Miggy offers to talk to Soriano....

[El Gordo]

There are lots of ways we could spend $15M that would improve us as much or more than signing Soriano.

Signing Soriano to a huge contract only makes sense if he's the piece to take us from a contender to a WS hopeful, or perhaps even from a .500 team to a legit playoff contender. Signing him to take us from a below .500 team to a slightly above .500 team is pointless, because by the time we'd get to be a contender, Soriano and his contract will be a hindrance. It would be acceptable to deal with 2 years and $30M for a .750 OPS LF if that same guy got us to the playoffs in his first 3 years, but I don't think thats likely.

I'd spend money on guys that are shorter term gambles, like Burrell, who is only owed money for two more years. If we're going to give out long term contracts, it should be to younger guys - like Teixeira and Matsuzaka.

That if you sign Soriano you do nothing else. Increasing the payroll to $100mil. would allow you to do more. Add some bullpen help and another 800+ OPS bat or two and your in business.

[xKHx]

We sign these top tier guys without putting a no trade clause in the contract. So when Teams like the mets and yankees need people we ship them off for 5 prospects. Signing top tier guys like Soriano or Schmidt just isnt about what they can do for you next year but potential and past history would make them great trade bait instead of sludging around waiting 5 more years to have a play off contending team. 1. They will be an improvement of whoever they replace. 2. It will create excitment again. 3 Excitement brings more people to the yard. 4. If they dont pan out and are relativly young like 28-33 then ship them off to a contender when the races get hot for 5 or so prospects. You dont mortgage the future through fa unless you go after stupid people like sosa or people in the latter part of the years and give them big contracts. If we brought Soriano here and he had a 28 homer 30 base steal season we could prolly get Santana and kotchman deal, without giving up miggy how much better do you think that looks? I dunno thats my 2 cents about free agents.

[El Gordo]

Get back to their winning ways of the 70's and 80's, and gentlemen that was by no means through free agency. It was through player development.

When you look at the track record of high priced free agents that have come here it's not very good. What makes anyone think that Soriano wouldn't be more of the same? This team needs a serious attitude adjustment first and filling holes with numbers would only mask that problem.

Suppose we do sign Soriano, Schmidt, et. al. that still won't stop them from swinging at pitches in the dirt when a pitcher is struggling, throwing to the wrong base late in the game to allow a runner to advance, walking lead-off batters late in a close game, losing after outhitting and opponent. Are we just going to ignore that?

You guys watch the games, how many teams are playing that kind of baseball against us? Not to many (maybe the DRays).

Basically getting that sure fire, first ever, 100% first ballot Hall of Famer Alfonso Soriano and putting the team payroll closer to $100 million is going to magically make the O's a playoff contender? I doubt it. If you want to compete that way with the Yankees you better start thinking about a payroll closer to $150 million. I for one love this team bacause of the way they beat teams with pitching, defense, and timely hitting years back and that formula is still effectively being used today by the Twins and the Braves.

Lets put a solid team on the field first, then worry about overpaying for the Soriano's of the world. When he goes on one of his strike out binges and boots a few balls out there in left with his boards as hands will you forgive him as easily as a player like Markakis because his OPS is over .800?

Given the apologists for Tejada here, you probably will.

...and 2 years down the road when they've gone 11 straight seasons under .500 will he still be considered part of the answer?

If you'll remember (and I still have serious doubts you do) began in fact with Pual Richards taking over the team and came into fruition under the minor league tutalage of Cal Sr. and Earl. It took 6 years to bear fruit in the Majors, and 11 years to get a WS. The O's don't have another 10 years.

[DrungoHazewood]

Sounds like you actually like Alfonso. Even with that OBP? Would you be in favor of signing him?

If I were the GM, no. But given the Orioles peculiar circumstances he might not be a bad option.

They're a bad team with obvious holes. Let me rephrase that. They're half of a good team, and half of a terrible team. Meaning that the holes are obvious, and a real solution to even one of those holes is likely to be a 5-8 win improvement. Soriano, even at his career averages, along with a good first baseman would probably make this an 85-win team. Add in some improvement out of the starters and some bullpen help, and they'd have a legitimate chance at competing for the wild card.

Down the road the forecast might get murkier, as Tejada and Hernandez and Soriano age. But - if they can get to the playoffs in '07 or '08 then revenues start to trend upward, ticket sales trend upward, fan apathy starts to reverse. If they can keep the farm system churning, then they have the basis for a team that can support a $100M+ payroll year after year. Soriano (or whoever's) bad contract looks much less bad for a 90-win team with a growing fanbase.

If they don't sign a guy like Soriano (and don't blow up the team with trades) then competing rests completely and totally on big, big improvment out of Loewen, Cabrera, Penn, etc.

The chances of competing before Miggy and Hernandez get old with a Soriano are greater than without.

[bigloe]

Get back to their winning ways of the 70's and 80's, and gentlemen that was by no means through free agency. It was through player development.

Sorry to tell you that this isn't the 1970's or 80's. In todays era, you need to mix the right free agents with some home grown talent to win, unless you are the Yankees, who can just buy an allstar team. The Orioles have finally started developing a young core with Markakis, Loewen, Ray, Roberts, and Bedard. Now we need some free agents to fill in the holes. Yes the last 8-9 years have been bad, but that has to do with our lack of development of that homegrown talent. We need those quality FA's now to continue the progress of our young players and move this team back to where we want it to be WINNING!!!

[66-70-83-??]

Get back to their winning ways of the 70's and 80's, and gentlemen that was by no means through free agency. It was through player development.

I remember those days well......but times have changed. You cannot keep your homegrown talent forever.

They must use every avenue to improve the team, including FA.

The Orioles are a sick patient. They don't have time to research and develop new medicines. They need major surgery NOW.

The fans will not sit through yet another rebuilding project. Nor does PA seem to want to ever go that route.

They need to use the FA route NOW to help speed up the program.

In a perfect world, we would be like Oak/Minn and we would have steadily brought up a Mauer, Santana, and Morneau every few years. But, we have been dismal in player developement. Therefore, we must compensate for much of that failure in free agent signings. Either that or keep waiting for enough homegrown talent to develop. That isn't realistic.

[NationalBoSign]

They're definitely on the right (or shall I say better) track. They've been doing a patch here and there for better part of 10? years, and since Flanigan's got there they've been stocking the farms. I like that. There is definitely talent down there and it seems like the scouting has gotten better.

I just think the FA route might blow up in your face with a guy like Soriano.

Jeez, I get jumped on just by suggesting he won't help. It is a possibility....and not a slight one.

[El Gordo]

If I were the GM, no. But given the Orioles peculiar circumstances he might not be a bad option.

They're a bad team with obvious holes. Let me rephrase that. They're half of a good team, and half of a terrible team. Meaning that the holes are obvious, and a real solution to even one of those holes is likely to be a 5-8 win improvement. Soriano, even at his career averages, along with a good first baseman would probably make this an 85-win team. Add in some improvement out of the starters and some bullpen help, and they'd have a legitimate chance at competing for the wild card.

Down the road the forecast might get murkier, as Tejada and Hernandez and Soriano age. But - if they can get to the playoffs in '07 or '08 then revenues start to trend upward, ticket sales trend upward, fan apathy starts to reverse. If they can keep the farm system churning, then they have the basis for a team that can support a $100M+ payroll year after year. Soriano (or whoever's) bad contract looks much less bad for a 90-win team with a growing fanbase.

If they don't sign a guy like Soriano (and don't blow up the team with trades) then competing rests completely and totally on big, big improvment out of Loewen, Cabrera, Penn, etc.

The chances of competing before Miggy and Hernandez get old with a Soriano are greater than without.

You make it sound almost hopeful. But what would you do if you were GM?

[Flosman]

Honestly look at this team they HAVE used FA and trades to speed the process up. Miggy, Ramon, Benson and patterson are long term peices we acquired through the market. The problem that faced Flanny when he got here and continues to face the O's to a much less degree is the Farm full of players either that stink or were taking turns having surgery. The farm is really starting to produce some good talent if the FO continue to make deals that add more valuable pieces than the cost the O's are going to turn it around. The key is continue the flow of real talent into the system. Also the O's need to have players reach the potential they have. we would be in a entirely different situation if we had had success developing some of the guys we have ad over the years. Think of where the O's would be if Ponson, Riley, Bigbie, Matos, Rogers, Reed et. al. would have lived up to realistic expectations or even better yeat would have been passed over for better baseball players. The problem with the O's started sometime in the 80's when the farm became an afterthought and we tried our hand at the pennant buying plan.

I personally think for the right price Soriano fits into the plan they have followed. That being if it is a long term FA commitment make it for a top notch player. Now I do not know if the O's will go has high has it will take to get Soriano but I am very sure that they have a price that they would pay to get him.

[Frobby]

I think Soriano is worth about 40-50 extra runs to this team's offense. I get to this figure in a couple of ways.

First, just looking at his 162-game averages, Soriano produces 105 Runs + 95 RBI - 35 HR = 165 Runs Produced. Reduce it by 4% (assumes he'll miss 6 games) and you are left with 159 Runs Produced. Meanwhile, the Oriole left fielders, in 156 games so far this year, have produced 57 Runs + 67 RBI - 7 HR = 105 Runs Produced. So there's a 54-run differential there, and that doesn't include Soriano's impact on the rest of the lineup.

Second, using the Runs Created formula, Oriole left fielders have created 66 runs this season. Soriano averages about 106 per season (he's at 129.5 and counting this year).

That extra 40-50 runs would move the Orioles from 9th to 6th in run production. Probably that's worth 4-5 wins.

[NationalBoSign]

I think they can win 4-5 more games by playing smarter baseball.

[El Gordo]

. Now I do not know if the O's will go has high has it will take to get Soriano but I am very sure that they have a price that they would pay to get him.

I think Angelos has said so . "$60-75 MIL. commitment". Which might get us Lee but not Soriano

[Fan4Life]

I think Soriano is worth about 40-50 extra runs to this team's offense. I get to this figure in a couple of ways.

First, just looking at his 162-game averages, Soriano produces 105 Runs + 95 RBI - 35 HR = 165 Runs Produced. Reduce it by 4% (assumes he'll miss 6 games) and you are left with 159 Runs Produced. Meanwhile, the Oriole left fielders, in 156 games so far this year, have produced 57 Runs + 67 RBI - 7 HR = 105 Runs Produced. So there's a 54-run differential there, and that doesn't include Soriano's impact on the rest of the lineup.

Second, using the Runs Created formula, Oriole left fielders have created 66 runs this season. Soriano averages about 106 per season (he's at 129.5 and counting this year).

That extra 40-50 runs would move the Orioles from 9th to 6th in run production. Probably that's worth 4-5 wins.

Isn't that a minimum of 4-5 games. I'm not sure how many games we have lost by 2 runs or less, but depending on where the extra 40-50 runs occurs, couldn't it could be as much as a 10-20 game difference?

[Frobby]

Isn't that a minimum of 4-5 games. I'm not sure how many games we have lost by 2 runs or less, but depending on where the extra 40-50 runs occurs, couldn't it could be as much as a 10-20 game difference?

Well, I do think it's a fallacy to think that the relationship between runs and wins always can be described in mathematical terms. But with that said, if the Orioles had scored another 50 runs this year, they still would have been outscored by a margin of more than 50 runs on the season, which means it is highly likely they still would have had a losing record.

What this team really needs to do is knock 100 runs off the runs allowed column.

[NationalBoSign]

Well, I do think it's a fallacy to think that the relationship between runs and wins always can be described in mathematical terms. But with that said, if the Orioles had scored another 50 runs this year, they still would have been outscored by a margin of more than 50 runs on the season, which means it is highly likely they still would have had a losing record.

What this team really needs to do is knock 100 runs off the runs allowed column.

...with pitching and defense.