesn't look to me as though he's ever been good at preventing free passes and such.