Jai Miller - 4th Outfielder?

[Lucky Jim]

The good news is that we've signed our Cespedes*!

*Poor-man's.

[SammyBirdland]

I was just reading a review of the O's offseason on MLB Trade Rumors and saw this:

Acquired OF Jai Miller from the Athletics for $45K.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/03/offseason-in-review-baltimore-orioles.html?utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=twitterfeed

So we got Jai Miller for like...a Ford Expedition.

[Tony-OH]

I think Jai Miller is a sleeper and will be the starting left fielder by the end of the season.

If you mean for the Norfolk Tides then I agree. Other wise, I'll take that bet my friend.

[olehippi]

If you mean for the Norfolk Tides then I agree. Other wise, I'll take that bet my friend.

Miller is out of options. Won't he have to clear waivers first?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think Jai Miller is a sleeper and will be the starting left fielder by the end of the season.

I don't about that (possible due to injury or Reimold being horrible), but I think he's becoming a much better bet to make the opening day roster.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think Jai Miller is a sleeper and will be the starting left fielder by the end of the season.

It would be quite impressive for him to go from striking out in almost 50% of his PAs against lefties last year (in the PCL!) to starting in the majors a year later.

It's interesting that PECOTA projects him to a .259/.306/.478 line in 259 PAs. But with 87 Ks. My guess is that he's going to have real trouble hitting .259, and that'll mean he has real trouble OBPing enough to be a positive offensive player.

[Tony-OH]

Miller is out of options. Won't he have to clear waivers first?

I don't think that will be a problem. I'd be shocked if he's claimed unless he puts up a monster spring. I expect the strikeout to start rising as soon as the minor league pitchers are weeded out and they major league ones start using their offspeed pitches more.

Maybe I'm wrong, but with a team that has a lot of high strikeout guys in the starting lineup (Reynolds, Davis, Jones, Hardy) the bench would be better off with a OBP guy like Johnson than an all or nothing guy like Miller. I've just never seen a guy with his contact rate at 26-years old in the minor league end up a good productive major leaguer.

Maybe he'll prove me wrong, and honestly I hope he's the exception, but I just don't see him having success in the major leagues with so many holes in his swing. Major league pitchers will figure him out very quickly like guys like Mike Hessman and Brandon Wood.

[CA-ORIOLE]

It would be quite impressive for him to go from striking out in almost 50% of his PAs against lefties last year (in the PCL!) to starting in the majors a year later.

It's interesting that PECOTA projects him to a .259/.306/.478 line in 259 PAs. But with 87 Ks. My guess is that he's going to have real trouble hitting .259, and that'll mean he has real trouble OBPing enough to be a positive offensive player.

Seams like his BA/OBP sep was pretty high last year and has been pretty good for his career. Maybe there's more room for a better spread with a lower BA. From what little I've seen he looks like a pretty good FB hitter, but the offspeed stuff really eats him up. He doesn't get cheated up there. No doubt he has to cut those K's down. Pretty interesting character.

[DrungoHazewood]

Major league pitchers will figure him out very quickly like guys like Mike Hessman and Brandon Wood.

Brandon Wood has a much higher minor league contact rate than Jai.

And I don't really have much of a point here, but I just wanted to mention Mike Hessman has hit under .220 like six times in the minors, including two times where he hit under .200 but with 19+ homers. I have to root for a guy who once hit .165, but has 335 minor league homers.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Maybe he'll prove me wrong, and honestly I hope he's the exception, but I just don't see him having success in the major leagues with so many holes in his swing. Major league pitchers will figure him out very quickly like guys like Mike Hessman and Brandon Wood.

Having watched a lot of Brandon Wood I do get the impression Miller's swing is better. From what little I've seen I do agree with your assesment of Miller's inability to handle offspeed stuff though.

[crissfan172]

You could DH Reimold and play Miller in LF against LH SP.

This is what I'm hoping for.

[Tony-OH]

Brandon Wood has a much higher minor league contact rate than Jai.

And I don't really have much of a point here, but I just wanted to mention Mike Hessman has hit under .220 like six times in the minors, including two times where he hit under .200 but with 19+ homers. I have to root for a guy who once hit .165, but has 335 minor league homers.

Which makes Miller's chances even dimmer. Sometimes people get too enamored with a guy lighting it up in spring training and they forget he has a minor league track record that supersedes a few extra base hits early in spring training. The guy does look the part and his defense is supposed to be good at the corners and adequate in center, but I just can't get over the fact that when the lights come on during the regular season, it's a different ball game. If anyone doubts that see exhibit A last year, Jake Fox.

[Tony-OH]

This is what I'm hoping for.

So you're hoping for a guy who struck in nearly half his at bats last season against PCL AAA LH pitching is our starting DH against LHs? You have low expectations.

[Don Quixote]

So you're hoping for a guy who struck in nearly half his at bats last season against PCL AAA LH pitching is our starting DH against LHs? You have low expectations.

It's tough being an Orioles fan.

Miller had a nice game today, but the balance in ST is weighted in favor of track records and mechanics over SSS statistics, and that's as it should be.

[Frobby]

Interesting day for Miller. He hit the three-run dinger and a double, but he also struck out with the bases loaded and only one out in the 10th inning when a fly out or a grounder in the right place would have won the ballgame.