What if Duquette's plan for 2012....works?

[24fps]

Apparently some people are able to discern at least the outlines of a plan from Duquette's actions. I think the problem is that much of his plan is behind the scenes. He sees the major problem with the team as organizational and that once these issues are addressed, the ML roster issues will be resolved, as well. Duquette's first draft should be interesting.

Plain as can be.

The month leading up to next season's trade deadline will be interesting as well.

[luismatos4prez]

The organization is terrible...they deserve everything they get.

[Sparkwinder]

I think this has been one of the best offseasons for the O's in a long time.

Biggest reason being: We didn't commit to anything big or particularly dumb. Atkins + Vlad for two years running has been dumb and subsequently disappointing. We didn't give Jones a dumb extension. We didn't sign a guy like Fielder who, in my mind, is high risk/high reward type signing who would just as likely sink the organization into another decade of losing as he would help them get above .500. We stayed away from anything that is going to handicap us when it comes time to sign one of our home-grown pitchers / Wieters to a huge extension. We made *a very good trade* in getting rid of Guthrie. It gave us financial flexibility, youth, equal talent, and a bit of upside potential.

We played moneyball with our signings. That's exactly what this club needs to do until we have a decently rounded core of inexpensive/coming-of-age players.

We stuck it to South Korea. About time. We should go after Canada next.

I'd like to continue the success with some or all of the following moves:

Trade Reynolds unless you are going to use him as DH. I'd rather see Andino starting at 3B than Reynolds. This will help our pitch-to-contact pitching staff immensely.

Buy out Brian Roberts. Tired of him holding the organization hostage. Give him 3/4ths of his contract or whatever it takes for a buyout, free up the roster spot, and move on. He was a steroid guy anyway, no idea why all the good will exists toward him.

Keep the Bat-phone open for Jones. When the right prospect-package presents itself, take it.

Make it known that nobody is untouchable, including Wieters.

[El Gordo]

We can contend but we need a lot more talent and more ML ready guys then the ones we will get in the draft and Int'l signings. What DD wants to do is great for SUSTAINING success..but you have to have some kind of a foundation first and the Orioles really lack that. They have some potential talent but need more and they need that talent to be cheaper and younger.

If you trade the talent that would help you contend within 4 years you aren't likely to get talent back that will help you in that time frame. Take Reynolds e.g. He could be moved now, for not much of long term value, but if his defense improves this season, and he puts up his ususal 35+ HR, he could have some value at the deadline, or next fall, Or he may be worth extending. We have Hardy for 3 more years. He would be worth a lot in trade now, but if we get good progress from Arrieta, Matusz, and Britton, this season, we is worth a lot to us as well. Markakis' salary is too much of an impediment to getting much of long term value IMO. Reimold would have more value after a productive 2012, than now. Wieters is our most valuable trade piece, but he will have more value next fall. No hurry here, IMO. Really the only player it makes sense to trade now, rather than at the deadline or beyond is Jones. How many prospects do you think we are getting for him that will help us contend within 4 years? If the young SP stinks again this season, and Chen, Wada etc. are disappointments, then I am all for a full scale rebuild, beginning with a Wieters trade, but it is foolhardy and rash to start sooner than that.,

[Sports Guy]

If you trade the talent that would help you contend within 4 years you aren't likely to get talent back that will help you in that time frame. Take Reynolds e.g. He could be moved now, for not much of long term value, but if his defense improves this season, and he puts up his ususal 35+ HR, he could have some value at the deadline, or next fall, Or he may be worth extending. We have Hardy for 3 more years. He would be worth a lot in trade now, but if we get good progress from Arrieta, Matusz, and Britton, this season, we is worth a lot to us as well. Markakis' salary is too much of an impediment to getting much of long term value IMO. Reimold would have more value after a productive 2012, than now. Wieters is our most valuable trade piece, but he will have more value next fall. No hurry here, IMO. Really the only player it makes sense to trade now, rather than at the deadline or beyond is Jones. How many prospects do you think we are getting for him that will help us contend within 4 years? If the young SP stinks again this season, and Chen, Wada etc. are disappointments, then I am all for a full scale rebuild, beginning with a Wieters trade, but it is foolhardy and rash to start sooner than that.,

Jones should definitely be dealt now. Hardy, Johnson and Reynolds are all possibilities between now and July 31. If you ar elucky and you get good years from hammel, gregg and/or Lindstrom, you move them too.

You can get rid of a lot of players and quickly turn things around while also doing what needs to be done long term,. ie what DD is focusing on.

But if you have no foundation for talent and you severly lack depth, it pushes you back even further.

[jiminnj]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to El Gordo again.

I had the same problem. Gordo's comments have echoed my thoughts.

[Hang10]

Reading the board, I think about 90% of the posters (me included) think that Duquette is dreaming if he thinks it likely that this team plays .500+ baseball in 2012. But, what if it does happen? Will you view the team's future over the next several years in a different light? Will you be willing to give Duquette more of a benefit of the doubt? Or will you see it as a lucky blip on the radar that has no real long-term meaning and says nothing about Duquette?

I think it will succeed and I think the future is bright for this franchise. I think the move towards depth was long needed and will address a lot of past shortcomings, particularly with regard to the starting pitching thoughout the long major league season.

[El Gordo]

Jones should definitely be dealt now. Hardy, Johnson and Reynolds are all possibilities between now and July 31. If you ar elucky and you get good years from hammel, gregg and/or Lindstrom, you move them too.

You can get rid of a lot of players and quickly turn things around while also doing what needs to be done long term,. ie what DD is focusing on.

But if you have no foundation for talent and you severly lack depth, it pushes you back even further.

I don't see how the difference between trading these guys now as opposed to at the deadline or next fall, will be the difference be between contending in 2 years instead of 4-5.

[Bradysburns]

You could see significant contributions from Chen, Wada, Antonelli, Teagarden, Eveland, Betemit and Jai Miller. If Chen and Wada contribute 20 wins together, Teagarden proves a good backup, Antonelli becomes a starting second baseman and contributes, Betemit fills the DH hole and occasionally subs at third... and Jai Miller contributes in left... DD would deserve credit for any and all of that.

Likewise if Machado gets a late call-up, as any player development from here forward will largely happen under DD's new regime.

In fact, if this team reaches .500, I assume it will come - to a significant degree - from DD's acquisitions.

The likelihood is small, I agree. They need a true veteran #1 starter, IMO. They also need a true MOO bat. But anyway... I am certainly not ready to fire DD before the first pitch is thrown! We gave AM 5 years, and listened to his marketing line for 5 years. DD gets, well, zero years.

[carolinaoriole]

The big mistake DD has made is saying the team will win more games than they lose this season.

The Korea thing is overblown

The players signed have been more for depth than any impact for next season

He has re-organized the front office and scouting departments. Both of these were things that most here have been clamoring for.

The Orioles have had 14 straight losing season,Duquette has been involved in none of them.

[Frobby]

Let's say it goes something like this:

Antonelli proves capable defensively and puts up a .720 OPS that includes a .340 OBP.

Teagarden proves an upgrade defensively to Tatum and puts up a .700ish OPS.

Betemit hits around .750 OPS and a .345 OBP.

Chavez has a .700ish OPS and plays good outfield defense when he's out there.

Let's say all that happens and the offense improves by 50-75 runs.

On the pitching side:

Chen posts a 4.00ish ERA in 180 IP.

Hammel posts a 4.60ish ERA in 170 IP

Lindstrom gives us 55 IP at a 4.00ish ERA

Wada gives us 65 IP at a 4.00ish ERA

O'Day gives us 50 IP at a 4.00ish ERA

Eveland gives us 75 IP as a long reliever/spot starter at a 5.00ish ERA

Let's say all that happens and the Orioles allow 75-100 runs less than last year.

That's the new components to your .500 team. The stats I gave for those 10 players probably don't result in all of the team runs scored/runs allowed improvement I hypothesized. The rest has to come from internal improvement.

If it played out like that, I'd say Duquette's plan worked out pretty well.

Of course, it won't work out exactly this way. Maybe 1 or 2 guys do a lot better than I suggested here; maybe 1 or 2 do nothing positive at all. But if the overall contribution of these 10 looks like this, and the team gets to .500 as a result, I say kudos go to Duquette.

Just so it's clear, I'm not predicting it comes out this way. But it's not that implausible, either.

[Singleton]

Plain as can be.

The month leading up to next season's trade deadline will be interesting as well.

Since I've been on the board, I often see it referenced that a period of time in the near future of this team will be "interesting." Spring training. West coast road trip. trade deadline, etc.

What is interesting is in the eye of the beholder but I can't think of any time in the last several years as being all that interesting. It's mostly been a whole lot of poor play and moves that haven't worked out.

[Singleton]

Reading the board, I think about 90% of the posters (me included) think that Duquette is dreaming if he thinks it likely that this team plays .500+ baseball in 2012. But, what if it does happen? Will you view the team's future over the next several years in a different light? Will you be willing to give Duquette more of a benefit of the doubt? Or will you see it as a lucky blip on the radar that has no real long-term meaning and says nothing about Duquette?

Assuming that our youth is a big part of why we got to .500 -- sure. How could you not feel better? 82 is significantly better than 69.

I'd give DD some rope since at the very least he didn't dismantle and there would probably have been moves that contributed.

Having said that, all of us constantly evaluate and reevaluate players, managers, GMs etc. Many, myself included, felt very good about AM in his first year when he pulled together two good trades and made some other solid moves. It bought him some rope for sure. Then when he didn't follow up, the tide turned.

[weams]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1019535-diamondbacks-manager-kirk-gibson-will-be-a-2012-bobblehead-at-dodger-stadium

[weams]

If you trade the talent that would help you contend within 4 years you aren't likely to get talent back that will help you in that time frame. Take Reynolds e.g. He could be moved now, for not much of long term value, but if his defense improves this season, and he puts up his ususal 35+ HR, he could have some value at the deadline, or next fall, Or he may be worth extending. We have Hardy for 3 more years. He would be worth a lot in trade now, but if we get good progress from Arrieta, Matusz, and Britton, this season, we is worth a lot to us as well. Markakis' salary is too much of an impediment to getting much of long term value IMO. Reimold would have more value after a productive 2012, than now. Wieters is our most valuable trade piece, but he will have more value next fall. No hurry here, IMO. Really the only player it makes sense to trade now, rather than at the deadline or beyond is Jones. How many prospects do you think we are getting for him that will help us contend within 4 years? If the young SP stinks again this season, and Chen, Wada etc. are disappointments, then I am all for a full scale rebuild, beginning with a Wieters trade, but it is foolhardy and rash to start sooner than that.,

We own an option on Reynolds.