Jim Duquette's comments on the orioles this morning.

[Sports Guy]

Funny all the national media and baseball experts agree with what i say and the only people that agree with you are guys who predicted the orioles would win over 82 games last year.

Umm, I have them winning like 68 games this year. Most people on this site have them well below 500. Stop making up stuff. This is why no one respects you. You are a liar.

Most people on this site are negative..they just have intelligence behind it...you don't, that's the difference.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/119522-OHP-How-many-games-wil-the-Orioles-win-in-2012/page3

[Sports Guy]

Really? Baseball prospectus has us at 74 wins.

Do they have a radio show? lol

[atomic]

I agree with the Pecota prediction of 75 W. I don't think they have any ax to grind. The same can't be said about virtually any media source like Duquette, or Law etc .They have their agenda's. There are established media consenis opinions and if you want to be a successful "commentator-talking head" you can't go against these. The consensis is the the O's are a laughing stock of baseball, so any one attempting an objctive analysis of the team, would expose themselves to riDicule. Much easier to stick with the exagGerated party line. This is not to say the O's aren't a bad team. Just not nearly as bad as they are usually characterized. It is clear from listening to these types, they haven't spent much time thinking about the O's at all. Most posters on the OH could run rings around them with specifics for this team.

Well it appears if you give an objective evaluation of the Orioles on here you are ridiculed. An objective view of this team is it is a bad team especially starting pitching. If you don't think they will have a bad starting staff you are not basing this on past results. You are predicting players having significant improvements over their career results. While this is possible the odds are against it.

[atomic]

Umm, I have them winning like 68 games this year. Most people on this site have them well below 500. Stop making up stuff. This is why no one respects you. You are a liar.

Most people on this site are negative..they just have intelligence behind it...you don't, that's the difference.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/119522-OHP-How-many-games-wil-the-Orioles-win-in-2012/page3

I guess using statistics makes me super dumb in your mind. I really don't know what i have said that could be consider unintelligent. And in this thread I am making no claims at all. I am just repeating what I heard on the radio. If you guys were such Orioles fans perhaps you would listen to local sports radio and listen to the interviews that occur instead of getting angry at me because they don't match up with your fantasy world.

[Orioles0615]

I am not a negative poster I am a realistic poster. I say good things about Markakis, Wieters, and Andino. The team is bad so if speak the truth you are going to think it is negative as you don't see things as they are.

Are you saying you find more positives to say about Andino then Jones and Hardy and hell even Reimold?

[Frobby]

Maybe Jimmy D should've just said we have a bunch of #4s and #5s for an AL East rotation...

Let's see from Stevie M's article on 3/15...

Tampa Bay Rays

James Shields

David Price

Jeremy Hellickson

Matt Moore

Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis

Looks like we have a team of #5s and long relievers compared to the Rays right?

Boston Red Sox (looks like Bard's out of the picture, not sure about other guys in this rotation)

Jon Lester

Josh Beckett

Clay Buchholz

Daniel Bard

Alfredo Aceves, Andrew Miller or Felix Doubront

So we'd have a bunch of #4s compared to the Red Sox team.

New York Yankees

CC Sabathia

Hiroki Kuroda

Michael Pineda

Ivan Nova

Freddy Garcia or Phil Hughes

If Pineda was healthy we'd have it looks like a bunch of #5s. But with his injury #4s.

Toronto Blue Jays

Ricky Romero

Brandon Morrow

Brett Cecil

Henderson Alvarez

Dustin McGowan

We could creep up into some #3s & 4s here.

Bottom line is our rotation can't compete with the teams we play the most. I think we get 72 wins this year, but Vegas' line is Vegas' line for a reason. I'm guessing most casino sportsbooks have a more astute analytical team than the O's do seeing I haven't heard that we have 30 sabermatricians in the FO like the Yanks and Sox. We probably have one guy and another guy with an abacus.

1. What is Vegas' line? Last I heard I thought it was 70.5 or something like that. Certainly not 64 or 65 as Duquette and Keith Law are saying.

2. BP, which certainly doesn't use an abacus, is projecting 73 wins under one method and 75 under their other method.

3. The majority here aren't super-optimistic. In both polls that were run in recent weeks the majority were saying in the low 70's or worse.

4. On paper, I actually think Boston has a weaker rotation than last year. If Pineda's injury is serious the Yankees are weakened considerably. I think the rotations in the AL East have been stronger in other years. I'm not saying the current rotations aren't good, I'm just saying I don't think as a group they are any better than usual, maybe a little worse. BP thinks we will outpitch Toronto, BTW. (Not holding up BP as the be all and end all, just a credible opinion.)

[atomic]

Are you saying you find more positives to say about Andino then Jones and Hardy and hell even Reimold?

I have never said anything negative about Hardy. I was mentioning some players. Reimold I feel is overrated on here. He isn't a very good fielder and he is a left fielder so he should be putting up really high offensive numbers. Who knows he could break-out this year but I would rather see a better fielder out there.

Adam Jones is below average defensive center fielder and his OBP is low. if he could improve in these areas he could be a star.

[crissfan172]

The guy asking him the questions asked him if Reynolds is a #4 hitter he said a #4 hitter should be able to have power and get on base a lot. He said he would strike out all the time and leave people on base. He said reynolds is frustrating as #7 hitter with all his strike outs and it would be much more frustrating as a #4 hitter. He said if Reynolds was on a hot streak you could move him to #6 if he was cold move him to #8. Now I have said everything he mentioned so no one can say I was picking and chosing what to say.

Boy I wish that Reynolds could do that.

Oh Duquette...you are such an imbecile.

[Hooded Viper]

I guess using statistics makes me super dumb in your mind. I really don't know what i have said that could be consider unintelligent. And in this thread I am making no claims at all. I am just repeating what I heard on the radio. If you guys were such Orioles fans perhaps you would listen to local sports radio and listen to the interviews that occur instead of getting angry at me because they don't match up with your fantasy world.

Man my only suggestion to you is to not retaliate. The problem is you are snarky and thinned skinned and you have engaged in sniping arguments with everyone who has a logical disagreement with you. To the point where a lot of posters have thrown their hands up and said "the hell with him." It is pretty bad when even Frobby has had enough of you...he reponds to everyone.

As to the OP, I am just sick of hearing how bad the team is. I don't expect a "Why Not" season, but I can see some positives. I am hoping for a 75 win season and will be quite happy if that were to happen.

[Sports Guy]

I guess using statistics makes me super dumb in your mind. I really don't know what i have said that could be consider unintelligent. And in this thread I am making no claims at all. I am just repeating what I heard on the radio. If you guys were such Orioles fans perhaps you would listen to local sports radio and listen to the interviews that occur instead of getting angry at me because they don't match up with your fantasy world.

Using them is fine...Not understanding them is where you falter.

Listening to talk radio would be like having 100s of callers, just like yourself, giving their opinions. In other words, it would make me go postal. Stupidity and ignorance are never anything that anyone enjoys listening too.

[atomic]

Using them is fine...Not understanding them is where you falter.

Listening to talk radio would be like having 100s of callers, just like yourself, giving their opinions. In other words, it would make me go postal. Stupidity and ignorance are never anything that anyone enjoys listening too.

Basically anyone who doesn't see the things the same way as you are stupid and ignorant. I am putting you on my ignore list as all you do is attack people and never say anything constructive. Why me posting what someone said on the radio has led to this is beyond me. Good bye.

[Sports Guy]

Basically anyone who doesn't see the things the same way as you are stupid and ignorant. I am putting you on my ignore list as all you do is attack people and never say anything constructive. Why me posting what someone said on the radio has led to this is beyond me. Good bye.

No, just you...and it has nothing to do with not agreeing with me because I am just as negative about the team as you are.

Its your ignorance and lack of knowledge in doing it that is absurd.

[El Gordo]

Well it appears if you give an objective evaluation of the Orioles on here you are ridiculed. An objective view of this team is it is a bad team especially starting pitching. If you don't think they will have a bad starting staff you are not basing this on past results. You are predicting players having significant improvements over their career results. While this is possible the odds are against it.

None of what you say here is objective. It is ambiguos generaliztion. It means nothing to say this is a bad team. How bad and in what ways and why specifically? That would be something approaching an objective analysis. Bad is an opinion. Opinions are subjective.

[BrunoCherrytown]

Edit: Forgot to reference what the heck I was babbling about. This was to Frobby's response to my post.

Sportsbook.com has them at 69.5 wins over/under.

Here

I wasn't clear on my point. I was just saying my hunch says 72 wins, but the sportsbooks have us at 69.5. I'm not saying we drop to 64 wins although I think we could absolutely hit that. And on the other side maybe we clear more than 72 if Matusz lives up to his promise and Arrieta improves.

I think as Orioles fans we are all trying to find something to cling to here.

Some got all excited over being sold the "depth" pitch this offseason. But what team didn't go out and sign "depth?" They all did. But serious teams did that while trying to find ways to add quality talent too. We got excited over Chen being our big addition while other teams got Darvish, Fielder, Pujols, etc.

We went out and fumbled our way to that non-prospect, $550k South Korean signing, a New Zealand Softball/baseball player, Wada/Chen as some proof we're going to improve our international efforts while Epstein goes out and gets Concepcion for $9 million from Cuba and probably Soler, Texas spends aggressively on international prospects.

We underspend on the draft again when other teams went really aggressive.

We are constantly, as O's fans, expected to get excited over mediocre moves. Moves that don't really move the needle at all, but we have to take it as "Signs that things have changed." Nothings changed. This team will be last place this year and next year too.

We'll be on our third Duquette in the front office still hoping for the day everything changes probably.

Maybe we can get that third Duquette and pair him up with another MacPhail so we can bring back the two-headed exec monster concept again.

[Frobby]

Edit: Forgot to reference what the heck I was babbling about. This was to Frobby's response to my post.

Sportsbook.com has them at 69.5 wins over/under.

Here

I wasn't clear on my point. I was just saying my hunch says 72 wins, but the sportsbooks have us at 69.5. I'm not saying we drop to 64 wins although I think we could absolutely hit that. And on the other side maybe we clear more than 72 if Matusz lives up to his promise and Arrieta improves.

I think as Orioles fans we are all trying to find something to cling to here.

Some got all excited over being sold the "depth" pitch this offseason. But what team didn't go out and sign "depth?" They all did. But serious teams did that while trying to find ways to add quality talent too. We got excited over Chen being our big addition while other teams got Darvish, Fielder, Pujols, etc.

I am not flipping cartwheeels over our offseason. But I think our pitching will be significantly better than last year, because it almost has to be. We allowed 75 more runs in 2011 than in 2010, and it's not like our 2010 staff was very good. So, we could be 75 runs better and all we'd be doing is treading water compared to two years ago. Not exactly an ambitious goal. I think it's achievable.

In a way, I'm more concerned about the offense. Last year was something of a high water mark for us in terms of our relative position in the league (7th in runs scored was the highest since 2004). I think we can equal or exceed that, but there certainly is room to get worse.

69.5 wins is a pretty reasonable over/under. I think we'll be over, but then, I always think that, and I'm usually wrong.