Jump to content

Flaherty as defensive replacement for Reynolds


CA-ORIOLE

Recommended Posts

For someone who whines about the "wrong" kind of WAR you really don't understand what "value" means in baseball.

rWAR or fWAR, he was basically a replacement level player last year. rWAR says he's an average 1.2 WAR player and fWAR says hes about an 1.8 for his career. That's basically below what you'd want for a starter. He's not very good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 133
  • Created
  • Last Reply
rWAR or fWAR, he was basically a replacement level player last year. rWAR says he's an average 1.2 WAR player and fWAR says hes about an 1.8 for his career. That's basically below what you'd want for a starter. He's not very good.

Considering he was above two rWAR twice with the Diamondbacks, and at 1.9 fWAR or above three times, using averages--particularly when they are brought down by his twice-as-bad-in-half-a-season defensive year in Baltimore--aren't a good way to look at things.

If his defense is merely below-average--and two games is certainly not enough to judge this season on even without looking at his career--he'll have plenty of value and be fine at third base for the Orioles.

So to say he's "not very good" is, well, not very good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Considering he was above two rWAR twice with the Diamondbacks, and at 1.9 fWAR or above three times, using averages--particularly when they are brought down by his twice-as-bad-in-half-a-season defensive year in Baltimore--aren't a good way to look at things.

If his defense is merely below-average--and two games is certainly not enough to judge this season on even without looking at his career--he'll have plenty of value and be fine at third base for the Orioles.

So to say he's "not very good" is, well, not very good.

Chasing annual fluctations of volatile defensive metrics isn't really a good strategy. He is what he is.....a 1.2-1.8 WAR player with a 5 year track record...below to well below average for what is normally considered a starter level player. I'd consider that "not very good". Any player can potentially improve, but I don't see much reason to think Mr. Reynolds will get better considering his limitations in all aspects of the game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chasing annual fluctations of volatile defensive metrics isn't really a good strategy. He is what he is.....a 1.2-1.8 WAR player with a 5 year track record...below to well below average for what is normally considered a starter level player. I'd consider that "not very good". Any player can potentially improve, but I don't see much reason to think Mr. Reynolds will get better considering his limitiations in all aspects of the game.

He's put up 113 oRAR (BR, positionally adjusted) and 45.8 oRAR (FG, unadjusted).

Even if I conceded the defensive side, declaring him limited "in all aspects" is just not true.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's put up 113 oRAR (BR, positionally adjusted) and 45.8 oRAR (FG, unadjusted).

Even if I conceded the defensive side, declaring him limited "in all aspects" is just not true.

By limited, I don't see much more upside to improve on his offense and perhaps get up to mid 800 OPS or higher level. I see him staying at about a 113-117 wRC+, which is fine. It seams to me he's getting more and more exposed to offspeed stuff......and then you have that K rate etc. If there was more potential for offensive upside then I could see him at DH/1b (probably where he should be right now imo), but the argument has already been made/shown that his offense won't really play well and his "best value" is at third (which isn't that great). Then we get into his salary etc. I get it that he looks promising but I think we're chasing something that's just going to frustrate everybody in the end. I just don't see it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He just isn't a good 3B, he costs us outs. I remember people getting on Melvin Mora and was pretty good over there. But they give Reynolds a pass? Makes no sense to me.

I don't think anyone is giving him a pass. He needs to be better than last year. But the folks in your camp seem to think Reynolds' major league debut was in April of last year. They totally gloss over the fact he was a reasonably competent major league third baseman from '07-'10. If we're going to have any number of attempted comeback stories on the '12 Orioles why should be favor Reimold's or Chris Davis' or Matusz' or Arrieta's over hoping Reynolds' glove returns to its pre-2011 form?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chasing annual fluctations of volatile defensive metrics isn't really a good strategy. He is what he is.....a 1.2-1.8 WAR player with a 5 year track record...below to well below average for what is normally considered a starter level player. I'd consider that "not very good". Any player can potentially improve, but I don't see much reason to think Mr. Reynolds will get better considering his limitations in all aspects of the game.

I don't see much reason to think he can't mix and match his defensive and offensive capabilities so he's 3+ oWAR and maybe -0.8 dWAR, making him an above-average MLB player.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

People are acting like Reynolds is a statue over there who covers no ground and has no arm.

People are also acting like he has always been as bad at third as he showed last year.

None of that is true.

He has the talent and skill set to play third at a slightly below average level but they are a lot of defensive players out there where that statement is the case.

If he gives us a 340+ OBP, 30+ homers and slightly below average defense at third, a weak position in MLB, that puts him in the average to above average third base category and for his salary, that's not bad at all.

Would we like someone better? Of course. But with third base being so weak around the league, we could do a lot worse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While it is tempting to look at two shaky games to begin the season and say "see -- same Reynolds as last year," I suggest that people just take a breath and let things play out. If he's not cutting it by late May I expect Buck to make changes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't see much reason to think he can't mix and match his defensive and offensive capabilities so he's 3+ oWAR and maybe -0.8 dWAR, making him an above-average MLB player.

Sure, maybe he can have a year (or even a few years) like that depending on how long he plays, but if hes a 1.2 - 1.8 WAR guy on average that's what he's likely to average going forward. I don't see any reason to believe otherwise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

People are acting like Reynolds is a statue over there who covers no ground and has no arm.

People are also acting like he has always been as bad at third as he showed last year.

None of that is true.

He has the talent and skill set to play third at a slightly below average level but they are a lot of defensive players out there where that statement is the case.

If he gives us a 340+ OBP, 30+ homers and slightly below average defense at third, a weak position in MLB, that puts him in the average to above average third base category and for his salary, that's not bad at all.

Would we like someone better? Of course. But with third base being so weak around the league, we could do a lot worse.

His rate of defense is minus 10.5 - minus 12 /per 150 by UZR/DRS. That's not "slightly below average" defense. That's bad defense. If he gives us a 340 OBP is a huge stretch imo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think anyone is giving him a pass. He needs to be better than last year. But the folks in your camp seem to think Reynolds' major league debut was in April of last year. They totally gloss over the fact he was a reasonably competent major league third baseman from '07-'10. If we're going to have any number of attempted comeback stories on the '12 Orioles why should be favor Reimold's or Chris Davis' or Matusz' or Arrieta's over hoping Reynolds' glove returns to its pre-2011 form?
Because people have seen Matusz, Reimold, Arrieta perform well prior to last year, they think it is possible for them to do so again. They have never seen Reynolds play acceptable defense at 3B, and we all know the eye is the true measure of defense, since the numbers can't be trusted.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

His rate of defense is minus 10.5 - minus 12 /per 150 by UZR/DRS. That's not "slightly below average" defense. That's bad defense. If he gives us a 340 OBP is a huge stretch imo.

His OBP has been above 340 twice in his career(or 40% of his ML career as an everyday player) and his average is 331. Its hardly a huge stretch but I do realize that by using that term, it makes your argument look better, so I see why you did it.

In 2010, he was a little above average according to UZR..In 2011, he was a little below.

That is 40% of his ML career as an everyday player. He has shown that he can be in that area of slightly below average...He even showed that he could be better than that.

His 2009 season is evidence that he can put all of that together for one season. He is still young enough to where its not some incredible steep mountain for him to climb to get to that level.

Now, I do agree with you that the most likely outcome for him is a season in 1-2 WAR range....Where you are wrong is how little of a chance you give him to be better than that.

Again, he isn't some bumbling, stumbling fool over at third. People on this site act as if he is Geronimo Berroa in RF. Its not even close to that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

His OBP has been above 340 twice in his career(or 40% of his ML career as an everyday player) and his average is 331. Its hardly a huge stretch but I do realize that by using that term, it makes your argument look better, so I see why you did it.

In 2010, he was a little above average according to UZR..In 2011, he was a little below.

That is 40% of his ML career as an everyday player. He has shown that he can be in that area of slightly below average...He even showed that he could be better than that.

His 2009 season is evidence that he can put all of that together for one season. He is still young enough to where its not some incredible steep mountain for him to climb to get to that level.

Now, I do agree with you that the most likely outcome for him is a season in 1-2 WAR range....Where you are wrong is how little of a chance you give him to be better than that.

Again, he isn't some bumbling, stumbling fool over at third. People on this site act as if he is Geronimo Berroa in RF. Its not even close to that.

Again, utilizing annual fluctuations in UZR is poor logic. It's too dynamic and there is no trend. We have Reynold's rate of efficiency over 5 years in UZR and DRS (which is even worse) and there is no reason that think his 2010 UZR was any more of an anomoly than his 2011 numbers. He's a 10.5 - 12 runs below average defender and quite frankly from what I'm seeing, I see more reason to think he'll be worse than that going forward. The only thing that might save him is guys like Trumbo and Mcab playing third base this year.

As far as him hitting a .340 OBP, I just don't see it. Offense has declined for a reason. The strike zone has expanded and that probably hurts Reynolds who is forced to swing at more offspeed/out of zone pitches.

I do agree with you that the most likely outcome for him is a season in 1-2 WAR range....Where you are wrong is how little of a chance you give him to be better than that.

OK, then we agree. Not sure where you get that I don't think he can't exceed 2 WAR or even quantified the chance..... I just look at the average/probability. From what I'm seeing I see no reason to think he'll plus out over 2 this particular year. Nor do I want to play that game with any player, but yeah we got him so I hope he does exceeed his norm this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again, utilizing annual fluctuations in UZR is poor logic.

The poor logic is ignoring the improvement he was showing prior to getting here. He had gotten pretty much every year and his last 2 years in Arizona, he showed himself to be more than capable of being good enough at third.

I find it ironic that you are talking about fluctuations as poor logic when really, you are concentrating on what you saw last year and ignoring the improvement he had shown in his CAREER prior to last year.

In 3 of the 4 years in Arizona, he was "fine" over there and the year he wasn't, he was still only costing his team 1 win with his defense...its not that big of a deal.

You bring up his career number...of course, that is much higher because of his awful season last year.

So basically, you are concentrating on one year, which makes his career numbers look much worse and treating it as gospel and yet me, bringing up his improvement and showing what he did in a much larger sample size is somehow "poor logic". That's an interesting theory you have there. Its wrong and awful but interesting nonetheless.

EDIT: Even looking at BBR, coming into last year, his defense cost his team less than 1 win a year in his time in Arizona. Again, that's not great or anything but its not awful and certainly not as bad as last year here in BMore. What we saw last year is a killer. What he did in Zona was "good enough to get by".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • Posts

    • If they added Brebbia and Erceg to bolster the pen. I’d pass on Kimbrel. He’s been mostly good but when he’s bad it’s been bad.
    • There is a better correlation between strong bullpens and winning in the playoffs vs starters. 
    • I went 95 plus … there are 66 games left. .500 the rest of the way gets then to 91. If they play .600 ball that 97. 
    • Can't see that happening unless another great back end option emerges this year (other than Felix). Tiny payroll and Kimbrel has been very good. Unlikely that Felix is back this year and I can't see the plan being for him to have his old usage % next year. 
    • Something tells me he wouldn’t be hurling a 16 LB bowling ball with a hook if he had a UCL tear. But, what do I know … I wouldn’t bother to argue my athletic credentials with him. 
    • I think they will move on from Kimbrel, especially if Felix returns and is healthy later this summer. I think they could make better use of the $12 million or so on the option. 
    • I covered about 15 consecutive All Star games at ESPN. In some of the early years, the players wore the uniforms they played with and seeing those players take batting practice wearing those uniforms was glorious to watch.Over the years I got to see Joe DiMaggio wear a Yankees uniform...Willie Mays wear a Giants uniform, Henry Aaron wearing a Braves uniform. I felt like I was transformed  back in time. It gave me goosebumps. One ASG in Pittsburgh, I saw Brooks Robinson take batting practice wearing his Oriole uniform. I took this picture. I showed it to Brooks years later. He smiled and said, 'Roy, look at the smile on my face. I loved to wear that uniform and take batting practice wearing it." Then he said something that moved me. He said, wistfully, "Thats the LAST time I ever took batting practice wearing my uniform for the Orioles." I believe MLB lost its soul a  little bit when they went for those silly "Beer League" uniforms, and those ridiculous day-glo colors too. Baseball, for me, more than ANY other sport is about tradition and legacy. Those All Star uniforms we saw the other night were almost vulgar, and something close to an insult on the tradition and history of the game.Brooks Robinson is gone now, and so are many who PROUDLY wore those uniforms and made history wearing them.I feel honored that I got to take Brooks Robinson taking batting practice for the last time wearing that uniform. I hear baseball, next year will go back to the tradition using the standard (not those grotesque city connect) uniforms and it will re- acquaint the nation with the uniforms the way they SHOULD look in a classic exhibition.It's never too late to honor the game and the uniforms great players wore doing great things.I just wish baseball would have gotten the message about 10 years ago.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...