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ESPN mag says orioles will....

SilentJames

By SilentJames
in Orioles Talk

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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63, and we will all celebrate avoiding 100 losses. What say you?

Well, I've got to have some skin in the game.

That said, I think we're probably a 71-75 win team, conservatively. I do think they could surprise (and by surprise I mean, like, 80 games).

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MrOrange82 Hangout Grand Counsel

MrOrange82

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Haha, I think we say that every year.

The Orioles have simply set their competitive bar in the same way that many travelers treat luggage: directly on the moving walkway.

Sure, the O's may be the intra-division subject of fun...picked on by fellow "travelers" who don't get winded standing still and/or sucked into every Cinnabon within sniffing distance...but dang it, they get to where they're going eventually.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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I never said that I think the O's will win more then 69 games. What I said was that it is foolish to take a 69 win team from last year, that didn't lose much production, and say that the most they will win is 69 games. If the O's are a 62 true talent win team this year then they could win more then 69 games. In 2011 alone four teams won 8 games more then their Pythagorean.

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CharmCityRocker AA

CharmCityRocker

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Scott has been replaced by Chris Davis (I presume), Roberts was out but Andino was pretty good and will be playing again this year, likely not as well as 2011. So no wins added there unless Chris Davis is the next Luke Scott and he's probably not.

Chris Davis is replacing 2011 Luke Scott who played in 60 games and put up a .700 OPS. Sort of like 2011 Chris Davis did. The good news for us is that Davis is 26 going in to this season and Luke will be turning 34.

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SilentJames Hangout Veteran Council

SilentJames

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I have a weird feeling this team will be better than we expect or much worse than we expect. I'd say best case scenario is winning 80 games, while the worst case is winning just 60.

I agree with the worst case. But I just don't see how we don't break .500 if Matusz and Arrieta start pitching like they were expected.

If Matusz is in his 2010 form, and Arrieta continues to be very good I think Chen is more than solid that leaves Hammel and Hunter, they should be average at least.

I think the best case is .500+ worst case is 60 though. And if we are approaching that worst case, firesale time. Jones, Markakis, Reynolds, Wieters.

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Snutchy All-Star

Snutchy

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I used to think in terms of "well such and such was so craptacular last year, he can't really be worse, and we no longer have X/Y/Z combining for a 451.29 ERA over 100 innings, so there's some wins" but we have those guys every year. We have depth but it's not like it's high quality minor league depth it's just a bunch of AAAA stuff. People will get injured, a guy will come up, he'll have a 5.50 ERA, such-and-such's rehab has been setback, 5.50 ERA guy gets more innings than he should, and before you know it it's August and such-and-such is out for the year and we throw our hands up and say, we're 15 back, just tell Jakubauskas to throw strikes so the game ends sooner.

And the Orioles have mailed it in the last two years? This is not the same team from 2005.

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