Roch on Jones

[vab]

I think Duquette wants to see how things look after his renovations this offseason before talking extension with Jones. Jones probably will have a better idea what he wants to do at that point as well. Something probably needs to happen before the deadline this summer, though.

[Richmond Bird 9]

Is it possible that Jones has already told the O's he will NOT sign with them and he is not saying anything so the O's can make the best deal possible?

[Sports Guy]

I think Jones service time plus relatively low cost actually makes it more likely that he will net a better or equal return at the trade deadline, given similar performance. He's a good #5/6 bat that plays a premium position. If an aging and injury prone Beltran could get Wheeler last year, I have to think Jones (at a lower price, 1+ year of service time left and potentially open to an extension) can do better than that.

Yes, its possible...Beltran was also having a huge year with the bat, one where Jones is unlikely to duplicate. Beltran also ended up being worth a pick or 2, right?

Either way, I am not discounting the possibility that Jones could be worth more in July...I just wouldn't bank on it.

[ccbird]

There is no doubt that this offseason should be the time the O's resolve the Jones issue one way or the other. Extend him or trade him. I think DD wants to get a look at him first but nothing good can really come from delaying things with Jones. BTW....this is one of the reasons why I don;t like the fact that DD was out of MLB for so long. He knows little about these players. I mean I know he has people in the organization who know all the players well and I'm sure he has a general understanding of what our players bring but to trade players and know what kind of value you want and expect in return and what your organization needs in return you have to really know your players well. It would have helped greatly if he would have been in baseball and he could have hit the ground running.

[LookinUp]

Yes, its possible...Beltran was also having a huge year with the bat, one where Jones is unlikely to duplicate. Beltran also ended up being worth a pick or 2, right?

Either way, I am not discounting the possibility that Jones could be worth more in July...I just wouldn't bank on it.

Fair enough. So, here's the question. What if the O's are getting ok offers now. Not great, but not on the low side of value. Say, Jurjjens, Prado and one other player who is not one of their top arms (Minor/Delgado/Teheran). Do you trade him or hold out? Do you have a threshold for what the O's should take now?

For whatever it's worth, I think I agree with another poster (Dave) that he might actually still be traded before his arbitration hearing. I can be ok either way.

[Boston Dave]

Fair enough. So, here's the question. What if the O's are getting ok offers now. Not great, but not on the low side of value. Say, Jurjjens, Prado and one other player who is not one of their top arms (Minor/Delgado/Teheran). Do you trade him or hold out? Do you have a threshold for what the O's should take now?

For whatever it's worth, I think I agree with another poster (Dave) that he might actually still be traded before his arbitration hearing. I can be ok either way.

Without getting into names at all, I think the Os MUST hold out for real, legit, young prospects for Jones, and not try and do another "quantity" deal. I'm ok with moving Adam, but it must be for prospects, not suspects- even if that means a 1:1 deal, end of the day. If you're getting "ok" now, I keep him until July..he would have to have an abysmal season to be worth less than "ok," right?

[Sports Guy]

Fair enough. So, here's the question. What if the O's are getting ok offers now. Not great, but not on the low side of value. Say, Jurjjens, Prado and one other player who is not one of their top arms (Minor/Delgado/Teheran). Do you trade him or hold out? Do you have a threshold for what the O's should take now?

For whatever it's worth, I think I agree with another poster (Dave) that he might actually still be traded before his arbitration hearing. I can be ok either way.

Obviously if the deal isn't there, you don't make it.

I just don't believe that to be the case.

I would hope, for example, if that is the best Atlanta will offer that the Orioles have also tried to move Jurrjens to another team(Detroit) to increase the value of the package.

[El Gordo]

I don't think Jones wants to extend. I think determining Jones' salary is a big factor in his trade value. If the O's win the arb.or Jones settlEs favorably, it could be easier to deal him. We may have a deal in place depending on how much money is changing hands. This time of year teams tend to be close to their budget ceilings. I don't see his return being greater at the TD than now. What was the biggest prospect package at the deadline, in the past?

[El Gordo]

Interesting discussion of Jones', Cruz', and Gordon's arbitration. Since they are similar in requests and all OF with 4 years service time, one's outcome effects the other's. If one has settled it may be kept quiet until after the others are resolved, so as not to have undo influence. This may be the case here with Jones. Something to consider. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/extension-precedents-for-cruz-jones-gordon.html

[LookinUp]

Obviously if the deal isn't there, you don't make it.

This wasn't the question though. THE deal clearly isn't there. A deal might be. More specifically, an ok deal might be on the table.

This is where the art of the job comes into play. We all want a clear cut good/great deal. The GM has to weigh the offer on the table with future opportunity. AM clearly failed at this with Guthrie. You and others don't seem to have much faith in DD's ability to do this either. So, should he take an OK deal now or should he hold out for what could be a monster deal, or a worse deal, in 6 months?

I think your position is that an ok deal should be out there now and he should take it, and that you understand a truly good/great deal is probably not on the table. Am I right on that?

[Sports Guy]

This wasn't the question though. THE deal clearly isn't there. A deal might be. More specifically, an ok deal might be on the table.

This is where the art of the job comes into play. We all want a clear cut good/great deal. The GM has to weigh the offer on the table with future opportunity. AM clearly failed at this with Guthrie. You and others don't seem to have much faith in DD's ability to do this either. So, should he take an OK deal now or should he hold out for what could be a monster deal, or a worse deal, in 6 months?

I think your position is that an ok deal should be out there now and he should take it, and that you understand a truly good/great deal is probably not on the table. Am I right on that?

My take is simple...If the orioles really tried to push to trade Jones, that they would get multiple offers that would justify trading him.

[El Gordo]

One reason for holding off on a Jones extension could be that if the SP doesn't show significant improvement before the trade deadline, a big firesale is in the offing. In this case having Jones for 4 more years wouldn't be as valuableto the club as what you can get in trade, unless the extension is very club friendly. Not likely IMO.

[Singleton]

This wasn't the question though. THE deal clearly isn't there. A deal might be. More specifically, an ok deal might be on the table.

This is where the art of the job comes into play. We all want a clear cut good/great deal. The GM has to weigh the offer on the table with future opportunity. AM clearly failed at this with Guthrie. You and others don't seem to have much faith in DD's ability to do this either. So, should he take an OK deal now or should he hold out for what could be a monster deal, or a worse deal, in 6 months?

I think your position is that an ok deal should be out there now and he should take it, and that you understand a truly good/great deal is probably not on the table. Am I right on that?

How do you know the deal isn't there? It likely depends on what DD is looking for. If DD is not committed to a total rebuild and instead wants to take a shot at .500 without spending much, he wouldn't be interested in a prospect centered deal.

Frankly, this is the only explanation I can think of for DD's offseason to date. I've stated everywhere I think it is the wrong approach. Whether you agree or not, i sure don't see how you can be sure about the quality of the deals currently on the table.

[Rene88]

I wonder if clubs are not offering prospects for Jones. Perhaps we could get Carlos Lee:)

[NCRaven]

I wonder if clubs are not offering prospects for Jones. Perhaps we could get Carlos Lee:)

Well, if DD could turn Jones into a player with similar ability, but 4 years younger, plus another major league player, like he did with Guthrie, I might be convinced to get behind that.